With the new CBA on its way, we’re again hearing rumblings of an international draft. I don’t know how serious these rumblings are, but I do have quite a few comments on them.
I think that in the abstract, baseball should incorporate international players into its drafting process. The purpose of the draft is to a) provide some structure to the signing and development process for young players and teams and b) to allocate the best talent to the worst teams. The current system does neither of those. In fact, the current system leads itself to pretty much the opposite of both goals – young players keep their information deliberately opaque while teams keep their interest in young players even more opaque and uncertain and the richest teams usually get the best talent. Its a bad system.
Before we get into logistics, there is an important discussion that has to happen. As far as I can tell, there are only two ways to do an international draft. First, MLB could simply incorporate international players into its normal drafting process. Any players who w ill turn 18 this year, or is draft eligible in college, can be drafted. This is how the NHL does its international draft. Second, MLB could create a new draft for international signings, where 16 year-olds become eligible that year, and the normal drafting process happens in mirror to the normal amateur one. It would probably be a shorter draft. Any players not drafted would be eligible to signed as international free agents.
Before I comment on either system, I want to comment on logistics. Many people believe, I think erroneously, that an international draft would be a logistical nightmare. For example, a lot of people think that age verification would be impossible. That’s not really true. We’ve had some age verification issues in the past, but MLB has worked with certain Latin American countries to make this much less of an issue. MLB can further solve much of the problems with a zero tolerance policy for age fraud, where players convicted face a heavy fine, suspension, or banishment from pro ball. Players would have to provide proof of age to register for the draft. Many thousands of baseball players would register each year, but this isn’t much different from the normal amateur draft, except that it spans many continents and would probably be a little costlier for teams.
Want to know where the nightmare comes in? It comes in when you start talking about the latter scenario discussed above: an international-only draft for 16 year-olds. Draft picks negotiate with teams based upon the amount of leverage they have. Top prospects line up top college commitments from high school because they have the leverage to threaten to go to that college. You know who will have a ton of leverage? A top-flight Latin American 16-year old kid. He could enter and re-enter the draft several times, and negotiate his signing bonus upwards. While I’m sure he will feel economic pressure to sign if he comes from an impoverished country, I think you could see the first 30 or so picks in the draft choose not to sign at a pretty high rate.
For that reason, I think that any international draft would have to be like a hockey draft: everyone enters at the same age. Latin American kids would have the option of not signing and reentering the draft a few years later just like high school players. The problem here is actually the opposite: Latin American players have little leverage at all. Most won’t have college commitments lined up (though colleges would be smart to get into that game), so they’ll have to find independent teams willing to play them. In Japan, Korea, Taiwan and elsewhere, this isn’t a problem. The NHL, for example, benefits from vibrant professional or de facto professional leagues in Sweden, Russia, Canadian Juniors, and other places for their draft. In Latin America, few such teams exist. MLB would be wise to lead the effort in supporting them if they went this route.
The problem lies in unequal signing bonus economics of Latin American free agents. Some Latin American players command six-figure or higher bonuses for their signing. But the other 95% of IFAs sign for little more than pennies and promises of playing baseball professionally. The system is broken for the big money guys, and a draft fixes that, but leaves behind the small money guys. The international-only draft option works for the cheap guys quite well, but is a huge mess for the big money free agents.
Here is my solution: a hybrid draft. MLB holds a 16 year-old international draft with a 50+ rounds. Players selected in these rounds are subject to a very hard slotting system, so they must sign a particular contract based upon their draft position. If they do not sign, they can reenter the draft the next year, but cannot sign with another team until they are much older. However, players have the option of exempting themselves from the draft (or alternatively, just declining to sign a contract for two years) and making themselves eligible for the traditional MLB amateur draft. If they do, they are subject to the same negotiating rules of American and Canadian amateur players, with some kind of restriction from reentering the draft immediately to mimic how we force college players to wait.
This accomplishes a lot of things. It brings transparency and predictability to the drafting process. It allows MLB teams to add huge numbers of Latin American players and train them at at a young age. It also allocates the top-level talent, who will either sign early in the hard-slotted international draft or wait for a big payday in the regular draft.
It should be noted that neither of these systems really benefits the Yankees. We leverage our money pretty well out there. Jesus Montero and Gary Sanchez would not be Yankees under these system.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
11 Responses to An International Draft?
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
I don’t there is an idea to which I am more opposed than an International Draft. One reason baseball is enjoying such quality play is because of the constant stream of talent from foreign countries, and my fear is that a international draft would only serve to stem that tide (just as it did when Puerto Rican players were added to the Rule IV structure).
I’ve posted about this topic in the past (here, here and here), and see no benefit to making an international draft. There is no reason to think it will more evenly distribute talent (that is already happening) or control costs (in fact, teams look at the international market as a refuge from expense of Rule IV draft). Ultimately, however, it seems incredibly unfair to allow a major league baseball team to exert leverage over foreign born players, many of whom see baseball as a way to escape poverty. It’s unfair to do that to American, Canadian and PR kids, but at least they aren’t confronted with being denied entry to the United States if they refuse to accept the terms of the club.
On Puerto Rico – the problem is really that only Puerto Rico was included in the draft. Players in Puerto Rico play in conditions much closer to the DR than in Florida (no showcases, fewer college-bound players, many fewer organized leagues), but are subject to the same rules. That case is basically made here:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070912&content_id=2204904&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb\
Its really a great thing that the interests of baseball teams in training players aligns with the laudable goal of poverty reduction, but that doesn’t mean that it should be a factor when making decisions about the game. IFA system or not, baseball will bring quite a bit of money to the DR and other places, and will enrich the lives of people there. I think that my hybrid system brings quite a bit of money into the area.
In regards to both cost and competitive balance – just look at the last few off seasons. IFA prices for the top players are skyrocketing. A lot of top players are being identified at young ages. That’s probably both an inefficiency (wait 2 years, get better information) and a competitive balance issue (Teams willing to pay the price get Jesus Montero, others do not. If it makes economic sense, the rich teams will eventually rule this like they do the free agent market).
The linked article makes a great case why an international draft would be a move in the wrong direction.
IFA prices may be rising, but they are still much lower than Rule IV prices. Unlike in a draft, teams do have the chance to use their expertise to identify international talent, but that will be eliminated under a draft system. Just like big market teams have used money to dominate the Rule IV draft, they’d likely do the same in an international draft. In other words, there is no reason to suggest that it would foster talent balance (which assumes that there is an imbalance now).
Finally, baseball DOES have a responsibility to be fair in how it treats these players and DOES have a responsibility to ensure that talent remains plentiful. The negative ramifications of an international draft are so potentially harmful, that if enacted, we could be lamenting the disappearance of the Latino player in 30 years.
First, I think you are making a huge leap to forecast declines in Latin American players. Ultimately, teams will draft talent, and there’s nothing that a well-designed draft (like the one mentioned) will do to prevent that. My two-tiered idea gets around the problem that you mentioned, where it became too expensive to develop Puerto Rican players in the draft. I also don’t think you can blame the draft on the decline of African American players at all, but that’s a whole different ballpark.
Prices in the draft are higher because players there offer more certainty. As a group, they aren’t necessarily more talented, but 16 year olds are tough to read. Structure adds certainty, and theoretically prices will equal out. As they should.
I like your ideas to remove the draft entirely for all players (it would be a real interesting idea coupled with a salary cap). But that’s not a world that’s being discussed.
EJ, one argument I’ve heard against an International Draft is it may stop teams from setting up baseball camps and facilities in Latin America due to their being no guarantee they can sign the stars they help develop. I can understand this concept, because why would the Yankees invest a lot of money to train a young player, just to have a team like KC draft him and reap the benefits of their hard work. If this were the case, fewer teams would then stop settting up these training facilities and the game wouldn’t grow at the current rate. Latin American kids may even turn away from baseball in order to find another form of entertainment or occupation. How do you feel about that? (Provided what I said makes sense).
That’s exactly one of the arguments I referenced in the links that didn’t come through from above:
http://t.co/S4doZKB
http://t.co/0CDT7mb
http://t.co/VLUOXVc
You are 100% correct that team-run development camps will not exist with an international draft. However, I don’t think that MLB would be smart to eliminate them entirely. Right now, I see the academies as a major sign of inefficiency. MLB teams have to make a tremendous investment in order to bring in players. Most teams actually share facilities with other organizations – the Yankees are rare in that they have their own academy – and the question is still open as to whether or not they’re expanding the pool of good prospects.
I think that MLB should essentially nationalize these academies. The league should share their cost and rewards among all 30 teams. This is pretty much what I advocate for when I use words like ‘structure’ and ‘leagues’.
What the system really needs is structure and leagues. It needs the equivalent of high school showcases, but for LA prospects. Every couple of years, we hear about someone trying to establish a real league in the DR, but it doesn’t really work out. I think that a draft would bring in enough predictability and structure – plus league-wide MLB dollars – to actually allow for the successful creation of these leagues.
besides team owners looking to lower cost, who does this solution help exactly?
Teams that have high draft picks.
so, more incentive to be bad. yay?
Why would you propose an international draft system that screws the Yankees in every orifice?