Because of the on going Derek Jeter negotiations (they show up in every article, huh?), I’ve been thinking a lot about the last player the Yankees took a hard stand on: Bernie Williams. Like Jeter, he was an icon of the team. He’d spent his whole career with the Yankees, winning four World Series titles, as well as winning a batting title in 1998. He also led the league in intentional walks in 1999, which just goes to show you how “feared” a batter Bernie was (that one’s for you, TSJC & Jim Rice)
When perusing Bernie’s stats, we realize that he was a pretty damn good hitter. He had a .371 wOBA out of centerfield to go along with a 125 OPS+. He averaged 3.9 bWAR per 162 games as well. This got me pondering the idea of Bernie having a Hall of Fame chance when his time comes in a year? My gut reaction was always no. But, since I’ve got an at least partially analytical mind, I decided to jump into the numbers and compare Bernie to the 17 HOF centerfielders to see if Bernie has a shot.
I compared the players using three basic categories (the ones listed above): OPS+, wOBA, and bWAR/162 games.
The leaders:
OPS+: Mickey Mantle at 172
wOBA: Ty Cobb at .451
bWAR/162: Ty Cobb and Willie Mays tied at 8.5
The Trailers:
OPS+: Lloyd Waner at 99
wOBA: Lloyd Waner at .347
WAR/162: Lloyd Waner at 2.4
The Median*:
OPS+: Edd Roush at 127
wOBA: Hugh Duffy at .398
bWAR/162: Billy Hamilton at 6.4
* Not including Bernie Williams
So, Bernie’s somewhere in the middle of the “worst” HOF CF (Lloyd Waner) and the median HOF CF, represented by the Roush, Duffy, and Hamilton trio. It’s worth noting that Duffy and Hamilton were essentially pre-modern players, though. Their careers ended in 1906 and 1901 respectively. That gives us a grain of salt to take with their defensive/WAR numbers.
There are just two players of the 17 that Bernie beats in all three categories: Waner and Max Carey, both of whom were Veterans’ Committee selections into Cooperstown.
Williams also beat Richie Ashburn in OPS+ (111) and wOBA (.364), while falling short of him in bWAR/162 (4.4).
The closest modern comparison we have to Bernie is Kirby Puckett. Like Ashburn, Bernie beat Kirby in OPS+ (124) and wOBA (.365). Also like Ashburn, Kirby beat Bernie in bWAR/162 (4.2).
Bernie also matched Earle Combs’ 125 OPS+ mark.
At the end of this brief study, my initial thought was confirmed. Bernie Williams is not deserving of induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. What hurt Bernie’s case? First off, there was his defense. While Bernie won Gold Gloves, no one took them very seriously when it came to Mr. Williams. His defensive reputation was less than sterling and the numbers for bWAR back that up; they peg him as a -12.0 defender over the course of his career. More damning, though, was the last four year period of Bernie’s career. From 1991-2002, Bernie was an offensive machine in CF, posting an .890 OPS (133 OPS+) during that time frame. Had he kept that up, I think Bernie would have a slightly stronger case for Cooperstown. From 2003-2006, though, things dropped off big time. In that span, Bernie was essentially an average hitter. His OPS+ was exactly 100, the product of a .758 raw OPS. Two things come to mind here.
1. Bernie’s “decline” phase saw him hit at a league average level. That should remind us of how good a hitter he really was. How many guys have a decline phase that seems them drop to “only” an average hitter?
2. If that’s the case, why don’t his numbers look better? An .890 OPS over 12 seasons is nothing to sneeze at. However, it would appear that it wasn’t quite “good enough” to buoy an average four year span up enough to make Bernie into a Hall of Fame player.
This is the first time during the Case for Cooperstown Series that I’ve decided a player SHOULD NOT get int the HOF. It’s too bad that player had to be Bernie, especially since he was always the one whose batting stance I imitated during Whiffle Ball games. But, in analyzing baseball, we can’t afford to be sentimental. I’m sorry, Bernie, it’s nothing personal…only business.
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16 Responses to The Case for Cooperstown: Bernie Williams
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TIQ IQ
Not sure why Bernie’s not a HoFer if that stats have him hanging in that group, even if its in the lower half. There is no rule that says the induction of each HoF must raise the bar for those that follow.
I agree with misterd-Bernie’s numbers are better than some guys that are already in. You may see the standard as being too low, but it’s already the standard unless we start kicking guys like Ashburn out.
Speaking of Ashburn, before he became a hack, Bill James did a bit of an investigation into his range factors, and while he could find nothing definitive, he noted that with flyball pitchers like Robin Roberts on the team a lot of RA’s years, they may have been artificially inflated.
It’s possible that applies to some other players (like Puckett).
If I was starting a team and had to choose between Waner, Ashburn, Combs, Puckett, Bernie, Roush, Duffy, and Hamilton, I’m taking Bernie. If you’re as good as (or in this case better than) that many guys already in, you deserve to be in.
Of course you would take Bernie because you saw him play more than any of the others and you will always take the guys you know over those you either A. Never saw play or B. Have only seen old tape of them.
No just because you have numbers better than some of the worst guys at your position in the HOF from a different era doesn’t mean you belong.
The Hall of Fame is about more than your numbers compared to history oit’s your numbers compared to your era…. just because player X was better than any hitter in 1901 doesn’t make him a hall of famer if he was just one of the better guys in 2010.
If he was even remotely decent with the glove he probably would have been a HOF’er.
He was much better than ‘remotely decent’ with the glove.
I think the vast majority of the “bernie could never field” club either only saw him play the last few years of his career (which were brutal in the field) or only remember those days but even with that being said Bernie wasn’t the best in field and probably never deserved those gold gloves.
Eh, I strongly disagree.
Eye test- he does not pass
Stat test- he gets an F
It’s a shame too because he could hit. Despite miserable defense, from 1995-2002 he played at an MVP level just about every season.
Adding to your point Disco Bernie’s “prime” was from 1995-2000 and even then I could probably only justify 1 maybe 2 of those years as MVP type years, Bernie was a great hitter and decent fielder at one of the most important positions in sports but neither was quite enough for him to be HOF.
Bernie is in the hall of Very Good just like Pettitte and Posada but none of those 3 deserve the Hall of Fame…
What you are forgetting Misterd and oldpep is that when dealing with someone getting into the hall of fame it’s not just comparing their numbers to people already in the hall you have to look and see if when they played they were one of the top “best of the best” players in their era.
A lot of times we get caught up comparing some guy from the 30′s to some guy from the 80′s and contrast him against the 2000′s guy but in reality even if the guy from the 30′s is worse than the other 2 he is still a HOFer if he was better than everyone else he played with.
Bernie simply wasn’t a guy I ever watched play and thought…. WOW there goes a hall of fame player, he never seemed like the best CF or OF of his time even though he was near the top, he was never dominant enough to be in the hall. He was a very good player on some very good teams.
I still think Posada should get in. He’s been the best offensive catcher in the game for the last 15 years w/o the last name “Piazza.” Dude’s deserving!
Do a write up on it… about 3 years ago I had a big debate on the subject and at the time I said Posada could end up with numbers putting him in the general area of other hall of fame catchers but his defense and ability or lack thereof when calling a game really hurts his overall bid.
If we assume the most important thing about a catcher is defense and game calling (and it is) then a catcher with a good bat is nothing more than a plus, to be a offensive first catcher making it to the HOF you really do have to have Piazza numbers and Posada falls short of those marks.
Piazza finished with 427 HRs Posafa will probably end his career short of 300
Piazza career line .308/.377/.545/.922
Unfortunately for Posada he played roughly in the same times as Mike Piazza so he will have to be compared to the greatest of all time so that will hurt his chances, however he also played his entire career in the steroid era without being mentioned once which will help his overall claim but the question is are Jorge’s numbers good enough for this offensive first catcher to get it? I say no because any offensive first catcher with poor career D needs to have Piazza like numbers to get in, let’s see how they compare.
261 HR, 1021 RBI .275/.377/.479/.856… wOBA .369 Career WAR 51.9
427 HR, 1335 RBI .308/.377/.545/.922… wOBA .389 Career WAR 68.2
Just to be clear TO, while Bernie was my favorite player on those teams, I’ve never seen him as a HoFer. I just don’t think the article made a clear and convincing argument.
I think there’s a much better case for Bernie having his number retired as a Yankee, since he’s at or near the top of franchise lists in many offensive categories. Maybe you can do a follow up piece to see if I’m right about that. I would, but I have 3 in the can and little time to finish them. I’ve been sitting on a Larry Rothschild profile for about 2 weeks.
Bernie was not a HOF’er. Next case.
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