2010 Season in Review: Jorge Posada

Why don’t we start with this: Are you a “glass half full” or “glass half empty” kind of fan? Depending on your outlook, Jorge Posada’s “Season in Review” could have a distinctly different feel to it. Let’s take a further look.

The first point worth addressing pertains to his health. The veteran backstop experienced a plethora of injuries ranging from various strains, to concussion-like symptoms, to a torn meniscus. The net effect: a lot more Francisco Cervelli than many of us care to remember. With that being said, Posada managed to play in 120 games. His 451 plate appearances were the most he’s amassed since 2007 (589). Realistically, how much more durability can one expect from a 38-year-old catcher? Frankly, it’s a bit of a miracle that Posada has defied age this long while also maintaining prolific production with the bat*.

Sure, Posada’s batting average was pretty lousy (.248); in fact, it was his lowest since 1999 (.245). After becoming accustomed to his career .275 batting average, it’s certainly understandable how some would find this dip distressing. It’s not all doom and gloom, though. One could reasonably assume his injuries affected his batting average. He was extremely hot with the bat in April (.310) and a small portion of May (.355) during the period in which he was able to play. June marked a pretty abysmal stretch although that could have been resultant of May’s injury and his subsequent need to re-find his form. However, his numbers bounced back significantly in July and August.

Additionally, I was pleasantly surprised to see that Posada’s 2010 postseason triple slashes — while still pretty bad — weren’t quite as poor as I initially figured (ALDS: .273/.333/.273; ALCS: .263/.300/.368). For those of you who were wondering, his career postseason line over 473 plate appearances is .241/.349/.381. Honestly, he could have been more effective with the bat, but then, you could essentially say the same thing about the rest of the team not named Curtis Granderson.

His other offensive stats are also fairly intriguing. When comparing Posada to the rest of the league’s catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, his bat still proves potent. He posted a .357 OBP (5th-highest), .454 SLG (6th-highest), .357 wOBA (6th-highest), 18 HR (6th-highest), and a 13.1 BB% (2nd-highest). Not bad, right?

However, his BABIP (.287) does warrant some cause for consternation. In fact, it was the lowest it’s been since 1997 (.272), when he had an abridged amount of plate appearances (224). Perhaps this was influenced by a worsened line drive rate (18.5% compared with a career average of 20.2%). In other words, although Posada was experiencing a fairly good contact rate, he wasn’t putting a whole lot of force behind it.

For what it’s worth, Bill James projects his BABIP to spike back up to .310 in 2011, which is much more in line with his career norm. If Jorge can maintain his health next year given the decreased workload behind the plate, there’s absolutely no reason to not expect another solid year’s worth of offensive production while in a part time catcher/DH role.

Defensive value wasn’t exactly Jorge’s forte in 2010; but then again, what else is new? His caught stealing rate (15%) was well below league average (30%) — although I’ve noted in the past that this isn’t an entirely fair stat — and he allowed 8 passed balls (perhaps A.J. Burnett is responsible for a few of them). Combined with Cervelli’s apparent defensive ineptitude, it’s hard to be optimistic about next season’s catching (in terms of defense) with Jesus Montero learning the rigors of the Majors. Honestly, who really cares though? If Posada continues to hit beyond that of an average catcher, his lackluster defense isn’t the end of the world. Ditto for Montero.

Regardless of whether you subscribe to bWAR (1.6) or fWAR (2.4), Posada’s estimated dollar worth ($9.7M) certainly fell short of his salary ($13.1M). Still, it’s not grossly disproportionate, and should Jorge perform well next season, the Yankees will have been extremely fortunate in how well this contract agreement has played out for both sides involved. In short, his 2010 season could have gone better in the sense that Posada missed quite a bit of time, but it could have absolutely been quite a bit worse had his production significantly faltered.

I suppose we could always soak our hands in urine in the spirit of embracing disgusting baseball superstitions and hope for the best in 2011.

*Here’s a fun statistical nugget for all you Jorge groupies (compliments of RAB). “He just turned 39 in August, though this was his age-38 season. Only one catcher in history has produced an OPS+ of more than 100 in his age-38 or later season while playing at least 60 percent of his games at catcher. That would be Carlton Fisk, who had a 136 OPS+ in 419 PA at age 41, and a 134 OPS+ in 521 PA at age 42. This year Posada has a 123 OPS+ in 421 PA. His .478 SLG currently ranks above any catcher in his age-38 or higher season.” That’ll do, Jorge. That’ll do.