The following was inspired by this tweet from Moshe:
People wouldn’t give Nova for Liriano? Madness.
To hug or not to hug–that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous growing pains
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing trade them.
Like all things in this world, we must walk a tight line when it comes to dealing with prospects. We’ve got to decide whether we want the organization to keep them or use them as trade bait. We’ve got to decide how much (or little) we value them based on their ages, upsides, respective proximity to the majors, positions, floors, ceilings…and a whole host of other things.
The man point here, though, is the former in that paragraph. Do we want to keep (hug) these prospects or let them go? Again, we’ve got that we must tread on in a nuanced fashion. There are varying degrees with which we must hug our favorite minor league players.
Let’s take Moshe’s example. That is absolutely ridiculous. Anyone saying the Yankees shouldn’t trade Ivan Nova for Liriano is being ridiculous. There’s obviously risk involved with Francisco Liriano and it wouldn’t be a straight-up trade, but if Nova’s in the package, you should be fine with that part. He may look like a nice back end piece now, but he’s got limited upside at best. He is not one we should hug too tightly. Guys like Brandon Laird also fall into this category. He may have a bat that’s at least mildly intriguing, but he lacks a true position and doesn’t have a fit on the Yankees now or in the foreseeable future. Eduardo Nunez epitomizes this group. He may have value to the team now because he can play an acceptable shortstop and he won’t embarrass himself by striking out a ton, but he has basically no upside. What he is now is what he’ll be later.
The guys we know we should hug tightly are obvious: Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, and to a lesser extent, Gary Sanchez, despite his distance from the Majors. The once who require a little more thought are the guys like Adam Warren, Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, and Dellin Betances. Warren and Noesi have polish and are safe bets, but they don’t have as much upside as Brackman and Betances. And while the latter two have a ton of upside, they’re bigger risks than the former two. Here, I think we should hug, but not so tightly.
We must also remember that no one is untouchable. Even members of the trio I proposed we hug the tightest could (and should) be traded in the right package for the right piece(s). Still, we need to be extremely discriminating when thinking about parting with those guys. The first group, the most loosely hugged, they are ripe for the trading. Strike while the iron is hot (lukewarm?). The middle group, again, is like a hybrid. We can cling relatively tightly to them since they will likely have value to the team in some form or another in the soon-enough future. But, we should be much more willing to part with them than the Montero-Banuelos-Sanchez type trio.
I’ll leave you today with a warning: no matter how much we hug, no matter how much we want to see the team’s prospects succeed, we must be cold and detached when those players part and we must be cold and detached when analyzing their potential values. As soon as we get emotional, we lose the sense of what we may have in these young players. It’s fun to get worked up and excited about players like these, but it hurts less when we see them go if we step back just a little bit.
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10 Responses to On Prospect Hugging
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TIQ IQ
totally agree with Moshe here, there’s a lot to like about Nova with his stuff and projectable frame, however his numbers in the minors simply do not show him to have the potential to be an upper-echelon guy like Liriano is. The great thing about the Yankees is they have the money and resources to be able spend when they want to and use a guy like Nova as a piece for something better. Sure, Liriano has his question marks, but considering his strikeout rates and his age (27) if the biggest piece the Twins are asking for is Nova I say nice knowing you Ivan, hope you like Minny.
There is a difficult to quantitate value in developing and retaining one’s own prospects.
Players acquired mid-career can be firmly embraced as “true Yankees”, especially when they blossom more fully as Bombers, e.g., Paul O’Neill, or excel and bring a championship, e.g., C.C. Having said that, one of the true joys of being a fan is watching a prospect develop into a productive major leaguer. In Cashman we must trust to strike the right balance.
If the deal hinges on Nova it’s a no brainer for the Yankees. As the Nike ad used to say “Just Do It”. Besides replacing Nova after a trade like this isn’t that difficult. Come the trade deadline Brackman will probably be called up. He can certainly slot in as the #5 starter if they move Nova for Liriano. A starting rotation for the Yankees of: CC, Hughes, Liriano (if they get him), AJ Burnett and then finally Garcia and Brackman splitting time after the All Star game sounds pretty sweet to me. Then depending how Burnett does in 2011 he either stays around for the last 2 years of his contract or the Yankees eat part of his contract and trade him to a NL team. Then for 2012 the Yankees could be looking at a rotation of: CC, Hughes, Liriano with 4 prospects (Brackman, Banuelos, Betances and Noesi) competing for the final 2 slots. Then maybe Warren and say Romine could be used to sign another “quality pitcher” for the 2012 season. Obviously this is all speculation but may be just may be the pieces could fall into place.
I missed most of this outcry due to travel reasons, but I’m stunned that any Yanks fan would want to hang onto Nova instead of Liriano.
I have a hard time crediting the Twins dealing Liriano for Nova and a few B-C prospects-especially if it’s to the Yankees. They’ve shown a propensity to overcharge NYY in recent years, and (unless there’s an undisclosed physical problem) his value is likely to rise as the weeks pass.
I think this is one of those rumors that is the result of some writer’s imagination.
(Would I trade Nova and a couple of below 3-star prospects? In a cold minute.)
It has happened for generations. Fans always over value prospects. They want to fall in love with the home grown guys.
2012 rotation: CC, Hughes, Yu Darvish, Brackman, Betances.
I can dream, can’t I?
I’m intrigued by Darvish myself, although given that we really have no idea how he’ll translate stateside — and despite his otherworldy numbers in Japan — I think I’d probably slot him 4th or 5th in a hypothetical projected MLB rotation until proven otherwise.
To me, it is almost the same with our older players…we hold on to them for what they have done, not for what they will do.
Age is stronger then talent…age goes on but, talent diminishes.
reasonable advise but funny coming from an incorrigible Joba-hugger.