Both Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner had the best years of their respective careers in 2010. Gardner posted a .358 wOBA and Cano posted a .389 mark. For Gardner, it was a 21 point increase over 2009 and for Cano, it was a 12 point increase over his previous career high wOBA (.377 in 2006). I’ve said it before many times and even after this, I’m sure I’ll say it again: it’s at least a little likely that neither player hits that well again in his career.
When more carefully considering the two, though, I’m not sure if I want to stick to my original thought. While those are high marks indeed, both players are on the right side of 30. Cano, despite his recent success, still has some upside left. Gardner, who has a track record of adjusting then excelling, has more-than-good-enough on-base skills to keep him above water for (at least) a little while.
Gardner’s low power output may not bode well for continued on-base success but he’s shown, for at least one extended period of time, that he can get on base at a high rate despite low (no) power. Cano’s troubles with walks are still there, despite a walk rate inflated by intentional walks. But, his power is absolutely fantastic (even better considering his position) and he makes good contact (and hits it hard when he does; .180 career IsoP, .322 BABIP).
Let’s get at least vaguely scientific here and look at their projections:
Gardner:
Bill James: .349
Marcel: .341
Fans: .346
CAIRO: .329
The CAIRO is low because it doesn’t take SB/CS into account, and that helps Gardner out a lot. The biggest drop we see here is the Marcel’s one, a 17 point drop to a still respectable .341. Throw in Gardner’s great defense and there’s great value there. I’m comfortable saying that, given those projections, Gardner could hit his .358 wOBA from 2010. Like I’ve always said, I’m not sure if it’s likely, but it’s well within the realm of possibility.
Cano:
Bill James: .371
Marcel: .354
Fans: .379
CAIRO: .372
We see a smaller range here (three systems in the .370s), though Marcel sees a possible large drop off in production from Robbie (a .354 wOBA is still fine, of course).
I’ve called 2010 a career year for both players, and chances are you have too. Hell, there’s no way around it; that statement is true. Neither Cano nor Gardner ever had a season as good as he did in 2010 any other time. Now, of course, the pressing matter is whether or not they can do it again going forward. As baseball fans, we always have to have our doubts. On more fingers than we have, we’ve counted so many players who showed so much incredible promise only to flop; so many players who wowed us one year then made us shrug the next; so many players who’ve shown us the light only to flip the switch right off, even if unintentionally.
But there’s the beauty of baseball, right? There’s the grasp the game has over us. Baseball, more than any other sport in the United States, is a sport of anticipation. We hang while the pitch is in the air. We hang when the ball leaves the bat. We hang on every word. We hang on every breath. We hang on everything when it comes to this beautiful game. And, so, we’ll wait with hope to see if Cano and Gardner can come close to their career years, if they can repeat them, or if they can beat them. Lucky for us, the wait won’t be much longer.
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7 Responses to Cano, Gardner, and Repeatability
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Nice post, Matt. Anecdotally speaking, I have a hard time imagining either player can sustain their level of performance from 2010. With that being said, I don’t see any reason to believe that Cano won’t continue to be very good and Gardner won’t be anything less than a useful contributor (both offensively and defensively).
Nice article, but I do take exception to one thing (something I hear here and most other baseball sites): “Gardner’s low power output may not bode well for continued on-base success”.
There have been quite a few players with little or no power who sustained (and improved) their walks per PA over fairly long careers. Richie Ashburn leaps to mind, as does Eddie Stanky. I think these players (and their converse: sluggers who don’t walk much) have specific skills that lead to the high walk totals, and they don’t need a high SLG to sustain it.
I wouldn’t be surprised even a little bit to see either repeat or exceed last year in the next few seasons.
I think Cano absolutely has the ability to surpass what he did last season and I am very confident that he will do that, I believe Cano is still going to blast 30 HRs in his career and I still stick by my predicition that he will win a batting title at some point in his career.
I know yo can’t just walk around saying someone is going to be a hall of fame player but Cano for sure has the talent level to make it their, whether he does or not is a different story but would you really be all that shocked if he did go on to have that kind of career?
Roberto Alomar of all people recently said that he thinks Cano has the best swing in baseball and I have though for years Cano was a star in the making (once he learned really good english) and I see no reason to back off that now considering he has good leaders arounds him, finally has a dedicated work ethic, is always going to be protected in our lineup and is still very young when you consider “the prime” on someones career is suppose to be from 27/28-32/33.
The only thing I would be concerned about is how he ages, once his bat speed slows down if he still isn’t walking then he will probably fade pretty quickly after that without making as much contact and a decrease in power, however I wouldn’t expect anything like that until he is 33-36.
Cano’s work ethic makes further improvement possible, and I agree about the 30 HR season being a likelihood. It’s funny to recall how many Yankee fans wanted to trade him up until very recently.
Yeah he has really seemed to pickup on Alex’s work ethic over the past two seasons and it his has really made a huge difference for him, I’ve said it all long the only thing that can hold Robbie back, is Robbie himself and over the last 2 years he has only helped himself.
If you believe Joel Sherman (who saw Cano at his home this offseason) he has been working out all winter long and Sherman put his name up as an MVP candidate which I don’t disagree with, he probably should’ve been more of a contender last year considering how much he meant with Jeter, Tex, and Arod all struggling (compared to themselves of course).
I remember the original trade Robbie bandwagon which I wasn’t on and then for some reason it rolled back around after he had his one and only poor season and I still didn’t get it, just watching him swing and play D you can see that he has the ability to be the best player in baseball and personally I think he IS flat out the most talented everyday player in the league. He’s not to the point where he is the best player in baseball but his talent has been tapped all the way and that’s the scary part.
If the Mariners said tomorrow they would trade us Felix but only if Cano was in the deal I would turn it down, now a 1-1 swap you probably have to take since Felix allows CC to have less leverage on an opt out and gives us the best 1-2 punch in baseball for at least this year. However the point remains the same Cano in a package for almost anyone isn’t worth it IMO because of the value he brings playing up the middle (best 2nd baseman in baseball) and the other pieces you’d be giving up.
[...] Gardner had an absolutely fantastic season and I’m not 100% sure he can repeat it but he’s earned the right to try and repeat it from the leadoff spot in the lineup in 2011. [...]