To say Brett Gardner had a surprising 2010 would be an understatement. Behind a fantastic walk rate of 13.9%, Gardner ended up with a .383 OBP and a .358 wOBA. All of that led to a 123 wRC+. Combine that with a 21.9 UZR, and you get a fantastic 5.4 fWAR.
There are people that doubt Gardner can do that again. I’m going to cautiously agree. To expect a guy with as little a track record as Gardner to put up a 5.4 fWAR season again is expecting a lot. But, then again, a .358 wOBA is definitely do-able for Gardner, especially if he can keep walking like Nick Johnson. What do Bill James and CAIRO say for Brett?
James projects a .349 wOBA and CAIRO projects a .329 wOBA. To save time, let’s take the rough average of those two for our projection. That comes out to .339 for the average. We’ll use that going forward, using the same process as in my A-Rod post.
I’ll run this three ways: with Gardner playing CF full time, with Gardner playing LF full time, and with a hybrid approach. For they hybrid approach, I’ll use the same positional adjustment as this year: -4.4. We’ll also assume +10 defense for LF, +7 for CF, and +8.5 for the hybrid (average of the two). I realize those are aggressive numbers, but I’m comfortable going that high for Gardner. Assume 10 runs per win.
CF: 3.56 fWAR
LF: 2.86 fWAR
LF/CF: 3.02 fWAR
Those numbers look pretty okay to me. The 2.86 fWAR might look crappy compared to last year’s, but let’s remember that 2010 was likely Gardner’s absolute ceiling and that considering how little he’s paid, he’ll likely still be a valuable asset at 2.86 WAR.
We’ve also got to remember that the 3.02 fWAR scenario is most likely, especially if Gardner continues his performance against lefties while Curtis Granderson continues to struggle a bit (unless he really is #cured), and a platoon guy like Scott Hairston is signed to hit against LHP.
.339 is also a bit low on the projection, considering he just wOBA’d .358. I don’t think he’ll get as high as .358, but I don’t think he’ll go as low as .339. In projecting, though, it’s probably better to be conservative.
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10 Responses to WAR Projections: Brett Gardner
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Not sure why people seem so surprised about Gardner. His speed and walk rate make him much more valuable than people realize. It’s OK not to hit 30 HR’s every year. You get value in other ways and Gardner is the epitome of showing that value. He wore down toward the end of the season; it was his first full time season in the Pros. I won’t be surprised if he has a similar or even better year than last year. Especially if the Yankees have him lead off more often.
Nice post, Matt. One thing to keep in mind when looking at the projections is that CAIRO doesn’t factor in SB/CS, which is part of the reason why SG’s .329 seems a touch low for Gardner.
However, given that James’ seems high, as he does with everyone, I’d guess somewhere in the neighborhood of your .339 average is probably a reasonable projection for a Gardner wOBA that includes SB. You’d hope he doesn’t lose .020 points of wOBA from 2010, but given how little information we have to work with I’d rather have low expectations and be pleasantly surprised again if Gardy can be somewhere in the .350s.
keeping healthy, especially his hands and wrists, is a big key for him. He really should learn to slide feet first. It’s not that difficult and it’s a lot safer.
I think he can duplicate last year and even exceed it if he does manage to keep from getting nicked up so much.
Great base stealers usually speak against sliding feet first because you lose a second or two getting to the plate and more importantly when you slider hands first you are diving down to the bag but sliding feet first your momentum causes your feet to fly up so even if one stays down to touch the bag you leave a foot open to be tagged out. I’ve heard Rickey Henderson talk against feet first before and I trust “the greatest of all time” haha.
My fear for Brett is that he won’t be able to sustain his health for a long career thus far he has managed to play two year of any realy work and has missed time in both seasons with injuries, stealing bases is perhaps the toughest thing baseball on the body besides playing catcher because you have to constantly slam yourself into dirt on a full run, some like Rickey and Lou Brock age well but a lot of guys who rely on stolen bases for success at the major league level sustain injuries quite regularly.
You know, this WAR and wOBA stuff is interesting, though I have no idea what any of it means. If you ask me, Gardner should just learn how to bunt and he’d hit .300 easy. That’s probably worth at least 10 or 11 wins right there.
Just a minor nitpick – teams scored closer to 4 runs per game last season than 5 runs per game for the first time in awhile. This means that 9 runs per win is more appropriate than 10 runs per win. It changes the math a little.
Gardner will duplicate last year for sure. His high walk rate is a result of being able to foul off any close pitches when he has two strikes on him. As long as he keeps walking, stealing bases, and playing great D, he’s extremely valuable and w/ salary considerations one of the best.
I’m surprised that more people don’t see that it is possible that Gardner will prove to be an even better player than he was last year. I agree that there is a chance that he ends up being nothing more than a complimentary player who cannot really hit big league pitching. But given his great speed and exceptional plate discipline I think there is a real chance that he improves on what he did last year and puts up a full season like his best months last year when he was hitting over 300, walking at a great rate and generally putting pressure on the other team at the plate, on the bases and in the field. Watching him last year helped me to understand why many people in the prospect business so love plate discipline — I can see how it could be the foundation of a great career for BG despite the fact that his pure hitting skill is unimpressive and his power 3rd rate.
Here’s what I find encouraging about Gardner – his 2010 performance played out exactly as his minor league numbers would suggest. When he was in A-ball, scouts said, “he’s a hacker who won’t hit once he hits AA”, and then he hit, so scouts said, “he’s a hacker who won’t hit once he hits the majors”, then he had a great year. Now, scouts are saying, “he’s a hacker who can’t possibly be this good”, even though he has.
This is the same Brett Gardner who OBPed .414 in his first full Triple-A season. Sure, he has his faults, but he’s proven at a lot of different junctures that he can survive them. He was really, really good in 2010, but he also did it while dealing with a wrist injury and while adjusting to the majors. I definitely agree that there’s a world where Brett Gardner is better in 2011 than 2010.
My only concern for Gardner right now is his strikeout rate I mean you just can’t justify striking out 100 times in 400 at bats without swinging a big bat full of home runs, he can transition to leadoff with that kind of k rate in comparison Juan Pierre who had a much worse year by everything but steal standards only Kd 60 times in 600 at bats it just seems like right now he makes minimal contact everything is in 1 of 3 categories a walk, a K or a weak ground ball and honestly with his speed you can be an all-star with the walks and ground balls he just needs to make more contact.
A lot of times it seems like he doesn’t swing the bat until he get 2 strikes but once that happens he starts slapping away foul balls left and right for a 13-15 pitch AB, I don’t know if he’s maybe too comfortable hitting with 2 strikes and just feels he can take because he is so good at slapping balls or if he would rather try and work a walk over swinging the bat to get on base. Last year it worked out for him but he takes a lot of pitches that he could turn into hits early in the count kind of like Nick Johnson just for the sake of taking pitches, next year I would like to see him be a little more agressive, not swinging out of his shoes at every pitch agresive but every once in a while try and go up looking for a fastball to send right back up the middle instead of working every count by taking until 0-2.
Either way I expect a good year out of Brett I’ll say. .280/.370/.380 with 65 steals if he bats leadoff enough.