One pill is for the short term.
One pill is for the long term.
Let’s go with the latter first. CC Sabathia‘s opt-out clause. I haven’t talked about this issue at all since it was reported during the signing (at least I think I haven’t), much less tackled it; now that it’s looming in the distance, I figured it’s about time to at least muse about the big man’s option.
The first concern is the 2012 rotation. If Sabathia opts out–which I’m convinced he will–the Yankees rotation will look pretty shoddy. A Sabathia departure would mean a potential rotation of Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova, Andrew Brackman, and Hector Noesi/David Phelps/someone else. Because of this, I’m more than sure the Yankees would at least try to re-sign Sabathia to a deal with a bit more money than the $94M left on the last four years of his contract. The minimum, I think, would be a 5/100 offer from the Yankees. That will stem from one thing: the complete dearth of good starting pitching on the market for the 2011-2012 offseason. Via Cot’s:
Mark Buehrle CWS
Chris Carpenter STL *
Aaron Cook COL *
Kyle Davies KC
Zach Duke ARI
Edwin Jackson CWS
Scott Kazmir LAA *
Paul Maholm PIT
Jason Marquis WAS
Scott Olsen PIT *
Roy Oswalt PHI *
Oliver Perez NYM
Joel Pineiro LAA
Brian Tallet STL
Tim Wakefield BOS
C.J. Wilson TEX
* = Options
The only options I even remotely like are Chris Carpenter and Roy Oswalt but they’re both advanced in age and I wouldn’t feel comfortable having them sign contracts of more than two-three years. But, is that realistic?
Sabathia will be right to take advantage of the option he has. It’s going to put the Yankees in an incredibly tough spot in terms of contract negotiations and they may have to sink even more money into Sabathia if they want to keep him. The alternatives on the free agent market are underwhelming at best and I’m not even going to try and speculate about the trade market a year from now.
There is always the chance that the Yankees just let CC walk if he opts out. Let’s not pretend like there isn’t some upside to this. It would free the Yankee payroll up a lot and it would mean that some other team would be paying for Sabathia’s decline years. But at the same time, what would that payroll be freed up for? The pitching options aren’t very good and Sabathia would leave a large figurative hole in the rotation, as we’ve seen. Yesterday, friends of the blog @jaydestro and @JamalGr kicked around the idea of biting the 2012 bullet pitching wise and attempting to cash in on a pitching heavy free agent class in 2012-2013. Jamal saw the plus side to that, Jay the negative. I’m not sure the Yankee front office will go for that, but if they let Sabathia go, they may just have to.
I can’t say that I’ll blame Sabathia when he opts out. It makes sense for both his job security and financial well being because he’ll likely get more than four years and more than $94M in free agency, whether it’s with the Yankees or someone else.
The other pill to swallow, the short term pill, is about….sigh…Kevin Millwood. I’ve been against the idea of signing Millwood for the entire off season. I think he’ll require a Major League deal and he’s just…not a good pitcher anymore. But, the proverbial worm is starting to turn Millwood’s way.
Mike analyzed the situation earlier this week and I came to a similar conclusion: he’s more likely to throw a substantial amount of innings than the other options are, even in a best case scenario. I took Mike’s numbers a step farther and punched them into the WAR Spreadsheet. These are the results I got:
Bill James Projection: 202 IP, 4.34 FIP, 2.8 WAR
Marcels Projection: 175 IP, 4.61 FIP, 1.9 WAR
CAIRO Projection: 182 IP, 4.84 FIP, 1.5 WAR
PECTOA Projection: 175 IP, 4.75 FIP, 1.6 WAR
For a fifth starter, those are more than acceptable projections (don’t forget about the grain of salt to take with projections). Right now, Millwood looks like a good enough option that it’s worth throwing him some sort of deal. We must remember, though, that the market for him is nearly non-existent. If the Yankees can get him on a minor league deal, they should do it. If Millwood demands a Major League deal, it’s still something worth considering; there’s no way he could get a high salary at this point.
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14 Responses to Potential Pills to Swallow
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TIQ IQ
Great look at the CC situation. I agree with the idea that if not CC, who gets that money? Eventually you need to bet on a starter aging well, or you’ll never end up with a top starter.
I’m in the side of just letting CC go once he opts out, he is a real risk as he ages considering he is already suffering knee surgeries and even with losing the weight he still weights some 290 pounds according to himself.
The option that people are forgetting that helps out in letting CC go is if we make a trade for a Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano type, if we bring in a guy with top of the line stuff who is younger than Sabathia then it would ease the loss of CC next season and give us a ton of money to acquire another starter in the more pitching rich free agent class.
The Yankees are going to trade for someone this season for the rotation, I think we all agree that will happen and depending on who they trade for will help decide the CC situation and I bet Cashman will have Sabathia in mind when looking at a Liriano trade.
You can’t bank on a pitching class two years down the road though. If I remember correctly, once upon a time this class looked pretty decent too.
Thanks for the mention, Matt. However, Jay and me were actually disagreeing on the topic. He felt the risk of having the rotation destroyed for 2012 and the risk of not ending up with any of those numerous options available on the FA market that following off-season was greater than paying Sabathia through his decline years. @EricSan was the lone one who agreed with me.
Ah, got it. I’ll change the wording of the post, then. Thanks for the clarification.
I’m not sure CC will opt out. But even if he does I can see the Yankees offering him a 5 year deal come the 2012 season for $125MM. He’s still will only be 32 years old midway through the 2012 season. He wouldn’t be any older then Lee for example when his contract with the Phillies expires, or Oswalt if he got a couple of years in 2012 or Carpenter is just about now. I really don’t see the downside to a small increase and an extra year for Sabathia. As for freeing up money for the 2013 class of pitchers. Posada will come off the books in 2012, Rivera in all likelihood in 2013 and Burnett in 2014 if not sooner via a trade. Also Marte and Igawa come off the books in 2012. That’s close to $50MM in the next couple of years. More then enough money to sign a couple of very, very good pitchers between 2012 and 2013.
What is the benefit to the Yankees in giving Sabathia 125 million and an extra year instead of 94 million? None and what if he wants 7 years and 23-24 million per year? When does the time when players control the Yankees end? I say we take back some team muscle and let him know, opt out and you don’t come back, if he opts out wash our hands and look for a trade if we haven’t already done so mid season this year.
Great article. Some of those pitchers that will become available 2012-2013 could include Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, and Matt Cain. Given the “win every year” mantra of the Yanks though, I can’t envision them writing a year off.
Matt,
Good stuff, and I agree that Carpenter and Oswalt are the most attractive options. But why don’t you like Buehrle as an option? He’s never hurt and always productive. Not a bad option for a 3rd-4th starter in 2012, assuming they bring back CC.
Great post. The only thing I’d like to add is that many scouts feel CC will age better than most pitchers due to the protection his size affords his arm. Unlike Lee, for example, who is quite thin for a pitcher, CC can use his legs more to generate velocity. Provided his girth doesn’t damage his knees he may be better suited to age more like an Andy Pettitte, for example. The same scouts who feel CC will age well also argue that his size is why he has such an excellent injury record.
Others argue that his weight is going to put a lot of strain on aging knees (see knee surgery) and if he continues to injure or wear down his knees he will quickly slip, it’s an IF but a big one.
I think one piece of the puzzle you didn’t mention is what the farm could provide. In a year, we could have multiple prospects banging down the door to either be used in a trade or in the rotation. I don’t have much faith in Betences being healthy enough to be more than a really good reliever but Brackman/Manny/Noesi/Phelps/Warren and even Stoneburner might be in line to get a rotation spot if they put up an insane year. A rotation of Hughes/AJ/Nova/Brackman/Manny looks terrible on paper now but could look quite enticing by the end of the season.
I’m not saying it’s likely that these guys all won’t hit road blocks but it is likely that one of them at the very minimum will be ready to step in and contribute. Considering the ceiling on some of these guys, they could contribute in a huge way
May I ask why you believe in Brackman but not Betances? Neither one is really more “injury prone” than the other, I see a lot of people with this opinion and id like to know why you think that.
For the record I don’t see Brackman having as much upside as Betances and of the two I see Andrew as more likey yo head to the pen.
If all that minor league pitching talent is really there, then I would let CC walk and try to build a young rotation around Phil Hughes and possibly a frontline starter acquired via trade. All of these 7 year deals signed lately are going to look pretty bad in about 4 or 5 years.