I didn’t come up with that title all my own, FanGraphs did. That doesn’t mean, though, that I’m not going to piggyback the article and add my own thoughts.
To me, the possibility of Lee declining the Yankees might be the most interesting question of the off-season, because there is no obvious Plan B. After Lee, the next best free agent starters are Jorge de la Rosa, Carl Pavano, and Andy Pettitte. Bringing back Pettitte just keeps the status quo rather than providing an upgrade, so he’s not a real alternative. There’s no way the Yankees go back to Pavano after the debacle that was his first stint in pinstripes. That leaves them with de la Rosa, who is something of a left-handed A.J. Burnett – not a great fit when they’re frustrated with the right-handed version they already own.
Well that’s a hell of a downer, huh? Dave Cameron is at least partially right here, though. If the Yankees don’t get Lee, they’ll obviously work as hard as possible to make sure Andy Pettitte doesn’t retire. Let’s assume he doesn’t. That would make the Yankee rotation: CC Sabathia/A.J. Burnett/Andy Pettitte/Phil Hughes/(mystery man)
That’s solid enough to get by, but there are still just enough question marks to wonder if the Yankees could advance in the playoffs with that rotation–they could get there with those four and someone else so long as the offense does its thing. Can Phil Hughes improve upon–or at least repeat–2010? Will age catch up to Pettitte? Is he due for some regression after 2010 (short answer: maybe but not all that much)? What the hell is A.J. Burnett going to do with himself? Will innings catch up to CC?
Before I go any further down this intersection of Doom Avenue and Gloom Street, let’s remember that no rotation is without some question marks. The Yankees will have some, but so will everyone else.
The trade market is unlikely to bear much fruit.
The most interesting name on those lists is Florida’s Ricky Nolasco. He may not be as sexy a name as Josh Johnson, but he’s talented. I’m not sure what it would take for the Yankees to acquire him, and they may not be able to do it until the 2011 season has started up, but I think he’s worth watching.
Internal options could surface–like Hector Noesi or Ivan Nova. The Yankees could live with one of these guys as a fifth starter, but they could also go another way: the Rule V draft. Over the next month or so, we’ll get a better idea of whom teams will protect and whom they won’t. When that happens, the Yankees will have the option of taking a Rule V flier on a starting pitcher.
If the Yankees don’t get Cliff Lee, it would be bad. Any time a team misses out on a player that great it’s a bad thing. However, the situation may not be as bleak as we think.
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6 Responses to What if the Yankees Don't Get Cliff Lee?
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TIQ IQ
If the Yankees don’t get Lee I think they will look to make a big trade.
Honestly, if the Yankees don’t land Lee and Cashman REALLY wants pitching, I think they could pry Johnson away from Florida. It would require dealing Montero though, obviously. As well as a ton of other prospects.
Kuroda as a free agent on a 2 year deal would be nice.
Trade for John Danks but he will cost Gardner plus.
You want a 37 year old pitcher who has never pitched in the AL on a 2 year deal? Kuroda should get nothing but a 1 year deal and only if no one is available via trade.
Your rotation breakdown should actually be Sabathia/Empty/Pettitte/Hughes/Burnett. Burnett is garbage and he doesn’t even deserve to be on our payroll after last season’s shit show. Since that is not an option, the Yanks need to banish him to the No. 5 spot and let him earn his way back.
The Yankees aren’t doomed if they don’t get Cliff Lee, but there are in a lot more trouble than anyone would care to realize. And, honestly, I even feel a little ridiculous admitting that to myself considering all the money the Yanks have spent on pitching over the past couple of seasons, but its the truth. If they don’t get Lee, they won’t have a real No. 2 starter AND they’ll likely end up giving the fifth starter spot to a youngster in addition to having Burnett’s auto-loss every fifth day. Could they still make the postseason? Of course…I just don’t like the situation.
If they end up having to trade Montero in a deal for a guy they want/need, the damage will extend into the middle of the decade. I may be coming across as overly pessimistic, but Cashman just needs to put the full-court press on from Day 1. He needs to have a backup plan in mind, but at the same time he needs to approach Lee as if there is no alternative.
Actually, I came up with this title a couple weeks ago.
http://www.andaplayertobenamedlater.com/2010/10/what-if-yankees-miss-on-cliff-lee.html