During last week’s live chat, friend-of-the-site Jeff G. inquired as to who I expected to overachieve and underachieve in 2011. At the time, I hastily replied that the Athletics and Brewers could qualify as overachieving candidates. As for the underachievers, I went with the Orioles; despite some their free agent spending (i.e. – Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy), I still envision them ending up in fifth place and hovering around 90 losses, thanks in large part to a rotation littered with question marks not named Brian Matusz. After mulling it over a bit further, I’ve decided to revise some of my picks and elaborate on my reasoning. So in the spirit of irresponsible-preseason conjecturing, here’s the first installment covering my predictions of the American League.
Overachievers | Buy some Tigers stock; it’s certainly cheap enough! I know preseason is a time for renewed optimism, but I’m already prepared to pencil the Indians and Royals into the abysmally-hopeless-loser bracket in 2011. In a division where only three teams will realistically compete for supremacy, a few key improvements can go a long way which is obviously excellent news for Dave Dombrowski’s crew. By adding veteran-slugging “catcher,” Victor Martinez (let’s be honest, he’s really more of a 1B/DH at this point), into a lineup featuring Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera (assuming he can keep out of trouble on the field), the offense becomes that much deeper.
Perhaps the most compelling reason for believing in Detroit, though, rests in the young arms of their rotation. Led by freak-of-nature Justin Verlander, the rotation will rely on solid production from touted rookies, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. Of course should either of them discover hard times while Phil Coke and Brad Penny fill out the back end of rotation — who are we kidding with Coke and Penny? — success may be merely a mirage at best. Long story short, I don’t expect them to surpass the Twins as the pride of the AL Central, but I’m expecting them to surpass their Chicago-based rivals and become an actual contender.
Underachievers | It’s a sad day for those boys in Arlington; and just for the record, this choice has nothing to do with Chuck Greenberg’s comments. But let’s be honest, reaching the World Series twice in two consecutive years is a challenge. The rotation took a large step backward the second Cliff Lee chose the Phillies. While C.J. Wilson (4.6 bWAR in 2010) and Colby Lewis (3.6 bWAR in 2010) are very respectable in their own right, my confidence wanes drastically in Brandon Webb’s (who knows if he’ll even be able to pitch let alone pitch well!), Tommy Hunter’s, and Derek Holland’s ability to provide meaningful production.
While I’m not overly concerned with Guerrero’s and Young’s (potential) departure in terms of overall offensive contribution, the team will absolutely feel the sobering effects of any regression or extended injury on Josh Hamilton’s behalf. Signing Adrian Beltre was a nice touch, although I’m not convinced the Rangers will benefit from the 2010 vintage (.321/.365/.553, .919 OPS) that the Red Sox enjoyed. Rather, I expect to see Beltre’s performance more closely mirror that of his time with the Mariners (.266/.317/.442, .759 OPS). The good news: postseason contention is at the very least plausible, if not probable.
Dark horse | I’m going with the Athletics here. Their rotation, comprised of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Brandon McCarthy should remain relatively reliable. One interesting point to consider though is Cahill’s 2010 ERA (2.97) was considerably lower than his FIP (4.31). For what it’s worth, CAIRO projects substantial regression on his part in 2011 (4.13 ERA, 4.68 FIP). CAIRO is also fairly bearish about some of his rate stats (5.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9) which aren’t exactly what one wants to hear about the team’s “ace.” While the walks per nine are undesirable, at least the lousy strike out rate is partially pacified by the 51.8% ground ball ratio. With that being said, I like the addition of Hideki Matsui to the lineup as he’ll provide the offense with some much needed power assuming his legs don’t fall off.
Feel free to share your own picks and stay tuned for Part II (NL picks).
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12 Responses to 2011 Predictions (Overachievers, Underachievers, Dark horses) — Part I
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TIQ IQ
Great stuff, Matt. I was poring over the A’s projected rotation last night in preparation for my preview post on them, and it sounds like Josh Outman will be competing with McCarthy for the fifth rotation slot. Rich Harden was supposed to be in the mix, but he apparently got injured on the first day of spring training! You can’t make this stuff up.
Thanks, Lar. That tidbit about Harden is pretty priceless.
Good analysis, and I don’t disagree with the picks but . . . aren’t you missing the obvious choice for underachiever?
What team has aging stars playing key roles combined with a suspect rotation THE YANKEES! I know they will make moves in season but they do play in the most competitive division with little margin for error. An injury here and some continued decline there and we could see a 2011 Playoffs without pinstripes.
Duly noted, SoxGuy. :P
The same could be said about the Sox! Beckett, Dice-K, Lackey? That inspires confidence… and what about Pedrioa, Drew, Youk, Ellsbury, Salty…I’d say the chance for injury there is pretty good.
Is the argument really that Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K are comparable to Burnett, Garcia and Nova? I’d like to see some statistical analysis of each trio supporting that. I doubt you’ll find the results you think you’ll find.
Injuries are a valid point, and I can’t deny that several key Sox contributors are coming off injury-riddled 2010 campaigns. Here’s the difference. Injuries can happen in any year to any player and can’t be reasonably predicted. Some years – like 2011 for the Sox – they can decimate a season. Other years you get lucky – like the 2001 Mariners – and everyone stays healthy. My point regarding the Yankees is that Rivera, Posada, ARod and Jeter are OLD. Like dirt. Even if they make it through the season without Injuries a continued regression and degradation of skill is to be EXPECTED. The Sox offense is built around guys in their prime years (28-32) – Youk, Pedroia, Crawford, AGon. The Yanks offense is built around guys born when Nixon was still in office. That’s a problem.
The only difference between Beckett and Burnett is career run support!
I’m not picking for the Texas Rangers to make it back to the World Series based on the odds being tremendously against them. In baseball these days, it’s very rare to see a team repeat as pennant winners. The Phillies did it recently, and almost three-peating as NL champs is a great feat in itself.
Glad to see you made it, Jeff! I figured you’d appreciate this post.
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