As I am sure most of you have heard, the Nationals handed outfielder Jayson Werth a monumental 7-year, 126 million dollar deal yesterday. Werth is an excellent all-around player, but he is also 32, has had injury issues, and does not have an extensive track record as an elite player. The deal sent ripples throughout the baseball community, and is likely to impact the free agent market significantly. For example, take this tweet from Jon Heyman, sent last night:
Hearing #rangers not planning to go 6 yrs on lee. Hopeful camarederie/proximity pay off. Do expect at least the #yankees to go 6.
Before the offseason began, I thought a 5 year deal would almost certainly be enough to get Lee. However, with the market now clearly above what it has been in recent seasons, Lee is probably going to get his 6th year, at an average annual value of 22-25 million dollars. There is no way that he will look at a player just as old as him receiving a 7 year deal from the Nationals and accept a 5 year offer from the Yankees and Rangers.
The market for Carl Crawford is where the Werth contract will be felt most, as Carl can now ask for 8 years and 144-160 million dollars with a straight face. I can see the Angels trying to make a big splash after their terrible 2010, and Boston has been said to have strong interest in Crawford as well. If I were the Red Sox, I would empty out the farm system for Justin Upton rather than give Crawford the sort of money that could cripple a team moving forward. An offer of Daniel Bard, Ryan Kalish, Jose Iglesias, Anthony Ranaudo, and Drake Britton may get a deal done (an alternative would be to include Jacoby Ellsbury and Felix Doubrount while removing Bard and Kalish). While this would mean that the Sox would have trade their top 6 prospects and two MLB ready talents this offseason, eschewing Crawford, Victor Martinez, and Adrian Beltre will leave them with 5 early picks in a stacked draft. Furthermore, they can expand the budget to go over slot later in the draft using the money that they will save by avoiding Crawford. Considering their strong draft in 2010 and their penchant for drafting well, they can rebuild the system relatively quickly. Whatever they choose to do, their decision-making process has likely been altered by the Jayson Werth contract and its ramifications on the free agent market.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
3 Responses to Werth Signing Changes The Market
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
I thought Ranaudo or any member of the 2010 draft class had to be in the organization a full year before a trade including one of them could be effectuated?
I meant to add the explanation for that, but neglected to. They can have him listed as a PTBNL, and he can then be sent over after the year. If he gets hurt, they can have a prearranged alternative.
I have to say Mo that I never really thought 5 years would get it done because I’ve felt this whole time that the Rangers don’t mind spending 20+ a year on him and when it comes down to 5/125 or 5/115 is it really that big a difference to make him uproot his family again?
I’ve always held out hope we can get it done on a 6th year option but if not I’m not really sure if I want Lee anymore, it probably doesn’t matter because he will be a Yankee as bad as they want him after the Werth deal I just hope the Yankees don’t go stupid and give him 7.
There is a pretty big difference in a 39 year old Werth making 18 million and a 39 year old Lee making 23 million and it’s possible Werth could be producing at a JD Drew like level at that point while Lee is being kicked around like a rag doll every 5 days…. Unfortunately Hernandez, Johnson, Jimenez, Anderson and Kershaw are all off limits and I wouldn’t trade for Grienke if we got prospects for him…. Zack had 1 career year surpassing every bench mark he every established and will never be that good again and in New York he might fall apart…. he has even stated in interviews that while he is mostly over his anxiety he thinks New York might be “too much” for him.