I may be in the minority, but I’m just not terribly excited by the prospect of the Yankees potentially trading for Francisco Liriano, which is why I hadn’t bothered to comment on it. But given the number of smart people taking serious looks at it, it seemed worth weighing in on.
Liriano had an unequivocally spectacular year in 2010. 6.0 fWAR (4th-highest total in the AL in 2010) seasons for pitchers don’t exactly grow on trees, nor do 2.66 FIPs over 191.2 innings. Pretty much everything went right for Liriano in 2010: spectacular K/9 (9.44), low-ish BB/9 (2.72), nearly nonexistent HR/9 (0.42) and a superb GB% (53.6%). His season likely would’ve been one for the ages had he not surrendered a .331 BABIP — a mark around the 10th percentile, and by far the worst mark of the top ten AL fWAR pitchers — and been able to strand runners slightly more effectively than 1.1 basis points above average (73.1%), numbers that led to Liriano not only significantly outpitching his 3.62 ERA, but recording the highest positive delta between his ERA and FIP in the AL.
I cite all of this ostensibly to say “let’s see it again.” We know Liriano can be a great pitcher, but he’s really only done it twice — in 2006 (before injuries derailed him for about two-and-a-half seasons) and last season. There’s certainly a lot to like about the idea of a 27-year-old lefthanded near-ace pitching for the Yankees (and again, I’m applying the “near-ace” tag solely because I don’t think Liriano’s done it long enough to be considered a true number-one) who also had the best slider in the American League in 2010. There’s also some concern, regarding whether or not he can stay healthy enough to repeat his elite 2010, along with the fact that he’s only under team control for two more seasons.
If this were a Matt Garza situation where you had three more years of team control, maybe you start thinking about unloading some of your top talent. But for all of Liriano’s excellence, I can’t fathom giving up a bat the likes of which the Yankee farm system has in all likelihood never produced during many of our lifetimes, and I’m be highly reluctant to part with any of the B’s, despite the fact that we have no idea whether any of them will end up panning out.
If I’m the Yankees, I sit this one out, unless the asking price drops from Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos to a package of second-tier prospects. Hey, the Mets were able to extract Johan Santana for yesterday’s garbage, so stranger things have certainly happened. However, you know Bill Smith will ask for the sun, the moon and the stars from the Yanks given that they’re both in the AL, not to mention the fact that the Yankees have likely come to symbolize quite a bit of frustration on the part of Twins’ fans. Smith would really have to be blown away to trade the team’s best pitcher to the Yankees. At the end of the day the Yankees need to pass and wait until the end of the 2012 season, at which point we’ll know if Liriano’s still the goods, and if so, the team can make as lavish an offer as they see fit without surrendering prospects.
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9 Responses to Just say (Liria)no
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TIQ IQ
I’d like to rsvp for the launch party. I’ll bring a 30-pack of Coors light.
It’s all about the Twins’ asking price for me, so I’m somewhat mixed. Liriano’s a great pitcher who showed in 2011 what he can do over a full healthy season. Anyone who trades for him certainly assumes significant risk, but he’s good enough to be worth it, and the Yankees could certainly use him in 2011 and beyond. I agree that Montero should be off the table in this one, and I’d like Banuelos to be as well, but if the Twins would accept a package that doesn’t include those two, I’d have to listen pretty hard.
Hey Larry,
I see my comments from the old site were brought over and I was hoping to read your analysis on my comments, which follow.
I like Liriano and he would undoubtedly improve our chances this year if he remains healthy. The bigger negative here, though, is the talk (if true) of trading Montero and Banuelos for Liriano, which is absolutely insane. And the idea of the Twins lowering their asking price to “a package of second-tier prospects” is (unfortunately) wishful thinking.
But there is a VERY BRIGHT SIDE to this story that no one has commented on yet. If we assume the Twins have indeed asked for Montero and Banuelos for Liriano, it tells us some very interesting and encouraging things about those two prospects.
First of all, the Twins are one of the best teams in baseball at judging young talent. That’s how they remained competitive in the past when they didn’t have the financial resources to compete with bigger budget teams.
But now the Twins do have the financial resources to compete against the bigger budget teams, so their interest in Montero and Banuelos tells us that both of those prospects are truly viable MLB prospects in their view. We already knew that about Montero, of course, but this rumor seems to bode well in terms of Banuelos’ MLB prospects.
The moment I finished this story, the following question immediately came to mind: Why in the world would a team that knows it can compete for the division title be willing to trade their top starter?
Three possibilities occurred to me:
1) The Twins don’t think they can make the playoffs this year and are setting up for a run in two or three years, which seems highly unlikely, given the resigning of Pavano and the return of Morneau in 2011. The Twins are definitely a playoff-caliber team, and they need to keep their fan base happy and keep the turnstiles turning. So, I discount this scenario.
2) The Twins don’t think Liriano can hold up physically much longer and want to get maximum value for him while he’s still healthy. The problem with this scenario is that trading Liriano at this point would likely kill their chances of making the playoffs this year. And if they did manage to make the playoffs, they likely wouldn’t make it past round one without Liriano. So, I discount this scenario.
Which (happily) makes scenario #3 the most likely scenario . . .
3) The only way the Twins can be competitive this year if they trade their #1 starter is if they’re convinced that BOTH Montero and Banuelos will be impact players this year. Most talent evaluators believe Montero’s bat is already major-league ready, and the Twins (unlike the Yankees) wouldn’t need Montero to catch. So that part of this scenario makes perfect sense . . .
But the Twins would still need to replace Liriano’s considerable arm in the rotation, so, unless they have a sure fire pitching prospect ready to step into the #2 spot in the rotation, this rumor (if true) means the Twins believe Banuelos will be ready at some point this year to be an impact pitcher. Let’s hope that’s true . . . because the Yankees certainly need another impact pitcher this year.
I want to reiterate, I absolutely positively do NOT want to trade Montero or Banuelos. I just think this rumor (if true) indicates that one of the better teams in baseball at evaluating young talent seems to feel that both Montero and Banuelos are ready to be impact players at the MLB level in 2011.
What’s your read on the above scenarios, Larry, and any other likely scenarios that didn’t occur to me?
The thing I don’t understand is why trade for Montero when you already have a catcher, first baseman and a glut of corner OF? Montero’s value lies in the fact that at worst he is one of the best DH’s in the league but he could possibly much more than that playing the field, to cut short any chance he has of playing a position at such a young age seems to limit his value and why do that for your best pitcher?
The thinking could then be if you are limiting the value of Montero by forcing him to a career as a DH then maybe you are demanding added value to make up for it in the form of Banuelos and that and not his readiness this year would be their reason for including his name.
The Twins have very little chance at winning the WS even with Liriano this year, maybe getting the best they can for a huge injury risk coming off a season that has peaked his value is really what the Twins are thinking, and if they are going to do that before the year starts go for the juggular and take as many top prospects as possible or don’t do it.
I also believe they will try and take every lost player from us and the only way the will trade his to us is if we wildly overpay (like Montero and Banuelos). Let’s not forget they have to look a fanbase in the face that has lost to the Yankees what 3 years in a row and say “we traded Liriano to the Yankees”, they need a lot to be able to quiet the mob that will form.
Wayne,
Wonderful to see you at the new site! My apologies; I meant to respond to your comment but time got away from me and I have just been absolutely jammed up at this week. I want to give you a thoughtful response, so hopefully I can find some time today. Just wanted to give you a shout and let you know I haven’t forgotten that I owe you a response
Cheers,
Larry
Wayne,
You know, it’s funny. The Twins have — at least in some circles — cultivated this reputation as elite judges of talent, but I have to be frank with you: I just don’t see it. Not that they haven’t had their share of successes — Mauers and Morneaus don’t exactly grow on trees, and they were able to get Liriano for a song — but outside of those three (and Liriano doesn’t really count, since he didn’t come up in their system) I can’t really think of any impact players. Balckburn, Duensing, Slowey and Baker are nice (to a certain extent) pitchers, but they don’t blow anyone away. While I admire the Twins’ organizational philosophy of pounding the strikezone, the flip side of a bunch of soft-tossers not walking anyone is a lot of contact, and when you don’t strike guys out, those extra balls in play are going to start finding holes.
We’re also talking about the franchise that desperately wanted to turn David Ortiz into a doubles hitter, and when he couldn’t do it they released him, and inadvertently giftwrapped the Red Sox their first championship in 86 years or however long it had been. Not only that, but this is the same team that traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
That all being said, yes, I think we as Yankee fans should be very happy that a hypothetical package including Banuelos might in theory get a Liriano deal done. The only thing that concerns me a bit is that the Banuelos hype is starting to near Phil Hughes-like levels. It’s not quite there yet (I don’t know if we’ll ever see one of our rookie starters that heralded ever again), but he’s been showered with praise this offseason, and it sounds like he could really end up being something special.
As far as your three-headed theory, I was actually just poring over the Twins’ 40-man for a 2011 team preview post I’m working on, and I have to tell you: I’m not so sure the Twins are playoff-bound in 2011. They lost a lot more talent than people realize. Quick, name the Twins’ starting 2B and SS for 2011 without looking it up. I had no idea, either. Also, rumors abound that Morneau somehow still isn’t 100%, which, if you’re a Twins fan, is downright scary. How could he not be all the way back from a concussion that occurred nearly 8 months ago? They still have some quality hitters, but the lineup really begins to tail off after the first five hitters or so.
The rotation will probably be serviceably good again in its usual non-dominating Twins-like way. But the bullpen’s another big question mark, after losing Jon Rauch, Crain and Guerrier.
The more I think about it, the more trading Liriano makes more sense from the Twins’ side. However, the Yankees aren’t going to surrender anywhere near as valuable a package as Montero and Banuelos, and unless Bill Smith is willing to pull another Johan and trade his best pitcher for crap, I just don’t see the Yankees and Twins lining up properly in a Liriano deal.
Excellent response, Larry! Thank you. I think you may be underselling the Twins’ ability to both spot and develop talent just a bit though. After all, the young talent you mentioned (such as as their M&M boys and Liriano) aren’t just good, their exceptional, exception, and very good, respectively — and not too many teams can say that. (Picking up Nathan from SF was also a pretty smart move, although I don’t recall what they gave up for him,)
The Santana deal was a poor one, no doubt, but I think that was largely because they were in a bit of a bind because the Yanks and Red Sox didn’t pursue a deal as diligently as the Twins had anticipated. They expected a bidding war and ended up with their anticipated players doing a minuet around the Santana pole, instead. But at least they had the good sense to unload Gomez when the opportunity came a knockin’.
Like all Yankee fans, I’m ticked they let Ortiz go and end up haunting us in Boston, but his increased pop might rightly be attributed more to the juice than the Twins’ approach to grooming him.
Overall, though, you make an excellent case for your read on the situation. Your observations are food for thought after a rough week at work. Thanks again, Larry. I always enjoy your responses, whether I agree with them 100%, 75%, or 0% (which I call the Cashman category). Sorry, couldn’t resist, Larry. Good luck with the new site.
Oh, and I forgot to mention that I know that the Twins are planning on going with a Japanese import at 2B (I believe), but I couldn’t remember his name. Nothing unusual about that, though, because I can never remember the name of that star pitcher we got from Japan. I believe his name was Isukee, or something like that.
So, I guess we’ll find out soon if the Twins are better at picking Japanese talent than we’ve been — other than Matsui, of course, who made up for a lot of Pacific blunders. (I still miss him and that infectious smile of his.)
I agree about keeping Montero, Banuelos and Betances out of any deal but in my mind Brackman doesn’t fit in with this group and if he were the thing standing in the way of trading for Liriano I wouldn’t hesitate to throw him in.
I have said it on TYU but if we are talking trade for Liriano then I think you start the package around Brackman and Gardner (Gardner is a stiff price to pay but his production can be replaced, Liriano’s numbers can’t) and add any Warren like starting pitcher they want and a Adams/Nunez type at the back end, this is unlikely a trade they would accept (they have a crowded outfield already with Cuddyer, Kubel, Young and Span) but I wouldn’t offer anything of more value to them considering all the very valid points already laif forth by this article. Maybe there is even a scenario where we add in Betances and swap Gardner for Young but that seems like something that can’t be done realisticly.
Of course trading Gardner opens up a full can of worms over who starts in LF and Andruw Jones not being good enough but since the trade won’t happen why have that conversation.
Logic says Banuelos has less chance of suceeding long term than Liriano does but he has a similar ceiling, no injury concerns, a better change up and no arm worries over his use of a slider and because of that I wouldn’t put Banuelos in any deal for anything less than a bonefide ace like Felix, Ubaldo or Josh Johnson.