"Let's flip a coin. Heads they win, tails we lose"
EJs piece from yesterday presents an opportunity for me to delve into what I think is a much misunderstood topic, and that’s how most MLB managers use their relievers and bullpen. Let’s start out by saying we all understand that much of what goes on in the bullpen is overrated. For those who need a refresher course, check out this review of a Bill James’ piece on THT. As the old saw goes, most relievers are failed starters. The reason some of them failed as starters is they couldn’t get hitters from both sides of the plate out. In other cases, they didn’t have a 3rd (or sometimes 2nd) pitch of MLB quality, so they can only go once through a lineup, if that. Still others are situational pitchers, where a guy throws a sinker/slider combo and can get you a ground ball when needed. So you begin from the premise that you’re generally dealing with a bunch of pitchers with enormous platoon splits and/or limited weapons to work with. With that out of the way, here were EJs rules for using Soriano:
- In a close game, Soriano comes into innings 5-7 in any situation with the starter out (or gassed) with less than 2 outs, a runner on second or third base and a right-hander coming up to the plate.
- If no situation presents itself by the 8th inning, Soriano pitches the 8th inning.
- Against top lefty hitters with runners on base in a close game, Feliciano or Logan relieve Soriano. He stays with no runners on base and against most lefty hitters.
Most of his rules are solid, but using your best relief option in the 5th and 6th inning is a bit extreme. First, you have to consider where you are in the other team’s batting order, which EJ doesn’t address. It may be a high leverage situation, but if you’re facing the opposition’s #8 and 9 hitters then you should be able to trust one of your setup men to get the job done, or they shouldn’t be on the roster. Leverage looks at the situation, but not the batters due to come up. A manager has to consider that as well. Facing Adrian Gonzalez with men on base in a one run game is a more worrisome to me than facing Jed Lowrie. Lowrie can’t hurt me the way A-Gon can. I’m not using Soriano for Lowrie, but might for Gonzalez (though Soriano’s platoon splits are an issue there).
But the biggest problem I have with this is using your best reliever so early. If you spend your best option in the 5th and pull him for a Lefty in the 6th (as he suggests) then what do you do when one of your lesser relievers gets into trouble in the 7th? You’re too far away from Mo, and have now managed yourself into a menu of bad options. Everyone from fans to broadcasters to beat writers will be killing the manager for panicking in the 5th, and since they’re dealing in the facts of what transpired and you’re arguing game theory, it’s a losing argument. Yes, even if Soriano bailed you out of a jam.
I’m all for the ‘fireman’ role, but freely admit there is a fundamental flaw to it. You’re using your best weapon too early, so if you get into trouble in the interim between him and your closer, you’re screwed. ‘Firemen’ make more sense in the NL, where you have weak bottoms of the order to deal with and can call upon a lesser pitcher to bridge the gap between the fireman and closer. In the age of deep lineups and the AL East it’s much harder to pull off. People forget that bullpens have pecking orders for good reason. The idea is to husband your limited resources in the bullpen, and always have a better option backing up the pitcher who’s on the mound should he get into trouble. If you reach the 9th with a lead, you don’t mess around and bring in your best to put the hammer down. That’s solid reasoning. If a manager uses his bullpen that way and it doesn’t work, that doesn’t mean the thought process was bad, just the result. Nothing works all the time.
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12 Responses to Why managers use bullpens the way they do
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TIQ IQ
I don’t understand the bolded text at all. Why are you saving your best pitchers for a hypothetical when the game is on the line now? And the yanks have a very deep bullpen, such that they can bridge the gap to Mo from Sori.
Sounds good in theory, breaks down in practice. You used Soriano in the 6th, replaced him with Feliciano in the 7th for two lefty batters. Pedro gets 1 of his two batters, now Joba comes in to face a righty with a man on 1st and 1 out in the 7th. Joba has nothing. He gets smacked around for the first 2 batters. It’s now a 1 run game, runners in scoring position and still 1 out.
Where do you go? D-Rob is good, but walks too many batters to trust in that tight of a spot. You’ll lose the game, in large part to the manager panicking in the 6th. I’m all for using Soriano as a fireman in the 7th and 8th, because the gap between him and Mo is small. But using him too early is a recipe for disaster.
They used Robertson like that all year, as the fireman, and he thrived. I wouldn’t use Sori in the fifth, but would at any time after that.
In 109 ABs last year with the bases empty Robertson had a line of .294/.394/.469 against, conversely with runners in scoring position in 78 ABs he had a line against of .250/.329/.319, for a bigger sample size with runners simply on base last year in 120 ABs Robertson was even better .215/.319/.275 so it seems that he did indeed thrive as a fireman last season even more so than when he came in with clean bags.
The only thing I have a problem with in using closers or guys as such in early high leverage situations is that it can only be done in a bullpen as stacked as ours, the Red Sox, the A’s or maybe the Padres because most teams simply don’t have a reliever good enough to end a game in the 9th if they pitch their closer in the 7-8 so they have to choice but to only use those bullets with a lead in the 9th.
I would expect those numbers to be good, because they reflect how he’s being used. Bases empty are most likely clean innings, whereas coming in with men on base is a match up situation. What that tells me is Girardi is very smart with how he uses Robertson. But that doesn’t necessarily translate into the situations were discussing here.
I thought the point you were making was that his somewhat shaky control would make him apt to walk guys with guys already on and when he was used he didn’t, the numbers are what they are, sure he may or may not have been given some favorable match ups but he did come through in those situations, to judge him on an unknown like what would he do in those same situations with someone else at bat doesn’t really seems fair.
Besides with Soriano, Feliciano, Logan and Joba wouldn’t everyone be getting favorable matchups outside of Soriano and Mo who face the best? That is the point I believe if I understand correctly, to use Soriano and Mariano against the best in the highest leverage situations leaving more favorable matchups for the rest of the pen.
1-You want to always have a better option at hand, in case of emergency. If you use your best option first, you leave yourself with a series of lesser options for later. To use a military analogy you send in the elite guard last, not first.
2-You assume the game is on the line in the 5th or 6th. But its too early in the game, so we really don’t know that. There’s 3-4 more innings to play. You could score more or your opponent could rally again in the 7th or 8th. The assumption the game is on the line is something that can only be viewed in hindsight, and managers don’t have that luxury. You always manage to prevent runs, but going to your best setup man in the 5th or 6th smells of panic to me.
3-If you trust Robertson in the 7th-8th, then why don’t you trust him in the 5th or 6th? I like him when he’s backed up by someone better, as the last line of defense not so much.
3 is what I keep coming back to when running the fireman idea over in my head, Robertson seems to be the type of guy who does his best work in the middle of a close game when he can factor in to the games outcome but not have the world on his shoulders. I don’t like the idea of him as a closer because 1 he walks to many guys and 2 I think he performs better when he pitches further away from the end of the game (obviously this is just observation I haven’t tried to prove it with numbers) so why take that away from him especially when a guy like Soriano has proven he likes to have the game on his shoulder time and time again.
So, here’s what I think Steve was trying to say, and I mostly agree with him:
There are two actually special things about a closer: he finishes games, and he pitches complete innings. If the Yankee starter leaves in the 6th inning, the Yankees are going to use most of their good relievers to get to the end of the game. But if Joba Chamberlain walks two guys, then David Robertson is there to take the ball from Joba and prevent those runs from scoring. But if it takes all of Joba, Rafael, Feliciano, and Logan to get to the 9th inning and Mariano Rivera, then there’s no one for Mariano to hand the ball to if he screws up. In fact, the later the inning, chances are there are fewer guys available to hand the ball to, so its better to have your better guys go later.
Its not a bad point – but I think the Yankee bullpen is good enough without Soriano to not worry about it. We’ve got enough pretty good relievers (Hell, imagine if Aceves gets back into form) to cover a lot of innings and a lot of situations. I just think that Soriano is the best of those guys, and his use would be optimized cleaning up for everyone.
If Mo screws up, the game is over. Literally on the road, and for all intents and purposes at home. There’s something very deflating about your closer blowing a lead.
I would say if there is 1 thing I never worry about when it comes to the Yankees it would have to be “who is Mariano going to hand the ball off too” because shortly after he does that the remote needs to be fetched before my baseball package blacks out as the game is over.
Well, Steve, call me a heretic, or a dumb fan. Bill James uses the old saw crudely. He requires 3x crucial to consider a closer worth a position player (loose, unexplained, but probably a ratio of innings basis), then denies it’s the case.
I like the fireman idea for Soriano, depending on his ability to live with the flexibility. One of the main reasons that Joe doesn’t vary Mo’s usage much is that he needs to have a predictable entry so that he can prepare. Health and effectiveness requires it.
Whether the 5th, 6th or 7th is fair territory would seem to me to depend on the current reliability and readiness of the rest of the corps. But, hey, you say it’s way overrated worrying about the bullpen. Hell, relievers are just failed starters; they’re a dime a dozen, hunh?