In the latest offseason list, Kevin Goldstein of the excellent Baseball Prospectus has unveiled his top 20 Yankee prospects (only Subscribers can see the full content, alas, but anyone can see the list and a scouting report on Jesus Montero). I’m going to take a quick look at the list and share my thoughts on it, to see if he differs significantly from the developing consensus on the Yankee system. He grades the top 11 prospects, and then adds in 9 more to watch. It’s worthy of note that KG tends to be a bit of a “velocity whore”, and is not afraid to rank a prospect with little experience very highly if he gets a good vibe from them.
- Jesus Montero (5 star)
- Manny Banuelos (5 star)
- Gary Sanchez (5 star)
- Dellin Betances (5 star)
- Eduardo Nunez (3 star)
- Austin Romine (3 star)
- Andrew Brackman (3 star)
- Ivan Nova (3 star)
- Hector Noesi (3 star)
- Brett Marshall (3 star)
- Adam Warren (3 star)
- Graham Stoneburner
- Brandon Laird
- Slade Heathcott
- Cito Culver
- David Phelps
- Melky Mesa
- DJ Mitchell
- Colin Curtis
- Angelo Gumbs
At first glance, nothing jumps out at me as outrageous on this list. The top 4 pretty much match the consensus (though some would have Betances ahead of Sanchez). His analysis of these guys in the scouting reports is nothing new, but he continues to emphasize his belief that Montero has no shot to be a catcher long-term. He also expresses concerns about Gary Sanchez’s present catching abilities, but he expects that Gary will eventually be capable. Ranking Sanchez as a 5-star guy is aggressive, but in line with how he has been ranked so far this offseason.
Eduardo Nunez at #5 is the main surprise early on, and although I disagree, I understand KG’s logic. I think Nunez gets a bad rap in the Yankee blogosphere, and I believe that his consistently higher-than-expected rankings this season (in publications such as Baseball America) is reflective of positive scouting reports that we in the blogosphere aren’t necessarily exposed to. A consensus has developed among certain blogs that Nunez is terrible, but I think given the low standards of offense among shortstops who can play the position (and by most accounts, Nunez’s defense is pretty solid) he’s a decent prospect with a chance to be a major league starter (maybe not in New York, but still). KG seems pretty high on Nunez’s defense and speed, and thinks that he will hit enough to be a useful player.
David Phelps at 15 is perhaps a bit lower than I often see him ranked (given that he is pretty close to big league ready), but KG points to his fairly pedestrian repertoire being masked by his excellent command.
Colin Curtis has no place on this list in my opinion, and I would have greatly preferred to see a guy like Mason Williams (whom I am surprised to see behind Angelo Gumbs) who has the tools and upside to become an impact player, while Curtis doesn’t seem to be a future starter, and has pretty much reached his ceiling. KG often ranks big-bonus kids like Williams pretty highly, and I am curious why he didn’t make the list. Either he’s not high on Williams, or it speaks highly of the system’s depth.
Overall, KG’s impression of the Yankee system is pretty much in line with what other prospect raters have determined. It’s a strong system with some great top-end talent (evidenced by the 4 5-star rankings), most of which is in the upper minors (except for Gary Sanchez). There is strong pitching at every level of the minors, with a combination of guys with high ceilings (Betances, Brackman, Marshall) and guys who are good bets to be major leaguers (Banuelos, Noesi, Warren, etc.). There is excellent depth, with first-round picks from the last 2 years not even cracking the top 10. Overall, the state of the Yankee minor leagues is strong, and hopefully this depth and top-end talent will come in handy in 2011.
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21 Responses to Analyzing another Yankee top prospect list
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TIQ IQ
Any list without David Adams but including Melky Mesa has to raise eyebrows.
Oh wow, I completely missed the fact that Adams wasn’t on there. Great call, he should definitely be there.
How are you supposed to rank Adams after he missed almost the entire season at AA? You have to play to get ranked.
Man, remember when everybody was talking about Jose Ramirez at the beginning of last year? I’m shocked that he isn’t ranked higher by everybody. I mean a 8.22 K/9 out of a 19/20 year old is absolutely awesome. He faded down the stretch but I fully expect him to wow some people this year
Yeah, Ramirez should be on there as well, even with his tough second half.
I had to do a double take when I saw Nunez at 5, especially over guys like Romine, Brackman, Noesi, and even Phelps.
I’m not one to bag on Nunez for being awful, but I also don’t see him as eventually blossoming into an All Star. He can be a serviceable SS in the Majors, but IMO nothing more and nothing less.
These other guys have higher ceilings than Nunez to go along with their similar (or in some cases better) success in the Minors. Shouldn’t that factor into a ranking system too? Or does Nunez get more love because he’s actually been to The Show?
Brackman is too low
“David Phelps at 15 is perhaps a bit lower than I often see him ranked (given that he is pretty close to big league ready), but KG points to his fairly pedestrian repertoire being masked by his excellent command.”
Hmmm … I’m sure we can name several very successful former ML pitchers that had a “pedestrian repertoire” and excellent control
He said command, not control. Command is your stuff, your movement. Control is where you put it.
For example, a curveball with good bite thrown letter high will get crushed. That’s poor control.
A curveball with no bite that’s thrown belt high will get crushed. That’s poor command.
Phelps has excellent command of his stuff, meaning his ball moves consistently where he intends it to. That doesn’t mean he has great stuff (which he doesn’t) just that he’s very consistent with what he has.
TJ surgery aside, what round does Brett Marshall go in this year’s draft if he elected to go to school?
I don’t know, but I’ve seen lists with Gerritt Cole going as high as 3rd this year. *burns*
What are you smoking? Banuelos does not have a high ceiling? Most say he has the highest ceiling, being a lefty with mid 90s velocity and two other plus or bordering on plus pitchers. Agree, of course, with overall assessment, but that is a strange thing to assert.
I do think that Banuelos’ ceiling is pretty high, but I think the reason he’s such a valuable prospect is he has a rare combination of ceiling and polish. I still think Betances has a higher ceiling, and possibly Brackman as well.
Ok. Fair enough. But you realize that yours is a minority opinion– see Klaw and KG, among others.
I actually agree with him that Betances has a higher ceiling but Banuelos has the much higher floor giving him his high ranking, I don’t see Brackman as a guy with a higher ceiling as I look at him in the AJ Burnett sum isn’t the total of the parts kind of thing where he will always pitch a notch below his stuff.
I see Banuelos as having a pretty decent ceiling something in the range of a Johan Santana light but Betances has a huge 6’7 body, with a devestating fastball and the feel to throw a curve and a changed called plus, he has so much potential, and always has, it’s scary.
Banuelos is special on age alone. Not many 20 year olds do what he did at AA last year. He adds a solid breaking ball (curve/slider) to go with his fastball/change and he’ll be a flat-out stud.
Here’s the next five on my list.
21. David Adams
22. Mason Williams
23. Corban Joseph
24. J.R. Murphy
25. Ramon Flores
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=12988#78144
In case any of you were wondering, Kevin posted the next 5 in the comment section of the article.
Again, a 20 year old with a great fastball/change combo who dominated A ball for a half season with no previous injury history doesn’t make the top 25? Jose Ramirez needs some respect!
Ramirez’ absence is by far the oddest thing about this list.
I’ve not read anyone saying that they have questions Gary won’t stick at catcher, in fact I’ve read just the opposite, has anyone else heard that he is raw enough to possibly need to move off?
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