While driving home from my girlfriend’s on Sunday night, I flipped on WFAN after I got tired of the shuffle button. The host, Adam the Bull I believe, was discussing the fact that Jose Reyes‘ contract will expire after this season. He mentioned that there is a relatively large segment of Mets fans who would not be sad if Reyes didn’t return to the cavernous confines of Citi Field. He continued to say that he thinks those fans might want to rethink that position, mentioning Reyes’ talent and, of course, the rather thin free agent pool for shortstops:
Yuniesky Betancourt MIL *
Rafael Furcal LAD
J.J. Hardy BAL
John McDonald TOR
Augie Ojeda ARZ
Jose Reyes NYM
Ramon Santiago DET
Marco Scutaro BOS *
Jack Wilson SEA
Jimmy Rollins isn’t on that list, but add him. Via the Cot’s Phillies page, his contract is up after this season as well. As we can see, there are not any shortstops who seem to represent an upgrade over Reyes for the Mets. The host also reiterated the point that shortstop is not exactly a deep position these days; there aren’t many shortstops better than Jose Reyes, he argued. I agree.
The last two seasons have not been all that kind to Reyes. He’s been injured and played in just 169 games between 2009-2010. That came after four straight years of playing at least 150 games and amassing at least 700 PAs each year. Despite that success and his age (he’ll be 28 in June), many Mets fans have soured on Reyes.
As Yankee fans, we just went through a similar process–a star shortstop who’s been the face of the franchise for a number of years was up for free agency. Obviously, there are differences between Reyes and Derek Jeter. Jeter was much more established than Reyes is now, was much older than Reyes is now, and was just coming off a much bigger contract than Reyes is now. Still, the situations have at least some similarities: they’re both shortstops, they’re both good hitters, and they’re both important in some way to the franchise of which each is a part.
There is, as we’ve established, going to be a segment of fans that will be happy to let Reyes walk. There was a small contingent of Yankee fans who may’ve said the same about Derek Jeter; granted, not many would’ve wanted Jeter to walk, but many–myself included–wanted to play hardballl with Jeter. I can guarantee that most Mets fans, even ones who rightly want Reyes back, will want to do that with Jose. The market may be thin, but Reyes had some health problems recently (duh) and his bat isn’t quite at Jeter’s level, but he’s still valuable simply because he plays an up-the-middle position and plays it relatively well.
Reyes’ age makes him likely to get a deal as long as Jeter’s, four years, but the aforementioned health issues may not net him any more than that. Jeter was overpaid, though some of that was for non-baseball related things: off field value, just simply being Derek Jeter, all that stuff. I’m not exactly sure what Reyes is going to be paid in his next contract. He’ll make $11M in 2011, so I imagine he’ll get more than that. I’ll also venture that the Mets will not sign Reyes during the exclusive negotiating period as they’ll want to see what the market for him will shape up to be. If I had to guess now, I think Reyes ends up signing for 4/48, but that might be a bit conservative, and is assuming he has a good season in 2011.
The ultimate destination is also the same: Jose Reyes, like Derek Jeter, will be playing in his only Major League home in 2012 and beyond. The internal options for the Mets do not represent any sort of upgrade over Reyes (assuming health and performance in 2011) and the external options–listed above–are not even good, let alone an upgrade over Reyes. Get used to him, New York. Reyes will likely be here to stay.
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11 Responses to Looking at Reyes Through the Jeter Lens
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TIQ IQ
Could there actually be a workable scenario in this situation with the Yankees pursuing Reyes and going to the captain to have him help Reyes adjust to the Yankee way while moving to an outfield/dh slot for a couple of years?
Honestly, I don’t see it. For starters, Jeter’s bat doesn’t play in LF or RF and he probably no longer has the athleticism or defensive chops for CF. He certainly doesn’t have the bat to be a full-time DH.
Spending upwards of $40-50M to bring in Reyes in order to displace either Granderson or Swisher from the everyday lineup doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
If the Yankees wanted Reyes, they should’ve offered Jeter arbitration or a one-year contract and proceeded accordingly. Once they gave Jeter a long-term extension, I think they more or less accepted that he’ll be the everyday shortstop for at least the next two seasons, and perhaps longer.
Yes, Reyes’ bat isn’t quite at Jeter’s level. In a related story, Snooki isn’t quite as tall as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
Putting Reyes, a failed New York baseball player, in the same sentence as Derek Jeter, the greatest New York baseball player of the last 40 years, is an insult to Jeter. Which would be fine, I suppose… if we were Met fans. Thank God we’re not.
How is Reyes “a failed New York baseball player” exactly? Because he hasn’t won a World Series title? Because he’s a bit more effervescent on the field than most Yankee fans appreciate? Because he hasn’t plowed through Maxim’s Top-100 girls?
I’m not quite following the logic.
Gotta agree with MJ, he may have been hurt in the recent past but when healthy Reyes is one of the best SS in the league and can swipe 40+ bags a year.
Sandy Alderson doesn’t seem overly impressed. And anyway, with the Wilpons’ financial situation, it’s not very likely Reyes stays on the Mets’ payroll.
I’d say Sandy Alderson is a dunce if he jettisons Reyes just because he’s dogmatic about certain criteria without having a little flexibility in that Marine Corps worldview.
The Mets can afford Reyes, even with a pending Madoff litigation (or settlement agreement) and even with dwindling attendance. They have $36.5M in dead money coming off the books just in the expiration of Beltran’s, Perez’s and Castillo’s contracts. There’s no reason why the Mets can’t keep Reyes. If they don’t, it’s because they didn’t want to, not because of the team’s financial situation.
He’s a SS, he’s not 30 and you have no other replacement, if the Mets can’t keep Reyes they are in worse shape than anyone knows.
With Reyes’ health issues the last couple of years, do you really think he’ll get 4/$48, even with the realitively weak FA market? He’s never been a top offensive player (maybe strong for a SS, but not top) and with his injuries, will he be as solid defensively? Guess a lot depends on 2011.
Rafael Furcal got a 3Y/$30M contract with a $12M option for a fourth year if he reaches 600 PA’s. If Furcal can walk away with a maximum of 4Y/$42M, I don’t see why Reyes, six years Furcal’s junior, can’t match or beat him on the free agent market.
I think 4Y/$48M seems pretty rational, even with his injury history. He’s a career 23.3 bWAR player (2.9/season) which would roughly equate to between $13-$14M in the open market.
A premium position with no other capable alternatives except for an aging Rollins as his competition? Reyes will get his money. Now, if it’s not from the Mets, it’ll be from someone else.
I think you are really underestimating the contract numbers Reyes will get if he goes through 2011 healthy. A healthy Reyes is a switch hitting Carl Crawford playing SS. The Red Sox made Crawford the highest paid OF. Reyes will be worth much more than you say. And the teams that will be going for him in this order will be 1.Yankees, 2. Phillies and 3. Red Sox