Yesterday, I kicked around a trade scenario between the Yanks and Giants if the Yanks fail to land Cliff Lee. Bill Madden of the NY Daily News throws out another alternative, one where the Yanks go with some of their highly-touted internal options if Lee opts to stay in Texas. He writes:
Cashman’s vision of a mostly homegrown rotation remains the same – and is, in fact, “Plan B” if his pursuit of Lee goes for naught. Only the principals have changed. Brackman, the 6-10, 2007 first-round draft pick out of North Carolina St., whose progress was retarded by Tommy John surgery in 2008, came on strong the second half of this past season after being promoted to Double-A Trenton. Betances, the 6-8 Brooklyn product selected in the eighth round of the 2006 draft, has been making steady progress with 108 strikeouts and 22 walks in 85.1 combined innings at Class-A Tampa and Trenton. This season those two were joined by a new prodigy, 19-year-old Mexican lefty Manuel Banuelos, who had 70 strikeouts and 31 walks in 59 innings at Tampa and Trenton. All three possess “plus” fastballs, breaking pitches and changeups and appear to be on the fast track. And, according to Yankee operatives, the hope is that one or more of them could land in the big league rotation at some point next season. Scouts I’ve talked to are unanimous in their praise for the “Three B’s,” citing Betances’ “outstanding breaking ball,” Brackman’s “power cut fastball, which he never throws straight,” and Banuelos’ way-above changeup.” Just the same, the failure of Cashman’s homegrown-arms plan to bear quick fruit has resulted in the necessity to chase Lee and likely invest another $100-plus million in an over-30 pitcher, meaning that, beginning next year, the Yankees could be on the hook for nearly $200 million in three starting pitchers through 2013 alone.
With all three spending time in AA Trenton last year, it’s not at all far fetched to put them in the 25 man roster mix for sometime next year. One could easily envision a late season call up for Banuelos if the Yanks are in need of a lefty in the bullpen, and if Betances continues the progress in terms of control that he made since the second half of 2008, then as BA recently said “he’ll be a frontline starter for New York”. Brackman may be the most likely of all to get a look-see, if for no other reason the clock is ticking on his team control.
Lee is obviously their 1st choice, obtaining him for nothing but cash and draft picks means they keep all their top prospects and have oodles of depth for the long regular season in 2011. But I believe the Yanks when, as Buster Olney said yesterday, they say have “a very finite view” of what they’ll offer Lee. Looking down the road a bit, if we assume a minimum 3 year/20-ish deal for Jeter and a 20+ annual deal for Lee, in 2013 you could have a whopping 110 million tied up in just 5 players in Jeter (39) Lee (35) A-Rod (37) Tex (33) and Burnett (36) all of whom will be past their prime years. Throw in CC’s 22.5 mil, a big extension for Robbie Cano (18-20 per) and a big 3rd year arb raise for Phil Hughes (10+) you’re easily north of 160 mil with 17 roster spots left to fill. That’s a very inefficient use of payroll space. Considering that you have to assume declining production at some of those ages, that could give the Yanks the kind of roster inflexibility that plagued them from 04-08. There’s also a new collective bargaining agreement to be negotiated with the MLBPA, and every recent CBA has contained some bad news for the Yanks. Unless they plan on raising their payroll ceiling substantially (something Hal Stienbrenner has been very reluctant to do) to around 250 mil or get Jeter to agree to a 2 year deal, the payroll picture is very ugly for 2013. They’ll need some big production out of some cheap young players that year, or risk being an injury away from missing the playoffs. It’s easy to say ‘worry about this stuff then’ but which one of these players is likely to be elsewhere? None, not even the unproductive AJ Burnett. Back loading a Lee deal could help, but that just means he’s earning the most money in his least productive years and creates similar problems in the out years of his deal.
While I agree that it’s possible the Yanks will go with the kids, I have to think this represents Plan C or D for them. It’s always smart to enter the off season taking the “We’re happy where we are” stance for negotiating purposes, you don’t want to look desperate if Lee decides he’s happy in Texas. But a finished product will always be more attractive to a team like the Yanks than a young pitcher who you have to expect some growing pains with, so I have to think they’ll pursue the trade route all winter before settling on the ‘Killer Bs’ as their Plan B for 2011. However, they’ll need some of these guys to be productive for them going forward, so look for them to make their MLB debuts in the near future.
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18 Responses to Madden: Plan B is the Killer B's
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TIQ IQ
I’d love to see Brackman up in the bigs after the all-star break. He’s easily the closest one of the three in terms of ML readiness. Simply on health, Brax represents a better bet than Betances to help solve the looming hole at the 5 spot; an issue the Yanks face with or without Lee’s services.
I’d just like to see a healthy 130 inning season from Betances in AA next season. Is he physically capable of that feat? No other guy in the farm has got that kind of swing-and-miss stuff, but i’m going to start defending the “put-him-in-the-pen” talk if we get another sub-100 inning season.
From what I understand it was all about the elbow, which was long suspected that it would go at some point. Other than that, I’m unaware of any major red flags about him. People forget he threw 121 in 08, and the reason his innings were down the past two seasons was he missed parts of both due to the elbow surgery. He came back quicker and more effective than anyone expected, he’s bulked up nicely and reports on his work ethic have been glowing. Seems like there’s a lot to like there.
Brackman had the TJ and nobody seems to be worried about him, but Dellin has the ‘injury prone’ tag attached to him for what was actually a less severe injury.
This sounds very familiar :)
SAVE THE BIG THREE!
I know it wasn’t the ideal scenario, but anyone who was slightly realistic about the big 3s chances understood that maybe one of the three would work out. I’m not suggesting this was the best case, but your probably looking at a similar scenario with these 3. Banuelos is the most likely to succeed as a starter with brackman an erratic starter\reliever and betances injured, or some variation. Just some thoughts, but I’m enjoying having high end prospects to discuss
Isn’t it nice to have someone exciting to talk about other than Montero?
Brandon Laird will break camp as the starting left fielder for the Yankess this upcomming spring…
True, its really fun, and looking at the far system further, there’s going to be more depth to explore in the next 3 years. The yanks have an interesting set up, the offense to get to the playoffs, but not necessarily the pitching to dominate. Your 5th starters never see a start in the playoffs anyway, but how necessary is a league average 5th starter in the regular season. It seems like the team would benefit from rethinking the 5th spot as a development position each season. For the payroll savings, and the ability to sign only the sabathias and lees of the world. Not the burnetts, kurodas, etc.
Agree completely Joe. Well said.
Would you trade Brackman, Betances, Nunez and Banuelos for marlins Josh Johnson? I would because each of the killer B’s value is at all time high. all has question marks on injury. I feel marlins would take that trade.
All three is a bit much. I don’t care at all for Nunez, so he isn’t an obstacle.
All 3 is pretty high asking price because if 1 turns into an ace and the other 2 are halfway decent you’ll be on one of those lopp sided trade shows.
All 3 have a decent chance to make it as starters they all posses a plus fastball and at least one above average offspeed offering there is some concern over injury but I think it’s over hyped regarding Betances and Brackman, they both had injuries we pretty much knew going in they were going to have to deal with and we did.
I think Banuelos is the safest bet with Betances having the highest upside and Brackman being the most unpredictable, I could see all three ending up in the pen and I can see all three ending up in the rotation and most likely at least 1 will stick
What is Banuelos injury concern BTW? I don’t remember him having a baseball injury.
The only concern that I can think of is lack of innings.
Plan B? Ok. Brackman, Betances, Banuelos, Noesi, Nova, Warren, and more…
The Yankees can compete next year with most of the team they have now. They’ll
need a 5th/6th starter to be sure, but they have much in that line in the minors. If they
don’t sign Lee, sign a hitter, use the minors as your pitching depth. With many good young
arms, no need for (Joba rules) just use them as needed, allow the cream to rise, and be sure of
potential *stars* in 2012.
I think Kei Igawa should be plan B.
(just kidding)
Didn’t his contract finally just expire?
This is cause for celebration. A party of some sort should be thrown to honor this occasion.
Plan B? I would be very interested in seeing them try to get Gio Gonzales from Oakland. I think he would be an ace in YS.