Justin Upton is as good a bet as any to become a superstar. Moshe already went over how good Upton could potentially be. There are enough rumors floating around right now to make his trade at least a theoretical possibility. I would like to offer three deals that I would do for Upton, that I think the diamond backs would accept.
First, I think I understand what Kevin Towers is thinking. The Diamondbacks have, put simply, a terrible farm system. They lost a lot in the Dan Haren trade, and haven’t been especially good on draft day. Their best prospect Jarrod Parker went down with an arm injury, and it remains to be seen if he recovers. Beyond him, there isn’t a lot to write home about.
Besides Upton, their MLB team doesn’t have a lot of really bright spots. Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Chris Young, Kelly Johnson (for now, at least), and Mark Reynolds form a solid little hitting core, but aren’t anything special. Justin Upton is the lone standout hitter in their organization. Things are worse on the pitching side – Ian Kennedy had a great season, but no one else did. Joe Saunders doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. They are now without Dan Haren and Brandon Webb without any real replacements for their production.
Arizona needs pitching, but they also need upgrades across the board in their lineup. Specifically, they’ll need someone at 2b (after Johnson leaves), the outfield corners, and possibly 1st base. I don’t think that Towers is expecting his team to go into full-out rebuilding mode – if he does, the Yankees should seriously be interested in Stephen Drew – but rather I think they view Justin Upton as someone who might be slightly overvalued to the rest of the league relative to his value to the Diamondbacks. He could get a lot of important pieces for the young star, save some payroll room, and probably increase his team’s chance of winning.
The Yankees, on the other hand, should actually value a player like Upton over some other types of players. First, they have a lot of prospects with blocked positions (Laird, Adams, theoretically Montero or Romine, plus guys like Phelps and D.J. Mitchell) in the high minors who could be valuable to the Diamondbacks. Second, the nature of their huge payroll and aging roster puts a premium on young stars like Upton. So, here are three deals that I think could happen:
To the Yankees: Justin Upton. To the Diamondbacks: Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, David Adams, David Phelps
Make no mistake, Brett Gardner has a ton of value. So does Jesus Montero. They are the blue-chip centerpieces for this deal, and should both immediately improve the Diamondbacks. Brett Gardner provides solid production in one of the now-vacated Arizona corner outfield positions for much less money than Justin Upton. The Diamondbacks would probably look at Montero as a 1st baseman. David Adams gives them a Kelly Johnson replacement, David Phelps should make their team as a starting pitcher.
To the Yankees: Justin Upton. To the Diamondbacks: Brett Gardner, Manuel Banuelos, Joba Chamberlain, David Adams, Hector Noesi
Here, the Yankees want to hold on to Montero. He is set to play an important role on their 2011 team, and no obvious candidates exist to replace his production. Brett Gardner again serves as the major center piece, but the other players are sweetened a bit to replace Jesus. Banuelos is the best of the Killer B’s, and Kevin Towers knows it. He also knows just how underrated both David Adams and especially Hector Noesi are, thanks to his experience in the Yankee organization. Joba Chamberlain is a change of scenery candidate, and could very well join Ian Kennedy in the Dbacks rotation.
To the Yankees: Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson. To the Diamondbacks: Jesus Montero, Joba Chamberlain, David Adams, David Phelps, Ivan Nova
The Diamondbacks decline interest in Brett Gardner. Presumably, the Yankees would trade one of their three outfielders at some point in the future, or DH Nick Swisher. The Yankees hand the Dbacks their prized prospect, two MLB-ready pitchers, plus Adams and Chamberlain. The alternate scenario here involves a three-team trade where Gardner goes somewhere else, and the Yankees contribute only Montero to Arizona.
Obviously, this is just an intellectual exercise, but following it I’m reasonably confident that the Yankees can endure the prospect loss associated with this kind of a big trade. In fact, I think they could probably throw in a little more if necessary. But Jesus and Gardner are strong trade chips, and the Yankees can endure losses to the upper level farm system all over the place. Names like Adam Warren and Brandon Laird are also substitutable for Adams, Nova, and Phelps.
The Yankees should try their best to go out and get Upton. What would you guys offer the Dbacks?
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42 Responses to Three Deals For Justin Upton
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If i’m KT and looking to rebuild the farm, i want power pitchers. That means a package fronted with TWO killa Bs. Sorry, EJ , all those packages are a tad too homer to be realistic.
Banuelos, Betances, Laird, David Adams, and Brett Gardner. A trade has gotta hurt to be realistc.
I’d try to keep Montero off the table, and the best way to achieve that is to give up TWO killa Bs.
As much as the Killer B’s excite me, I don’t think I would hesitate to trade two of them in a deal for Justin Upton – if that means Montero stays off the table. That is just my emotional response at this very moment, but Upton is a known quantity that still possesses considerable upside. The Killer B’s only have considerable upside to offer.
Your emotional reactions are a lot more rational than mine, you are exactly right the killer B’s are 3 kids in double and triple A who have never been allowed to be off a pitch count leash and in every instance is either just had velocity go up or just finished their best non injured season, Justin Upton is an established 23 year old ball player under control for 4 more years with the ability to be re-signed while still in his 20′s.
I’ll give Joba, Nova, Adams, and Romine for Upton but personally Montero and Banuelos are off limits. A Cabrera bat, and the only Left Handed starter in the entire system is not worth a Upton.
So, I think people underrate Brett Gardner. He’s probably the #3 or 4 most valuable trading asset in the organization right now, behind Cano, Montero, and possibly Hughes. I think Kevin Towers is smart enough to recommend that.
I also think that Joba still carries some value. Especially since he didn’t have as bad a year as people realize (sub-3.00 FIP, fantastic K/BB rates). So I still stand by these as fair trades.
Of course, “fair” isn’t actually “market value”, so like I alluded to at the bottom of the post, I wouldn’t be opposed to including another Killer B or someone in deals 2 or 3.
And make no mistake, losing Montero and/or Gardner will hurt.
I would do deal 2 but I only see it working if you add a killer B and take out Joba, Gardner does have a lot of trade value but at best he his replacing Upton and he can’t play Rf so they have to move Chris Young off CF.
I also don’t think losing Gardner would hurt that bad at al if you replace him with a guy who can hit 25-30 more HRs and steal 20 bases.
I feel like in almost all these scenarios you are giving up too much for upton. I am a HUGE upton guy and think he has the tools to be an elite player for years to come. That said he has struggled with inconsistency and strikeout issues, I do believe in the healing power of Long, and think he could work wonders on Upton’s plate discipline as we saw him do with Cano. That said the yankees are due to have a bloated payroll for the next few years thanks to guys like cc, jeter arod, burnette and presumably lee, they need to value cheap production in order to keep their team payroll manageable. I understand trading montero, as romaine has potential to be the catcher and d.j. mitchell and Sanchez making splashes in the minors, and I understand the value a guy like garderer has under team control and cheap for the set of defensive and offensive skills he brings to the table. That said i could see a package of montero and Gardener along with Joba as about the maximum I would spend even for upton. If scouts are to be believed Montero could come up and have a huge effect with his bat, and if the yankees are to be believed he can catch. Having Posada has spoiled us yankees fans, and having a hitting catcher can really have a HUGE impact on an organization. I value Gardener more highly then ellsbury, because of similar skill sets with better defense, lower salary and personal make up. Joba needs to get out of New York but still has a talent and potential and has more value to other teams than he does to the yankees right now. I don’t see how you can give up one of the Killer B’s along with montero and gardener, much less empty the farm system even if it is with guys blocked at certain positions.
So, I actually agree that an Upton trade carries some risk. Everything you said about inconsistency and K rates is absolute true. However, the man is just 23 years old. We haven’t seen the best of him. Think about the improvements to things like plate discipline and power that Cano made between 23 and 26.
But that’s a risk I’m willing to take. Because I think the likely ranges of Upton production over the next half-decade range from “Above average RF” to “Superstar”.
Yeah i am with you EJ, I think we will see him as a superstar in the league by the time he turns 27. The risk is not the part I would worry most about in these trade scenarios, it is more the overall value we would be giving up versus receiving. Maybe I overvalue gardener but losing both he and montero would hurt a lot, and throwing in one or two of the killer B’s could be very very tough. I only see a deal like this as manageable if it is all but certain Upton is headed to the redsox, and a move like this is necessary to outbid and block it. Barring that scenario I like the situation the team is in with cheap productive outfielders. It would hurt to have Upton on the sox for the next few years. Especially in Fenway park the right handed kid would wreak havoc.
Its really hard to pin a value on Gardner. I think he’s definitely very good. If he can maintain a career .350 OBP, his defense alone should make him a valuable player. I think there is some risk that Gardner crashes back to earth and hits .250/.325/.340 for the rest of his career, but I think the chance that he roughly replicates his 2010 season and the crash back to earth are relatively equal. Still, he’s cheap and will stay cheap for awhile, so he should be a really valuable player. In the grand scheme of things, he’s not all that different from Carl Crawford.
He’s not all that different from Crawford except I think Crawford will have a longer career because has a level of power that Gardner simply doesn’t possess and let’s face it, once Brett’s speed dwindles his career is over.
Gardner’s speed may (barring injury will) be well above average for ten more years, plus he probably adds a little more power. Players such as Otis Nixon, Brett Butler, Gary Pettis, and Willie Mcgee to name a few off the top of my head were exceptional players, that (with the exception of Pettis) played until age 40. The skill that traditionally leaves ballplayers (until the steroid “thing”) first is power.
You can not say it WILL be the same speed for 10 years without injury, the normal human reactions start slowing down around 32 or so and at that point he is going to lose some infield hits, his ability to steal 50 bases and his bat is not good enough for him to be decently fast and his leads and timing on base stealing isn’t good enough for him to lose much speed. The guy straight up out runs the ball to the bag but it takes him forever to actually get a read on a pitcher and when he finally does he almost always gets a late start but his speed takes over.
I understand how good Gardner was this year but he isn’t Carl Crawford when it comes to power and he isn’t the best hitter in the wolrd he is just a pesky kid with a lot of guts and gusto but once his speed starts to go his career will follow IMO.
I think Gardner can be good in this league for 5 or 6 more years but after that I’m not so sure anymore where he will be but I also think that over those 5 or 6 years Justin Upton will be a better player and a more dynamic player with more tools than Brett.
Let’s not act like Gardner is 24 here people Brett is going to be 28 in August next season so you are guaranteeing his speed to stay at the same level until he is 38 and there is almost no way he can physically do that, even Rickey Henderso slowed down late in his 30′s.
Except Gardner has a record of always getting better at whatever level he’s in.
So, he leans to swing at third strikes, and bunts; what’s he worth then? There were 2 outfielders in the AL with a higher OBP. What, 3 base stealers with his amount or better? And he had 43-45% of the Yankees total.
Plus, to my mind, you have too many guys who strike out a lot, that doesn’t play well in Championship games.
I see no way in hell the Yankees trade Gardner, a “killer B” and Montero, if anything I think they would trade Gardner and 2 “Bees” before ever touching Montero and to go further I don’t think the Yankees will trade Montero for anyone who isn’t an ace caliber, young starter and nothing else.
If we can’t get Towers to take a deal without Montero we won’t talk much about it and from what I’ve read the Yankees haven’t been in this since day 1 when they called and Towers asking price was “ridiculous.”.
I am 1000% against doing anything because the Red Sox are doing it, the worst way to do buisness is to do something based on someone elses strategy and not your own. The Yankees should focus on making the Yankees strong not weakening the Sox.
Outfielders can be had easily, from within and from without. Catchers and Pitchers are premium positions. I wouldnt trade an elite prospect at a premium position for an outfielder. Period.
Regular outfielders can be had from within and without but superstars don’t become available everyday and when someone has the endless talent Jupton does you have to go all in on getting him, now with that said I am not down with trading Montero for him I am fine starting with Gardner and adding 2 of the 3 “killer B’s” but I don’t want to deal Jesus for an outfielder even one of Jupton’s talents for the fear Montero sticks at catcher and becomes Piazza.
Why would the Yankees trade their starting catcher for an outfielder?
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Because he’s a really, really good outfielder.
Also because he has the athletic ability to play all 3 outfield positions and he has the bat of an everyday DH at the age of 23!
I think some people need to go turn on some tape or google Justin Upton videos or something and see how good this kid really is, if you get a kid that good and that young around our Vets you could have an all star candidate for the next 5-10 years.
And isnt it a huge red flag that the D-Backs are so motivated to move him?
Really it sounds as if they are only “motivated to move him” if they bring in a haul of 5 players at least 3 of which should be close to MLB ready.
Also this is the only way the Dbacks are going to get better, no one on their team has the same level of trade value as Justin and they don’t have any starting pitching with ace upside.
Doing my calculations, I have Upton being worth a surplus of at least 100mil in a trade. Or the equivalent of 2 top 10 hitting prospects, plus 2 top 10 pitching prospects.
So like, Montero+Banuelos+Betances+Gardner+Noesi whatever.
Would anyone do that? Upton could be intriguing because he is just 23, could put up HOF worthy seasons for us for a long time (under his market value no less). I know OF doesn’t seem like a need, but Swisher will be gone in the next couple years with no replacement in sight from the system. Upton will outproduce Swisher without being paid more over the next 2 years, plus it’ll keep the Yankees from possibly signing Swisher long-term, which isn’t a good idea.
But it’ll cost the farm. Is it worth it?
I really doubt the Yankees would trade Gardner and Jesus and 2 of the 3 B’s to me the Diamondbacks would be able to get Gardner and then either Montero or 2 of the 3 B’s and I could live with those and then of course you add in 2 more regular B prospects.I
Excuse me, but doesn’t the Juan Miranda deal obviate the need for a first baseman? Therefore, I think scenario #2 works best, although I hate to give up Gardy…Alternative #4 Joba, Noesi, Adams, Phelps, Banuelos, Laird/Romine?
….meant to add Nova in there too
No, Miranda was traded because he has no spot…. Teixeira has the first base starting spot on lock for years and Swisher is the backup to that position and Brandon Laird can play 1st if we need a 3rd guy for depth. Montero has some chance to play 1st but not much, he should be a DH, C or maybe RF.
I really don’t see how “alternative 4″ is an alternative, you want to trade a middle reliever, 3 starting pitcher who profile at the end of the rotation, a backup 3rd baseman and utility bench guy along with the smallest of the 3 big pitchers.
There is not enough upside in that trade at most Banuelos is the only one with a high ceiling and he could end up in the pen if his body doesn’t hold up.
I doubt that Miranda would serve as an impediment vs. Montero.
….meant to add Nova in there too
Anyone who is gung-ho to empty our pitching-heavy farm system, jettison arguably the best hitting prospect in all the minor leagues, and throw in a 5 WAR elite defensive outfielder on top just for the chance to roll the dice on a guy who put up a 111 OPS+ with 150+ strikeouts last season is no friend of the Yankee franchise.
First of all Justin is far from a roll of the dice, Lance Berkman was a roll of the dice Justin would be buying low on amazing talent and he hit poorly on a poor team and struck while around a team who set the all time record in that stat not that hard to figure out. With a winning organization, great hitting coach and positive hitting role models to help keep his discipline on the field should produce great results.
With all that said I don’t think 1 person here is “gung-ho” on shipping out the big 3, Gardner and Montero in fact most have been trying to find a way to leave Montero out of the deal but you have to give up talent for talent and if you have to give up two kids in double A, a 5th starter in a rotation or two for an all star potential HOF like talent you can take that risk that both Banuelos and Betances make it.
Most Yankee fans are simply hoping 1 of the “big 3″ actually make it as a starter if we trade the right 2 we may end up with a top starter, star catcher and a star outfielders.
I really don’t understand, outside of fantasy baseball, why a GM that has a very good (maybe the best in MLB) outfield gut his farm system for a young corner outfielder. Especially one that has high K rates, that could be a harbinger of a short career. The Yankees are finally building talent in the two hardest to develop areas, catching and starting pitcher. Wouldn’t it be wise to see what happens to these players in the next couple of years rather than having to face them down in future playoffs? Corner outfielders can always be bought, and Upton is not the second coming of Ruth.
How about some discipline? You know, the kind that bloggers rave about when it’s Theo and then are pissed when Cashman has no farm system….
You would be the only person I’ve ever seen say Justin is in for a short career and just as easily as you can say patience because our prospects could become all stars but part of baseball is trading guys who might be good for someone you know is great.
If you could do this deal hypothetically where we get Justin in return for Brackman, Banuelos, Nova, Robertson and Gardner and you pass because of the “damage it would do to the system” and Banuelos ends up in the pen, Brackman busts out, Nova never becomes more than a 4 and Robertson never gets better worse than he is right now as the Dbacks setup man what have you lost? 20 stolen bases a year and add 25 HRs a year.
Yes those guys could be great but they are just as likely or more so to bust and never be anything we are talking about pitchers in double, triple A and the bullpen.
I don’t see NYY interested in a deal like this. They will potentially need these chips to trade for starting pitching if both Pettitte and Lee sign and will absolutely need to improve the bullpen even if Mo signs. Besides, Upton’s strikeout numbers and decline this year (combined with his brother’s history) send up too many red flags for me. Pass!!!
I definitely understand the high value for Upton. However, the Yankees can’t include Jesus Montero in a deal for Upton when he’s likely right about to make his debut. With Cashman on record saying Posada will mainly DH in 2011, who do you see catching for the Yankees if not Montero? If I had to pick between a very good catcher and a very good outfielder, I’d definitely choose the catcher. It’s a more valuable position.
I think the Catcher would be Jorge and Cervelli, just like last year.
The whole thing of announcing Montero being in the mix struck me as odd, just go to ST and let him force your hand if he has a monster spring. But now we learn there was a Jeter angle to it (via Joel Sherman) and I still suspect they want to sell him as a Catcher if the right deal comes along.
The right deal for who Steve S?? Another catcher that has the power to hit 40HR and hit a .300AVG
This trade just doesnt make sense for the Yankees. You are giving up way too much of your major league team for minor improvements (WAR) in your outfield. Yeah you can say that Upton is much better talent than Brett Gardner, which is true, but when comparing WAR he is actually a downgrade from Gardner based on this years performance from Gardner. I don’t base everything on WAR anyway, but almost everyone on the web now a days has jumped on its band wagon and use it as one of the go to stats. Now adding Gardner, who is on a super cheap deal for the Yankees and one of the places that they actually get positive return in value money wise, plus 3 more prospects to decrease the WAR of your outfield just doesn’t make any sense.
If I’m Cashman, I’m in no rush to unload my farm and 2-3 pieces of my major league team for a guy who is a great name and has a lot of hype/potential around, but will actually make my big league team worse for the upcoming years.
I’d hate to trade with someone who know the inside and out of the prospects in the organization.He’s more likely to make himself a good deal than a bad one.
You can’t send him a prospect who might look good but you don’t like long term because he knows it too.
Trade with somebody else, that’s not the only good player in baseball and is he a YANKEE winner type and not just a talent.
I cant tell if this article is serious or a joke…. You are going to trade away a top 3 prospect in a position the yankees really need for just Justin Upton…. If they wanted to make a deal for an outfielder which they don’t they would go for Carl Crawford. Who the yankees can buy instead of giving up prospects. Yes Upton has potential but you don’t trade away a hitting catcher like Montero who almost all scouts say he has the ability to hit 30-40 HR and a 300 AVG. The only people that the Yankees will even think about trading this guy for is a 1A type player (Cliff Lee). Whoever the writer of this article is must have a huge thing for Upton because wanting to dump the whole farm system for this guy is absolutely ridiculous. This is one of the more stupid articles i have read in a long time…