The 2011 season has yet to begin, but Baseball Prospectus recently ran a piece by Jeff Euston looking at the AL East payroll projections for this season and beyond. The 2012 Yankee payroll caught my eye for a few reasons, and there’s reason to believe that next off season will be as quiet as this past one in terms of major moves. Here’s the breakdown:
New York Yankees
Projected 2011 payroll: $203,410,714 (1st)
2010 payroll: $213,359,389 Opening Day (1st), $215,053,064 year-end (1st)
Future commitments: $153.161 million for 2012, $125.911 million for 2013, $76.411 million for 2014, $69.411 million for 2015, $44.125 million for 2016, $21 million for 2017.
The Yanks have 50 mil coming off the books. . . maybe. Let’s dispose of a few things that are very likely to happen right off the bat. CC and Soriano will opt out, assuming both are healthy and have a good season. The Yanks will pick up the 14 mil option on Robinson Cano, whose value was 25.5 mil last year. Nick Swisher‘s option is 10.25 mil. He was worth in 15 mil 09 and 16.4 last year, and looking at the available RF in 2012 he’s probably the best one available even if he wasn’t signed. Barring a Xavier Nady-esque catastrophic injury, the Yanks bring ole Swishalicious back at that price. Let’s assume that (since Cashman was opposed to his signing in the first place) Soriano walks and gets a 3 year deal somewhere and they bring CC back with a year or two tagged on to the end of his contract at the same 24 mil rate. That brings the Yankee payroll to 163.16 before we get to the arb guys.
Russell Martin is entering his 4th year of arbitration, so if he has a good season he will be in line for a big pay raise over the 4 mil he’s scheduled to earn this year. But given the Yankee depth at Catcher, Martin is much more likely to be traded than ever see that arb hearing as a Yankee. Boone Logan is a 3rd year arb guy, so figure as a LOOGY he gets his 1.2 mil doubled next year, or thereabouts. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are 2nd year arb candidates, so let’s estimate both get their salaries (1.4/2.7 mil respectively) doubled as well. Brett Gardner and David Robertson are both in their 1st year of arbitration, and each earned roughly 450K last year. Give them a mil a piece. That takes our estimated 2012 payroll to 175.76 mil before the ‘Director of Spending‘ goes about his work.
But where? The only glaring need we can see right now is the same one they have this year in Spring Training, and that’s for a starting pitcher. In my scenario they have a rotation of CC, AJ, Hughes with Ivan Nova and the Killer Bs all as possibilities for 2012. Looking at the list of 2012 free agents, there aren’t any really enticing rotation candidates out there. The oft-injured Chris Carpenter will be 37 years old. Mark Buehrle isn’t the type of hard thrower that the Yankees typically target. Edwin Jackson‘s results have never matched his stuff, and we have one of those already. Oswalt and Wainwright’s options will almost certainly be picked up if they’re healthy, and if they’re not healthy you don’t want them. The rest of that list is loaded with pitchers that when faced with the prospect of signing them, you’d rather look from within or to the trade route to fill your needs.
We would also be well served to expect the unexpected. Injuries can change everything. A mid season trade for a starter under team control for a few seasons could bridge the gap between 2011 and the (hopeful) arrival of one or more of the Killer Bs. What if CC really wants to go back to California? What if Joba’s rediscovered his old velocity? The Yankee rationale for burying him in the bullpen was largely based on the thought that he never recovered from the shoulder injury in 08, and his ‘stuff played up’ in the bullpen. Could they rethink that position and look to make him a starter next year if Joba’s throwing 98-100 MPH this June? Perhaps. Or maybe they leave him in the pen and pencil him in as the Closer-in-waiting for the day when Mariano retires, whose contract expires in 2012.
Will Liriano or King Felix become available? I have my doubts either trade will happen. Will another quality starter be made available? History tells us yes. The 2011 season will answer many of these questions for us, but as things stand right now 2012 doesn’t appear to be a year where the Yanks will go on any 2008-like spending spree. Quite the contrary, it could another year like this past off season where the Yankee payroll actually goes down another notch or two. Looking at things as they currently stand, that would be my best guess.
LIKE TYA ON FACEBOOK
- TYA To Merge With It’s About The Money, Stupid
- What about Kevin Youkilis?
- Teix Now Front And Center On The “Needs To Produce” Radar
- Cashman: Heathcott A Dark Horse Candidate
- A Dog Chasing Cars
- Outfield Trade Targets
- The Problem With Brett Gardner
- A Look At Relief Prospect Branden Pinder
- The Yankees Should Be Realistic, Put Team on Short Leash in 2013
- Briefly discussing the internal options to replace Curtis Granderson
- Brand bc on Briefly discussing the internal options to replace Curtis Granderson
- http://2804lasela.wordpress.com/ on TYA Predictions: Bold predictions for 2012
- the tao of badass pdf on What about Austin Romine?
- Joey Parkhill on Dante Bichette Jr’s Swing
- lululemon factory outlet on Contact Us
- Cary on Will R.A. Dickey’s Knuckleball Succeed In A Domed Stadium?
- Brenna on Links: Prospects, Support for A-Rod, Mariano is Love and Who’s in Center?
- Louis Vuitton Outlet Sale Singapore on The Monthly Prospector: April Edition
- Authentic Louis Vuitton Outlet Store on The Monthly Prospector: June Edition
- Louis Vuitton Outlet San Diego on Banuelos to Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Yankees Prospectors to Undergo Grief Counseling
TagsA.J. Burnett Alex Rodriguez Andy Pettitte Austin Romine Baltimore Orioles Bartolo Colon Boston Red Sox Brett Gardner Brian Cashman Bullpen CC Sabathia Chien-Ming Wang Cliff Lee Curtis Granderson David Robertson Dellin Betances Derek Jeter Francisco Cervelli Freddy Garcia Game Recap Hiroki Kuroda Ivan Nova Javier Vazquez Jesus Montero Joba Chamberlain Joe Girardi Johnny Damon Jorge Posada Manny Banuelos Mariano Rivera Mark Teixeira Melky Cabrera Michael Pineda New York New York Yankees Nick Johnson Nick Swisher Phil Hughes Prospects Rafael Soriano Red Sox Robinson Cano Russell Martin Tampa Bay Rays Yankees