Move over Felix, there's a new king in baseball
On the heels of the Red Sox (or as Jon Heyman now calls them, the ‘Best team in Baseball’) signing Carl Crawford, there is a palpable sense of panic among the sports media on behalf of the Yankees. You couldn’t by tell listening to their GM making the media rounds this past week, Brian Cashman is his usual, monotone self. But the Red Sox acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford have catapulted them to being at least on par with the Yanks heading into next season, maybe slightly ahead in the eyes of some observers. Some of us in the blogosphere have our doubts, the differential between Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez is significant, but not enormous. Crawford is a clear upgrade to their putrid outfield of last year, but his best asset of speed will largely be wasted playing LF in Fenway. But you’ll get no argument from me they’ve made themselves better, and the Yanks need to keep up with the Joneses.
The running joke around the Winter Meetings is “It’s good to be Cliff Lee”, where every move that happens seems to make his bargaining position stronger and stronger. Brain Cashman has stated that none of these moves will affect his offer to Lee, and they have steadfastly (and I would add wisely) refused to add a 7th year to their offer. However, with the way salaries have inflated this year you have to leave open the possibility that bidding for Lee will get past the point of rationality. Do the Yanks walk away at that point? Can they afford to pass on Lee? What if Lee just decides money isn’t the biggest factor, and he opts to pitch in Texas, close to his native Arkansas home? Joel Sherman provides some clues in his latest column:
“I see [Lee] as important to us, I do,” Girardi said. “It’s a rotation that right now you look at it, not knowing what Andy [Pettitte] is going to do, possibly adding Ivan Nova to the rotation and having Phil Hughes, it’s a pretty young rotation with CC at the top of it. So I think he’s pretty important [to add].”
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Not exactly begging, but as Joel stated in his column that’s about as close as you’ll ever get with Girardi. But the Yankees their backs to the wall with Lee begs the question, what if they DON’T sign Lee? Could they actually go into next year with Ivan Nova as Lee’s replacement? The answer, as difficult as it is for Yankee fans to stomach, is yes. The free agent market thins out drastically after Lee, with old friend Carl Pavano as the top target once Lee comes off the board. The trade market isn’t much better, as Sherman details later in the same piece:
The price on Kansas City’s Zack Grienke is exorbitant, and the Yankees don’t believe the righty could handle New York. The Yankees have not even checked in on Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza. And frontline or near frontline types such as Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, John Danks and Francisco Liriano are not viewed as available.
It’s Cliff Lee, or a Yankee rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Ivan Nova and hopefully Andy Pettitte. If Andy retires, then the Yanks will be looking for a back of the rotation starter (Justin Duchscherer, anyone?) and maybe the Red Sox are the best team in Baseball after all.
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40 Responses to Girardi-No Plan B after Lee
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TIQ IQ
Who do you plan to trade for Jon Garland?
Yeah, I edited that part already. Signed with the Dodgers.
Sorry, I was posting before the edit but it takes a while on this phone.
For what it’s worth I don’t think Duchscherer is any better than Mitre seeing as he hasn’t started in what a year? More? Unless he made a start I was unaware of last year and either way I would still rather have Mitre, Noesi or Joba try over Duchscherer for several reasons.
Yeah, I was only being half serious with Garland or Justin. The best move may be to acquire one of the other ChiSox pitchers, if available.
The only White Sox starter that interests me is John Danks and I wouldn’t be willing to give up Montero, Brack, Betances or Banuelos for him so if we could work a deal out that way I would be fine with it but the only way to do that is trade Gardner (god knows they don’t want Swisher) and then we have no one for LF.
IMO if we don’t get Lee I would rather just bite the bullet and go into the season as is and work it out later, I want to keep the kids we have in the system and I don’t want to run out and just get any old 3 starter just to fill a hole or react to the Red Sox.
I think you have to get a #3 if Andy retires. You can’t go into next year with Nova as your #4 and Noesi as your #5.
If Andy retires, the “Joba to the rotation” crowd will be deafening, and I’m not sure a return to the rotation is avoidable at that point.
Wouldn’t it be better to go with Joba to start the year than trading any of Brack, Betances, Banuelos, Montero for some starting pitcher just to get a pitcher?
I know it isn’t ideal but why blow a possible future top player for some “just-a-player” for a year?
Depends on the cost, if vou can land an innings eater for a fringy prospect, fine. If not, you have to consider Joba.
With all this in play Steve, do you think the 6 year 140 million contract to Lee is worth it? Do you believe he is as good or better than Sabathia?
I think he’s a better bet to age well. CC’s a big boy who just had his first knee surgery. As a pitcher, he’s certainly been comparable over the past few seasons. I don’t worry about Lee’s stuff declining, he’s more about impeccable control than stuff.
The thing to me is that Lee will never be a groundball pitcher and in New Yankee stadium that is going to lead to HRs, if his stuff starts to decline even if his control is still better than others his age it could cause a rise in HRs which would be concerning. With Sabathia we are already starting to see him lean more heavily on the 2-seamer and change and getting ground ball outs which should be able to help his aging process as he loses some velocity he can counter it with movement.
I don’t like the argument that Lee should age well because he doesn’t throw hard and has great control, I have heard from former professional starting pitchers that the hardest adjustment when they got older was not losing velocity it was losing bite on their breaking pitches. People have this idea that fastball velocity goes away but the break on offspeed stays the same when in reality all your pitches erode over time, Cliff doesn’t have the most masterful curve or change anyway they are just good pitches used in an even better game plan of pounding the zone with fastballs and the occasional offspeed pitch, I fear if his curve starts to fall off and his fastball velocity is under 90 he might get real average real quick.
I personally never thought Lee was worth “Sabathia money” but he’s going to get it and if we want to compete this year we need to be the ones to give it to him I guess, but if they ask for a penny more than 6/140 I say go somewhere else.
To me Sabathia is a much better bet through 35-36 and after that it’s a crap shoot.
Jon Heyman is reporting the Yankees have given the 7th year to Lee… I could not be more pissed about that development.
When in the hell are we going to stop opperating under the buisness model of “whatever the Red Sox do we have to counter” I thought we were over this childish oneups manship, no one was going to give this guy the 6 year offer we did and now we outbid ourselves once again!!
The Yankees need Cliff Lee if they want to contend over the next few years. If the Yanks miss out on Lee, we’re looking at being stuck between a hot rock and bed of spikes for 2011 and maybe a short time beyond. Seven years sucks, but its the best option right now.
That’s the point… it’s the best deal RIGHT NOW, next year maybe Josh Johnson is available and we all for like idiots for giving this guy 7 years and all the cash in the world.
We have to got to stop taking such a narrow view on things the Yankees are like crack addicts we don’t care about the future so long as we get our one fix right now at any cost.
Hell right now we could trade for Ricky Nolasco, keep Montero, make the wild card and not pay 300 million dollars on our top 2 pitchers of our rotation.
Also the Yankees “need” a number 2 pitcher not an ace and not the 2nd best lefty in baseball, we don’t have to pay him just because he says we do, let’s go into the season with what we got and see what becomes available this all-star break and next offseason.
I get it everyone here thinks Lee is going to have a 7 WAR every year for the next 7 years but guess what, he won’t and when he doesn’t everyone is going to be pissed because he never was as good after the deal as before like is the case with 99% of these deals with older pitchers.
You’re speculating. You can’t just say “oh, Josh Johnson might be available so let’s not overpay for Cliff Lee”. Besides, Johnson becoming available just gives the Yankees even more incentive to hold on to all of their trade chips now. You’re right about the No. 2 pitcher, but what is a No. 2 pitcher in the AL East? Basically, its another ace. We don’t have a No. 2 pitcher on our roster, and there are no No. 2 pitchers on the market other than Cliff Lee.
Where is Sherman getting his info on “The Yankees don’t think Grienke can handle New York”? Haven’t heard anything to that effect coming from the Yankees directly. While Grienke is a longshot for the Yankees to acquire, I think attributing an un-validated opinion to the Yankee brass is irresosponsible at best, and contributes to the chorus of Yankee fans who believe, fool-heartedly, that Grienke would undoubtedly crumble under the New York pressure.
You do understand that he said it himself right? This isn’t fan speculation, the man told the press he doesn’t believe he can play in New York.
In an interview a year ago or so (after the Cy I believe) he said that he has pretty much gotten over his “anxiety” and that he believes he could play almost anywhere but New York because HE thinks he would have a hard time dealing with the pressure.
“Friends” have also said to the Buster Olney’s of the world that he isn’t comfortable going to the Yankees or New York in General.
I have personally heard from at least 3 different sources that the Yankees worry about Greinke being able to handle the pressure and have seen it reported in 3 seperate medias.
I don’t think its a stretch to say a guy with a social anxiety disorder would be a bad fit in NY. Grienke’s not a realistic plan B.
Doesn’t really look like we need it anymore, he got the 7 years he wants how is he going to turn it down?
Hopefully Lee can age like Pettitte who will be 39 this upcoming season but the main difference will be Andy went 1 year at a time for 10-11 million for like the last 3 years, although he was never as dominant as Lee has been for this short time period.
Plan B should Lee fail to sign here …
Greinke. I know the price is exorbitant but there remains the fact that he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball … and he’s not 30 years of age. Gotta bleed alittle to get that talent.
Trade all 3 killa Bs + Nova + Heathcott … maybe that does it.
No way I would trade all 3 B’s for Greinke!
Go look at Greinke career FIP’s and xFIP’s apart from his Cy year… Look at his K/9, K/BB, IP and any other stat you want apart from his Cy year and you will discover that his “average year” is a 3.7 FIP and he had his “career year” which he will never repeat again, at best he gives us solid mid to high 3 ERA’s at worst he puts up 4′s most year and flirts with high 3′s on good years.
People are in love with the Zack they saw in 09 but that isn’t the real Greinke he never had even 20 less K’s than IP in a season and all of a sudden he has more K’s than IP one year? He clearly pitched out of his mind in a way you only do once in a career.
Not to mention I heard the price would be more like Montero and 2 B’s plus more pro read prospects.
Yea, I’m not a fan of trading for Greinke. I’m not a fan of anything that involves trading Jesus Montero unless a Tulo, Miggy, Upton, Felix, Josh Johnson talent is coming back in return.
As a fan, I’m almost ready to say Cliff Lee or bust. If the Yankees don’t get Cliff, I’d rather keep Montero and the team we have over trading top prospects to fill the void.
Didn’t really work out that well for Vazquez… Let’s face it, Booney was a great throw in but is Arody V does any decent starting in the MLB it was a horible trade.
Ken Rosenthal Tweets that’s Lee and his agent may make this thing drag out through the weekend even with a 7 year Yankee offer on the table.
When are we going to realize this guy doesn’t really want to play for us? It’s kind of obvious he would rather stay in Texas but if he can’t the only way he is coming to New York is for 7 years 160+ million, I’m actually really getting turned off by the way these guys are handling this, your probably already being made the highest pitcher all time how much more do you need?
I think you are reading into it. It doesnt have to do with not wanting to play in NY, its waiting for someone to trump the offer. Waiting is what has gotten him his 7th year, now he wants to see if Texas or Anaheim gets desperate.
Exactly…what is the benefit to not waiting? Are teams going to start offering less? I guess they could get frustrated and cut off their noses to spite their faces, but otherwise, Lee has no incentive to make an immediate decision.
I think Lee is basically looking to get every penny possible, and I don’t blame him, especially now that he knows he probably holds the balance of power in the AL in his valuable left hand.
Defend it if you want, it’s dirty…
No ones going to start offering obviously I get that but it’s also obvious you missed the point completely.
Michael Kay said yesterday a friend of Lee’s told him that Lee is all about money and could care less about winning, any team with the most money is where he will go and it’s clear at this point that is true I just don’t see why we have to keep increasing the dollars and years just because he thinks he’s worth it.
He obviously has no desire to play here with the Yankees, he could care less what uni he has on as long as his check is in the mail and at 7 years 160+ million I’m saying enough is enough I’m out, Rangers, Angels if you want him congrats. There is no reason to bend over backwards to screw yourself in 5 years for a guy who has no connection or care for you or your team, why should we keep this bidding war going? If the Yanks drop out he automatically goes back down to 6 years because his “Yankee leverage” goes away.
We’re being used no less than we were by the Mariners and we may end up with him but I have a feeling we will pay for it with at least 2 seasons.
Why is wanting the most money dirty? If that’s what motivates him, so be it. The Yankees don’t have to offer Lee anything. They could walk away now and look elsewhere, but they have chosen to be aggressive. If they keep upping their offer, I am not sure why you think Lee should stop them.
It’s fine to not think Lee is worth the money, but irrational to criticize him for thinking he is when it appears as if at least a couple of teams agree.
A man is starving on the street as Lee bitches about 10 million and it’s not dirty? We live in different worlds my friend, or you’ve never been a week away from losing your home.
It has NOTHING to do with him making his money, it has NOTHING to do with him stopping the Yankees or anyone else from paying him, it’s the way it’s being done.
A team says we’re going to make you the highest paid of all time and you say let me get back to you in a week, I’m going to see if I can get more, at a certain point it’s just stupid.
I would have had a problem with CC telling Cashman give me a week after he gave him the 7 years 160.
Waiting a day is seeing if someone gets desperate waiting until Sunday is praying someone offers you more.
Neither the Angels nor the Rangers have the chance to win that the Yankees do and you already are the highest paid pitcher in baseball history and you still need more to go to New York? Ridiculous!
To drag this whole process out another 3-5 days for what? 10 more dollars? He obviously isn’t overjoyed to play for us, if he were the deal would be done I think it clearly shows the guy cares very little about money or anything outside money.
I understand he can wait and get some more money MAYBE but not much and for sure not another year and if he really wanted to be a Yankee then all this other would be trivial, what is the differnce in 25 and 26 milion a year?
I’m sorry this whole process is starting to feel real dirty!
Definitely have to disagree. Remember how long CC waited after receiving his monster initial offer? Remember how bad CC wanted to stay closer to the west coast? Remember how much he preferred the National League because of the chance he’d have to hit? This is nothing.
It’s one thing to get a big offer and hold out to be the highest paid it’s quite another to be offered the highest amount ever and say “no, the most money all time isn’t good enough for the almighty Lee, make it 7 years and most money ever.”.
Cashman went to his house, made him the highest paid pitcher ever and he took it, he didn’t say go back to New York and I’ll call you in a week. The whole thing was much more personal and you got the feeling that while money was important he was going to do what was best for his family first, with Lee I don’t think he cares anything but Cash.
Also, wanting to make sure you and your family are comfortable on a coast you’ve never been too is totally different than trying to hold out for 10 million dollars or so just saying.
Nothing I have ever seen out of Sabathia has nothing but pure class… Lee doesn’t seem to be in the same category with CC in their.
First off, if Lee doesn’t sign with the Yankees, don’t panic. It may take some time, but players do become available. The Yankees may struggle but, should they stay in the race, deals can be made in season. The roster that leaves spring training is never the one that ends the season.
It was to be expected that Boston would spend heavily to make itself stronger. I think its rotation is very overrated, though, and even with a stronger line-up its success is by no means certain.
If they stay healthy their success is guaranteed, I agree the rotation is overrated but Lester and Buccholz can pitch and Beckett and Lackey wil be better than they were last year so they should get 95 wins easy.
Along the lines your talking about scout I think if the Marlins aren’t in contention come the all-star break you might be able to get Josh Johnson out of their and if not Nolasco would almost certainly be available.
IMO, Cliff Lee has a great shot of remaining a good pitcher in his late 30s in a competitive environment, The work load isn’t bad and he’s shown tremendous success all while not being the proto-typical power pitcher. There is precedent … Jamie Moyer.
Was Moyer ever worth 25 million for 7 years?
No, but Jamie Moyer is not Cliff Lee. Just an example of an old LHP who has continued to have success despite the lack of an electric fastball. Cliff Lee is a surgeon. He is one of the few pitchers that deserves a big contract into his mid-late 30′s.
Realistically though this is a guy who has had back problems this year and only has 3 years of experience as a good starter and we’re giving him whatever he wants, how much will he really be worth when he’s 37-39 making 23+ million in each of those years? 10-11 max?
The belief is the Yankees have several contract offers on the table and they are believed to 5 years 25 million per, 6 years 24 million per and 7 years 23 million per.
Really the only one I can agree with is 5 years 25 million a year because if your going to overpay you might as well overpay by enough to shorten the length of the deal, I have no problem paying him that much money if it means he’s out of here by 37.