(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
Over the last 24 hours, the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres have all but agreed to a deal that would send All Star 1B Adrian Gonzalez headed east for a package of prospects. Although no one can dispute Gonzalez’ talents as a player, does the move alone make the Red Sox better?
There are two small red flags with Gonzalez. The first is he has played most of his career in one of the weakest divisions in baseball: the National League West. Because performance is best measured relative to competition, the Padres’ 1B may not be as successful playing in the AL East. Again, that’s not really a major concern, but it could suggest a lower level to what should be high expectations. The second question mark deals with Gonzalez’ recent surgery to repair his injured right shoulder. Speaking on XX1090AM in San Diego, the Padres’ slugging 1B indicated the surgery would require a long rehab and that he might not be able to swing a bat for 4-5 months. That was on November 10. Doing the math, it’s possible that Gonzalez will not be ready to take his normal cuts until at least Spring Training, but perhaps as late as Opening Day. If the latter, it’s very possible that Gonzalez wouldn’t be in peak form until several weeks, or months, into the season.
Even with both of those concerns noted, acquiring Gonzalez is close to a no-brainer for the Red Sox, provided they are able to sign him to a long-term contract. Of course, picking up star players in the trade market also comes with another cost, which in this case could be Casey Kelly (ranked 18th overall by ESPN’s Keith Law), the team’s top prospect. If the combination of money expended (Gonzalez’ 2011 salary is a low $6.3 million, but a renegotiated deal could inflate that figure) and prospects traded prevent the team from making another acquisition (e.g., Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Justin Upton, etc.), the end result might not look so good.
Finally, if the deal for Gonzalez is consummated, that likely means the end of Adrian Beltre’s brief time in Boston. Going forward, it’s almost certain that Gonzalez will be a more productive hitter than Beltre. However, it isn’t for sure that he’ll perform much better than Beltre did in 2010. So, when you also consider Beltre’s top-shelf defense at a key position like third, the exchange becomes even less favorable. After all, Gonzalez’ gold glove at 1B will be replacing Kevin Youkilis’, who would be asked to move across the diamond to third, where he isn’t as sound defensively. Even if Youkilis is able to play third base at an acceptable level, he likely will not be in the class of Beltre. As a result, with all things considered, the Red Sox could be taking a step back in terms of infield defense.
With the departure of Beltre and Victor Martinez, the Red Sox have some ground to make up on offense. Without a doubt, Adrian Gonzalez goes along way toward doing just that. However, Boston will need its new acquisition to be healthy as well as able to make a quick adjustment to the AL East. What’s more, after wrapping up the deal, the Red Sox will need to have enough flexibility to make another addition. If everything falls into place, the deal should revive Boston’s standing in the division, but if the questions mentioned above are not answered in the affirmative, the benefit of adding Gonzalez might wind up being a more long-term proposition.
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28 Responses to Does Adrian Gonzalez Make the Red Sox Better?
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TIQ IQ
This is a great move for the Sox. Beltre only shows up on contract years and Gonzalez (28 years old) has been mashing the ball in a pitching friendly park w/ zero protection his whole career. Also, he doesn’t disappear offensively for months at a time like some other AL East first basemen.
Well said, Oz.
Doesn’t matter that Beltre only shows up on contract years. The point was AGon in 2011 isn’t a big improvement over Beltre in 2010. Also, the comparison to Beltre is based on park adjusted data, which takes into account Petco.
It’s great if you prefer AGon’s consistency (Tex’ only “bad” split is April), but I am not sure where I made a comparison between the two players.
William J. said: “The point was AGon in 2011 isn’t a big improvement over Beltre in 2010.”
Well, that might have been your point, but it was a silly point. The Red Sox can’t bank Beltre’s 2010 performance against future players, and using such an aberrant season as a yardstick to measure other players would be completely ridiculous.
There is no doubt that Beltre had an outstanding season in 2010, but how much would you bet, if you were a manager, on him repeating that performance over the next couple of years? Beltre had an OPS+ of 141 this year. This followed seasons where his OPS+ was 83, 108, 112, 105, and 93. Gonzalez’s OPS+ has not dipped below 125 in the past 5 years, and for the past 2 has been over 150. Beltre is 31 years old; Gonzalez is 28.
I concede it’s possible that 2010 was the beginning of an Adrian Beltre golden age. He might surprise the hell out of me and come out with another 3 or 4 seasons of OPS+ 140 hitting. Stranger things have happened in baseball. But if I were taking bets over the two Adrians going forward (rather than looking backwards only at 2010), I’d take the Gonzalez version every time.
That is all true, but it speaks past William’s point. Gonzalez is not likely to be significantly better than Beltre was in 2010 going forward. The comparison is not Beltre vs. Gonzalez, it is Beltre’s 2010 vs. Gonzalez’ likely numbers in 2011. You would have to guess that they will be pretty similar, thus making for what is likely to be, at best, a small improvement.
The Red Sox needed to address a couple things: aging power hitters and avoiding dishing out panic contract.
I doubt Adrian Gonzalez can post a better OPS than what Beltre posted in 2010, but he really doesn’t have to considering THEO and co. are banking on healthier seasons from Youkilis and Pedroia. Beltre’s probably looking for a 4-5 year contract; a demand I can understand Theo just not wanting to green-light. Beltre might not ever be as good again , while Gonzalez has got another decade in front of him of All-Star hitting.
The RS are very much improved.
Boston is lining up to have the best team in the division (unless we sign Lee in which case I might re-think my position).
It’s always hard to accept when Boston is the best, but just look at their roster. All they need is health.
If they add Werth or Crawford then Lee might not even be enough….
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Crawford
Gonzalez
Youkilis
Ortiz
Drew
Scutaro
Salty/Tek
Lester
Beckett
Buchholz
Lackey
Dice K
The Red Sox are easily looking at the best in the East let’s try and not act like spoiled children and act like they aren’t that good or that they needed a huge “upgrade” because of last year, as long as they are healthy they’ll win 100 easy.
I do love how teams try and hamstring the Yankees in trades but the Red Sox got Gonzo for Casey Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes…. AKA 3 minor leaugers 1 of which I think is in triple A. Ridiculous!
According the Jon Heyman the Sox are more likely to add Werth than Crawford but that they will most likely add one of those two even with Agon in the mix.
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Youkilis
Gonzalez
Werth
Ortiz
Drew
Scutaro
Salty/Tek
Really either way it’s a scary lineup and with Werth they can actually put Gonzo 3rd and move Youk to 4th.
I think it’s a fair trade.
If I have Gonzalez being worth $22.5mil in 2011 and he will be paid $5.5mil as of now. That’s $17mil in net value.
Using Victor Wang’s prospect value info, I have the Padres package around $33mil so they got more than enough in return. If the Sox sign A-Gonz long term to a fair deal, than the contract will come out to a net value of $0 so the Padres will +$16mil or so in this deal. I have Gonzalez around 6/$125mil.
So I think it’s a good trade for both teams.
But yeah, I think Boston will get one of the big OF FA’s making them pretty good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win 100 games in the mighty East.
I’d actually prefer them to get Crawford. He will probably be more years/money which will handcuff more than Werth down the road. Plus, we’ve dealt with CC in the East for years already, I don’t mind playing him 18 games a season still. Moreover, if his speed/defense goes down, he will lose a lot of value. I think Werth will age better and will MASH as a righty in Fenway.
I must disagree with that lineup and especially with the addition of Gonzalez I think Crawford would be one of the most dangerous guys in that lineup, he would be hitting 3rd surrounded by all stars in front and back of him while hitting 20 HRs, driving in 90-100 and stealing 40-60 every year, combine his speed with Ellsbury leading off and Gonzo and Youk’s power and that is dangerous!
Werth is what 32 and Crawford is 28 even if Carl doesn’t age well he won’t start slowing down until 34-36 and his contract will either be a year away from finished or finished by then and you move on, Werth has proven he had a hard time “being the man” when he had to hit higher in the order and take some of the ABs left by Howard and Rollins while Crawford has never had a problem coming up big or hitting high in a lineup. Werth struggled in the playoffs everytime he hit above 5 this season and by the time he is at the end of a 5 or 6 year deal I think he will be like JD Drew.
Crawford has a career BA of .300 vs the Red Sox and .301 vs the Yankees and a .320+ in Yankee stadium so I think he has done more than his share of hitting against us already and most of that was hitting 1-2 once he fully takes over as a 3 hitter he will have more ability to swing for power (career high 19 this year) and more opportunities to drive in runs as well as score them.
As far as the trade goes I don’t really care if it’s “valued at 33 million” they are all prospects so Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes have a chance of never actually playing for San Diego which to me means it’s an iffy deal for now, I know it isn’t a bad deal but like I said I think you could get this at the trade deadline and if I was San Diego I would have held out for an MLB player like Buccholz or at the least Ellsbury or Bard.
Boston will need its new acquisition to be healthy as well as able to make a quick adjustment to the AL East.
The first question from above (directly out of your article applies to ANY player) not just player for the Red Sox. I’m pretty sure the same applies to Rodriguez, Jeter, and Teixeira. Granted, Gonzalez’s situation is more of a concern because of the surgery, but the question still remains for ALL players Also, as to whether or not a player can make a quick adjustment to the AL East; that applies to any player that is traded to the AL East. Beltre didn’t come from the AL East, Teixeira didn’t come from the AL East, Sabathia didn’t come from the AL East. If Lee gets picked up by the Sox or the Yankees, the same question will apply to him.
That trade is a joke. They got 3 prospects – none of which are near major league ready. For a young consistent MVP candidate. It would be one thing if this trade were made in July, but in November? Really? This cache was so great, the padres had to pull the trigger now and not shop him around for another month or two?? What a joke.
I also don’t buy into the needs time to adjust to the AL East stuff for him because he’s coming from one of the hardest hitting parks in baseball, everyone of his numbers are better on the road than at home so when you stick him in a homer friendly park like Fenway I think that will balance out the “adjustment” period.
The issue with adjusting to the AL East has nothing to do with the parks, but with the opposing pitchers. Unless you think the pitching talent in the NL West is equal to that of the AL East and the NL is equivalent to the AL, generally speaking.
I would remind you that Ian Kennedy put up a quality season in the NL West in 2010. Only CC, Hughes, and Pettitte had WAR equal or greater than Kennedy (2.4 WAR).
And in a very small sample, Gonzalez was 2 for 10 against Kennedy with 2 walks and 4 Ks. Both hits were doubles.
I know what it means… You clearly and totaly missed the point!
My point is that yeah he is going to have an adjustment period to the pitchers but the guy is use to having to hit the ball on the screws to get it out anyway, he’s too good a hitter to be frozen at the plate by new pitchers so if anything he’ll just be a little late here and a little early their while adjusting but being a much smaller park and parks across the board means he won’t have to as on pitches anyway.
Basically what I’m saying is that it will all even out…. sure he’ll have to adjust to the pitchers but the parks he will be playing in will be much smaller than he is use too so that will increase numbers while new pitchers will decrease numbers.
As for Kennedy I don’t really see what he has to do with anything…. Kennedy isn’t an AL East quality pitcher and belongs in the NL West where the parks are bigger (and fit his fly ball style) and the competition amongst the teams are weaker.
Kennedy was helped by changing leagues and being around hitters who hadn’t adjusted to him yet combined with bigger parks, Gonzo will be adjusting to pitchers sure but the parks will be smaller so he will get balls out he wouldn’t normally even fget hits with
Odd that nobody has really mentioned how well Youklis transitions back to 3B. That is hardly a given. He has been injury prone of late playing a relatively stress free defensive position. His defense will be a significant dropoff from Beltre, and will likely be below average, and that’s not factoring the potential for injury. Playing the higher stress defensive position may also affect his offensive output even IF he stays off the DL.
Youk hasn’t really been tearing up his legs recently the injury that cost him last season was a torn thumb ligament and I hardly see how that will cost him any range and it isn’t like he hasn’t played the position before, he wasn’t Beltre over their or anything but he wasn’t bad and if he can just play at that level again between his offense and Adrian’s offense/defense they will be more than fine on the corners.
Besides Ortiz is only under contract for 1 more year so worst case scenario is Youk is awful and next year you move him to DH where you get more production from his bat being healthy all year, the Sox apparently love Jed Lowrie and had they not gotten Agon most likely they would have started him at 3rd so you see a somewhat platoon like split between Youk and Lowrie at 3rd and Ortiz and Youk at DH this season.
That’s a pretty big IF. Youklis is 32. Moving back to 3B is no simple trick. It will be a serious downgrade from Beltre, even IF he can play the kind of defense he has before at third.
Seems unlikely that Youkilis would do much worse (a serious downgrade) than 19 errors and a .957 fielding percentage.
All of the defensive metrics think Beltre was excellent in the field this year, as do most impartial observers and scouts. He made more errors, but he also gets to a lot more balls than most third basemen.
Beltre’s fielding percentage (which takes into account errors and chances) was 12th in MLB among 3rd basemen in 2010. No doubt he is a good defensive player, but last year (his only year with the Red Sox) he was NOT. There is NO reason to think that “Youkilis (who has a career .966 fielding percentage at third) will be a serious downgrade from Beltre, even IF he can play the kind of defense he has before at third”, as compared to what Beltre did last year.
Fielding percentage is not the greatest indicator of defensive performance. Every other metric says that he had a very good defensive year in 2010. Youkilis, while good out there, is not at that level. I dont see it as a serious downgrade, but it is a downgrade.
His fielding % may have .953 or whatever but his UZR which is the current statistic used for defense had him as one of the best in baseball with an 11.5
Beltre has tremendous range and a cannon for an arm both of those thing tend to lend toward errors… Nobody thought Arod wasn’t a good SS making 14 Errors a year (different position I know).
Youk should do fine and like I said between 3rd base, DH, Jed Lowrie and Ortiz they can find enough ABs for his bat between the two maybe three positions.
I agree. Don’t get me wrong, Beltre is a very good defensive third baseman. I just thought it was unrealistic for deadrody to say that Youkilis would be “a serious downgrade” as compared to Beltre
What we disagree with is you saying Beltre had a bad year defensively based on an outdated metric…
For a comparison of Youk to Beltre at third base I looked at Kevin’s career UZR/150 and he has a career rating of 6.9 while playing third and Beltre has a career UZR/150 of 15.3 so yeah it is a pretty huge difference between the two but Youk isn’t a negative defensive player at 3rd.
That is very compelling statistical data. Based on that, I have to concede that you guys are correct. Beltre is significantly better than Youkilis and that Beltre’s season last year wasn’t nearly as bad as I made it out to be. Thanks for setting me straight and also for the civil dialogue.
Theo has a recent history of wanting short contracts, ie Bay, Martinez. Since the contract is just now being written, it should be limited for 2010 to the 6Mil range, not heavily effecting negotiating position for other trades this year. So, length of contract is probably the hangup. When you are in the 50% tax bracket, it doesn’t make too much diffence to delay payment some.