Ken Rosenthal checked in this week with a piece on A.J. Burnett that, while a bit flimsy in its statistical analysis, made two important points. The first:
Yet earlier in Yankees camp, I demonstrated my theory to Burnett by showing him some numbers — specifically, a career comparison to Red Sox righty Josh Beckett. Pretty darn close.
Pitcher W-L ERA Opponents’ OPS
Burnett 110-100 3.99 .701
Beckett 112-74 3.96 .709Yet, Beckett’s reputation far exceeds Burnett’s, in large part because of his stellar postseason history with the Marlins and Red Sox.
I’m not trying to discredit Beckett. I’m not trying to artificially inflate Burnett. All I’m saying is the perception of Burnett is worse than his actual performance — or at least, his performance when you remove his enormous talent and contract from the equation.
Just to be clear, I am not ratifying Rosenthal’s conclusion that Burnett is Beckett’s equal, as adjusted advanced metrics suggest that there is in fact a small gap between the two players. Furthermore, Beckett is three years younger than Burnett, and has a playoff resume that certainly needs to be considered. However, Rosenthal is right on the money when he says that there is a massive gap in the way the two pitchers are perceived that is unwarranted. Leaving Beckett aside, I think this is illustrative of the broader perception of Burnett as being an underachiever who, after last season, is not very good. While Burnett has never been an ace, he has crafted a fine career as a very good #2 starter, yet gets little credit for it due to the belief that he has “a million dollar arm and a ten cent head.”
That leads us to Rosenthal’s second point:
Yes, Burnett finished last season with a 5.26 ERA, the worst ever by a Yankees starter who pitched at least 180 innings. His 1.94-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio was his worst over a full season since 2001.
But consider the bigger picture: Burnett’s ERA ranged from 3.44 to 4.07 in his prior six seasons — two with the Marlins, three with the Jays, one with the Yankees. He also has proved far more durable than he was earlier in his career, making 33 or more starts in each of the past three years.
Those numbers do not lie.
As Rosenthal notes, when you put aside the perceptions regarding Burnett, you will likely discover that last season was an outlier for him, and that he has a reasonable chance of bouncing back in 2011. A few weeks ago, I looked at the projections for AJ, and it seems likely that he will put up another season of 180+IP with a FIP around 4.35. While that would still mean that he is being overpaid, it is quite solid for a #3 starter in the AL East and would likely be adequate for a team with an offense and bullpen as strong as the Yankees have. If he does turn things around and contributes in a meaningful way to the 2011 Yankees, maybe more fans will realize that A.J. Burnett does not suck.
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8 Responses to Rosenthal: Burnett Doesn’t Suck
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TIQ IQ
It’s times like these I wish Rosenthal would go deeper into the numbers…
Beckett- 3.96 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 8.51 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, (33.2 WAR in 246 GS/1528 IP)
Burnett- 3.99 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, 8.23 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, (31.5 WAR in 277 GS/1770 IP)
While Burnett does indeed “not suck” (haha) he is not as close to Beckett as Rosenthal believes he is and the more advanced numbers show why Beckett is a better pitcher.
Lets also not forget the postseason where Beckett has a 3.07 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, 9.51 K/9, 2.02 BB/9 in 13 GS/93 IP.
While it is true that Beckett has better post season numbers then Burnett it should also be noted that in his last three post season appearances in 2008-2009 Beckett has an era of 7.20, 9.64 and 5.20 respectively.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckejo02.shtml
He did put up great post season numbers early in career but that has not been the case in the last three series that he has pitched in. He is clearly not the same pitcher he once was.
Beckett has lost velocity over the last few seasons and as a result his 2 pitch tendencies have started to catch up to him more and more, however the same can be said for Burnett so the comparison is still valid, and since they both pitched for the Marlins and then when East they have a similar history of opponents faced.
Ken Rosenthal is right. Beckett sucks, too. :wink:
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The important question for me, though, is not whether his career defines him as a good #2 pitcher, but what he is likely to do in 2011. And somewhere or other I saw a run of numbers that suggest that pitchers who suddenly have bad seasons at the age of 35 generally don’t come back. I don’t know if that’s predictive for Burnett, but that is the question.
What other pitchers did at 35 doesn’t really apply to someone like Burnett because even though he has lost some of his velocity he isn’t in the aged Mike Mussina/Andy Pettitte velocity level. He still has the stuff to put up good numbers and pitch effectively but for AJ the most important part is and has always been repeating his mechanics, it’s not something he has ever been real crisp with and since he relies on 1 breaking pitch and a fastball it becomes even more important.
Burnett more than velocity need sink and break, sink on the fastball and tight break on the curve, you get these by having a nice downward plane and staying on top of the baseball. When AJ’s mechanics get out of whack he stays on the side of the baseball and as a result his fastball rises leaving it very hittable and his curve moves side to side more than down on a nice tight break.
He doesn’t throw many changes and though he has integrated a 2 seamer a lot more into his arsenal he still relies on a 4 seamer more, he’s not going to fool anyone and this makes being mechanically sound even more important.
The biggest thing that separates Beckett from Burnett to me is that Beckett has always been a prick, by that I mean he is a very self confident guy who also don’t care what anyone else thinks about him and while this doesn’t make for the nicest person to talk too it makes for one hell of a pitcher (when they have good stuff). Beckett makes a mistake in a ball game and he’s getting made, not at himself but at the batter and he intends on making you pay with the next pitch, he easily puts his mistakes behind him and focuses on what the task at hand is. AJ has always SEEMED, and I use this word for a reason since I am not in his head, like he gets upset with himself on the mound and his body language makes you believe that he doesn’t easily shake off giving up a HR before going on to the next pitch and he has all but admitted such on occasion. I think this plays a major role in why he “loses” his mechanics for so long, every pitcher is going to get out balance mechanically from time to time but the best are able to correct themselves in game and salvage an outing before it gets too bad. With AJ I just never got the feeling he was ever fully letting mistakes go, he tries you can see that but like last year in Fenway he just seemed like after that first HR the flood gate just opened up.
[...] reading Moshe’s post analyzing Ken Rosenthal’s piece comparing A.J. Burnett to Josh Beckett the other day, I was [...]