[image title="andrew-brackman-540x341" size="full" id="23745" align="center" linkto="full" ]The high-ceiling trio of Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, and Andrew Brackman are all on the cusp of the major leagues. Although they probably do not compare with Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy in terms of value (the Big Three were way ahead in terms of being better prospects), they do find themselves in a similarly comparable position. Usually when we compare prospects, we’re comparing apples an oranges. Who’s better, the above average-looking catcher in Double-A or the 17 year-old potential all-star in rookie ball? So much separates those players that there really isn’t much to argue. They all started the season in A ball and finished it in Double-A, and are all high-ceiling starting pitchers. I also think that there is an argument out there for each one being the best.
So, who’s the best Killer B? Back in September when I ranked them, I listed Manuel Banuelos as #1, Andrew Brackman as #2, and Dellin Betances as #3. I see no reason to change those rankings now.
I believe that Manuel Banuelos is the best Killer B for a number of reasons. First off, he does not carry the serious injury concerns of Dellin Betances and to a lesser extent Andrew Brackman. He missed half a season with a non-baseball related injury, but has received great comments from several scouts about having a smooth, effortless delivery. He may be small (a foot shorter than Brackman!), but that concerns more more down the line, not immediately. Just a year ago he was considered a top prospect because he threw great secondary pitches and was universally recognized as having poise and pitchability beyond his years. Take that, and realize that all of the sudden he’s not throwing 90-91, but 93-95 from the left side. He’s a safer prospect than people realize (unlike the other two Killer Bs) yet has tons of upside.
I ranked Andrew Brackman second, and below several other Yankee prospects, for a lot of reasons. First off, he’s getting to be a bit old. While I don’t blame Brackman – he had an unorthodox path to the majors – it does raise concerns about his upside. I’m not sure how much more development we can expect out of him. That said, its not like Brackman is lacking in physical tools. The man throws in the mid-90s on a pretty nasty downward plane, and tops it off with one of the best curveballs around. He’s 6’10″ and athletic, and even managed to flash pretty good control last season. But he’s far from a safe product. While he was pretty good in the second half of last season, he could very well lapse into the funk that he could not get out of in 2009. Arm surgery explains some of it, but not all of it. I guess I just have trouble seeing Brackman consistently bring it in the majors, despite the package he brings. He’s on track to definitely be some kind of major league pitcher, but there is a lot of variance in how good he could end up being.
To me, Dellin Betances is a no-brainer at last place. Its not for lack of ability – I ranked Betances #1 ahead of both of them in my all-ceiling ranking. Dellin came back from surgery to throw like the absolute monster he could be – 95-96 with lots of movement and awesome secondary pitches. He’s not just a tall guy, but a really strong, built man, and he has finally matured into that body. The guy can chainsaw through hitters. A lot of people have ranked him #2 in the system after Montero. But come on! Dellin Betances is the Rich Harden of minor leaguers. He’s got a terrible health record, having only stayed healthy for one full season in his career. I’d give him more credit had his 2010 season been a 130+, healthy season, but he didn’t even pitch a full season this year. I’ve learned from being burned so many times by Betances over the years. I’m not buying yet, though I acknowledge the big step forward he made in 2010 by finally putting it all together.
But that’s my opinion. What do you guys thing?
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
36 Responses to Discussion: Which Killer B Is Best?
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
Banuelos
Betances
Brackman
That’s the order I would put them in as well but as far as pure ceiling goes I would go Betances/Banuelos and Brackman.
Brackman reminds me a lot of AJ Burnett a guy with great stuff but he’ll never be as good as the stuff indicates he should be and at the end of the day he is a fastball, curveball pitcher and unless he really works on a change his upside as a starter becomes more limited.
I agree with order and reasons. How do you rank the Excellent Eight? (3 Bs, 2 Ns, Warren, Stoney and Phelps)
Excellent Eight? Not a bad title. I’m more of a traditional Elite Eight kind of guy though.
Here’s where I ranked them before:
Banuelos > Noesi > Stoneburner > Brackman > Nova > Betances > Warren > Ramirez
Phelps is a bit farther down. He’s not a bad prospect by any means, just lower than Ramirez.
So you believe in Noesi more than Nova and Brackman? Interesting scouts don’t rave about the kid at all and I’ve heard skeptics say he’s going to the pen but it’s good to see some belief in him he really does pitch above his stuff you just wonder how well he can play that card it looks to be finally catching up to formerly “big game” James Shield who has become “25 Home Run James” Shield.
Your “interesting scouts” don’t actually exist, so I’m not too worried about them. All observers rave about Noesi. And if James Shields were to retire tomorrow, and Noesi exactly replicated his career, I’d take that without even thinking about it.
(And seriously, its one down season for Shields. Give the guy a break. His BABIP went way up. It happens)
I didn’t actually mean “interesting scouts” and I am pretty sure you know that since that doesn’t make any sense what would an interesting scout even be?
I meant “Interesting, some scouts didn’t rave about him at all….” I was referring to two scouting reports I read in particular that didn’t have high praise on his upside. I forgot the comma because I was on a phone, there is really no reason to be that rude about a punctuation error.
I have actually read one or two scouting reports on Noesi that said he had possessed good control but not a plus fastball or plus offspeed pitches and that it was likely he would in up in the pen where he could maximize his velocity, now I have also read reports that have talked about him in a way that you have in the past as a “more than the sum of the parts” player I was simply asking you what in particular you saw that makes you rank him so high since I have never actually seen him pitch and want to understand the scouting reports fully.
Apparently you chose not to do that and instead go a different direction and be disrespectful instead and since you actually post for this blog I find it a little unprofessional that you go to that level first before considering something else.
Just based off of the numbers I’ve seen and the reports of his actual stuff I think he probably could make it as a starter but I can see why someone would say he could end up in the pen when he doesn’t have plus stuff anywhere and just has to have a good balancing act of bending and not breaking, I was just curious what made you put him above Brackman and Nova. Sorry that was too much for you, thanks for being rude though, made my day better.
Also I never criticized James Shields I made a joke about the guys nickname…. He has always given up 20 HRs per year that is not a one time thing and the only reason he was ever named “big game” is was because he was forced into their “ace” role before the rest of the rotation fell into line.
If Noesi replicated James career I would jump for joy the guy actually does have a knack for coming up big against the Yankees a lot.
I didn’t mean interesting scouts” I think you know that, I forgot the comma I meant to say it was interesting because I have read a couple scouting reports saying he was probably going to end up in the pen, I have read others that read like you describe as a better than the sum of the parts guy.
Attitude problem?
I also never criticized Shields I just stated a fact he gives up 20 HRs a year for his career not just one season I would more than take James Shields career for Noesi.
What’s your problem? I have read at least two scouting reports saying he was going to end up in the pen in their opinion and I was asking you yours to understand what you have seen in him since I haven’t personally seen him pitch no reason to bite my head off over forgetting a comma and acting like I made something up or something, it’s highly uncalled to say the least and we’re not talking about how unprofessional it is.
But way to be about as cold as possible about it for no reason though .
Baneulos
Betances
Brackman
I think Brackman will end up being a reliever.
EJ, ‘preciate the article. Brackman being 24 w/o a lot of wear and tear plus being a great athlete may bode well for a long, great career. Bill James did a study back in the ’80′s that showed that pitchers and catchers that aren’t worked hard at a young age tend to have the longest careers (probably because connective tissue doesn’t fully develop until ~25 years).
Banuelos sounds like a stud. I’m having a brain freeze on Betances injury history, but as long as/if he doesn’t have back or shoulder issues his early early development being slowed may again be a blessing in disguise, as in the case of Brackman. I think that the Yanks should hold on to those guys as well as “all” their catching depth, in a few years Cashman may be able to parlay the excess talent into a monster team. Here’s to hope!
Hey Kevin,
Yeah, I definitely get what you/James are saying about pitchers without a lot of wear and tear. I was more making a comment about projection regarding Brackman. You can look at what Banuelos and to some extent Brackman did in 2010 and project somewhat higher levels of performance on top – Banuelos fills out more, Betances recovers further from surgery. But I think what you see is what you get with Brackman. What we see is actually quite good though.
I remember reading (James?) that if you have to make the choice between pitchers with similar stuff always go for the better athlete, they can make transitions and re-invent themselves and tend to have less repetitve stress injuries…maybe Brackman falls in between David Wells and Randy Johnson (I know, lay off the nitrous), that wouldn’t be too much of a letdown….
Betances biggest problems have been elbow related. I think that there’s been back issues too. Nothing on the shoulder though.
I’m confused as to why everyone talks about Betances like he is a fragile baby when Brackman has had very similar injuries himself and if I’m not mistaken both were taken with the knowledge they would probably have some injury issue and since then both have had Tommy John surgery, I realize Betances may have had a few more injuries maybe but neither one has been pitching consistently since they got here.
Chris, I think that Betances, if he keeps the weight down and his from getting too big (he’s still, of course young) could be a top of rotation starter (from what I’ve read). I imagine he’s on youtube? Jeez he looks like friggin’ J.R. Richards, in size….
He was always a very big kid but he looks to have finally grown into a big mans body and he probably has growing to do as you alluded too his upside is definitely that of an ace in the makings of Josh Beckett but he probably also has the lowest floor of the 3 and thus the farthest to fall, he has a lot of plus tools and attributes but he needs to be taken along slowly which the Yanks seem to be doing.
The scouting report that came out on him on in the middle of the season was a rave review and the most promising part about was how far along his change had come we have always heard about the velocity and the curve but now being able to throw back to back change ups to start and at bat 0-2 and finish with the elevated fastball shows a level of pitching that we didn’t know if he had or not.
THX, hopefully he got past those early 20′s that wipe so many promising careers out….
I think people underestimate Brackman now because they overestimated him in the past…too many “right-handed Randy Johnson” comparisons. 2009 was all about getting him healthy and getting his mechanics in order (no small task for a man that size.) In 2010 we started to see the results: he demonstrated a great progression as the season went on, and his last few starts in AA were great. He’s been healthy for 2 seasons coming off the Tommy John surgery, and he’s starting to show good control and groundball rates, if not elite strikeout numbers. Maybe he doesn’t have an ace ceiling anymore, but guys who throw mid-90′s sinkers and cutters with an excellent curveball can stick in the middle of any big-league rotation
My opinion of Brackman above I have carried since I first started following him just to be clear, I don’t think anyone could or would ever Randy Johnson again just like there will never be another Nolan Ryan but I do agree with your assesment for the most part in fact the only thing I disagree with is is that he can stick with just a curve and a fastball and I’m not even saying he can’t do it AJ has proven that, I just think it is a lot tougher road for him to stay in the big leagues unless he develops some sort of working change, very few AJ Burnett’s stick around as long as he has and it helps him project more long term and in the AL as well.
Yeah China Joe, I think you’re dead on here. It hurts to get our expectations let down, but there’s no reason to believe that Brackman can’t be very good. Though I would say that the college-age assessments of Brackman as a HOF-type pitcher weren’t inaccurate. Before he hurt his elbow, he was throwing 100 mph easy.
He throws a change, from what I’ve heard, it’s just behind his other pitches. You can say that about most guys in the minors. He’s still working on it, though…so it’s not an AJ situation. If he can get it to around an average level, he’ll be set.
In comparison to reports on Banuelos and Betances he has the worst changeup in the group… and AJ does throw a change up 1% if the time ;) haha
Yeah that’s what I mean though if he can just get to the point where hitters respect that he could throw the change then he will be fine with plus velocity and a hard bighting curveball with his height.
Please provide a list of the top 50, 5’10 starting pitchers of the past 25 years who made the All Star team, so we can see others who he projects to be like.O.K, how about 5?
Best case:closer
Probable: 8th inning type or Loogy
Tim Lincecum 5’11, 172 pounds (I highly doubt the 5’11)
Bartolo Colon had a good career at no taller than 5’11
Fernando Valenzuela was 5’11
Ron Guidry was 5’11 160 pounds
Whitey Ford was 5’10 if you want to start going further back.
So you’re saying with most of the people in the world in the 5’10 area there are a few 5’10 guys who made it?
How many Jairo Heredia’s are there compared to them? Many of these smaller kids peak early,
Actually almost all of them do.If they aren’t good quickly, nobody is even interested.
Whitey Ford? he’s 80, Eddie Schantz was even smaller but you’re talking 1950′s, early 60′s.
Brackman appears to be by far the best and will be in the majors next season, maybe not in April but he should be there eventually.Throws strikes now and can make 30 starts in a year or so, I just don’t see Man BAn doing that year after year if ever.Love to be proved wrong but i think this is fools gold.
No there are plenty of 5’11 pitchers in the world and many of them are probably smaller, if you really wanted me too I could find every pitcher in the last 25 years who had success for a 5 year period or more under 6 foot I probably could make a pretty huge list.
What it sounds like your saying is that if the Yankees had lied and said he was 5’11 or 6’0 or if they lie in the future and say he grows and inch or two (he’s still 20 he could) then we wouldn’t be having this conversation?
Not to mention Pedro.
Height is just a number. If he was 6’0, no one would be talking about it. Its a concern, but not a particularly big one. Banuelos isn’t all that much smaller than Greg Maddux. Glavine wasn’t a big guy either. And Roy Oswalt is listed at 6’0, but I’ve seen him in person and he’s probably a bit smaller.
Also, to apply a piece of logic that I use in hockey: Small guys have to do that much more to get where they are, so if they’ve gotten somewhere, they’ve got something going for them. If you’re 6’4″, you’re going to get a lot of looks from scouts even if you have a lot of flaws. But a little guy like Banuelos has to stand out to get a chance.
See the Devils’ rookie defenseman Matt Taormina, or former winger Brian Gionta.
Johan Santana is listed at 6’0″. Would anybody be surprised if he was REALLY more like 5’11″? You also have Wandy Rodriguez. I don’t really like Wandy very much, but it would be hard to complain if ManBan put up similar numbers.
Wandy is listed at 5’11 but as someone has seen him and is 5’11 he is not 5’11…. Also Wandy tops out at 89-90 MPH we have Banuelos sitting 93-95 and his old velocity was even above what Wandy is putting up.
But we know M anny is at least 5’10?
Pedro wasn’t much before the roids.
I really don’t think its worth the time having to defend Pedro as awesome.
Yeah, he may be smaller. Or he may be bigger, and the 5’10″ list is outdated. Who knows. The difference between Banuelos and a beavy of successful MLB starters is the difference between 70 and 72 inches.
You mean after right? He pretty much always had a blister fastball that’s one of the things that got him scouted but he was small so teams shied away thinking he might break down, his brother was a pitcher before him but flamed out with an arm injury but he was bigger than Pedro was, Martinez has always said his brother was the better pitcher between the two but the smaller one made it much longer and is probably the most dominate pitcher for the first 100 pitches of the last 20 years.
I’m with Sickels in going 1) Dellin 2) Banuelos 3) Brackman
Most of Dellin’s health issues were related to his elbow, which everyone thought was going to go at some point and was repaired last year. Elbows (unlike shoulders) have a high success rate with surgery. Some guy named Mariano had the exact same procedure as a minor leaguer and worked out pretty good for us.
I love everything about Manny Banny, but his size makes me think he’ll wind up in the bullpen on a team like the Yanks. They’d rather get a long career in relief out of him than a short one as a starter. His stuff, poise and pitchability make me think he’s a potential closer, not just a LOOGY.
Brackman? Its always been all about projection with him. He took big strides last year, but the results still aren’t there yet. At 25, it’s getting time to start blowing away minor leaguers, late start or not.
What does Brackman’s age have to do with anything?
He signed late out of college where Basketball was his main deal, and took 2 years to get back from the TJ surgery.
No surprise there, I view him experience-wise as a 22-23 year old.
RAndy Johnson didn’t make it to the majors until around 25-26 if I remember correctly.