As I’m sure you know by now, the Yanks and Red Sox were both reported to have inquired on the availability of Diamondbacks star CF Justin Upton. I wonder where the other 28 teams were, if this rumor is at all serious. It may be nothing, all players are available on some level and Kevin Towers has been known to talk a bit when you stick a microphone under his nose. But with the D-Backs in full rebuild mode it’s something you have to at least take a look at. Good buddy Mike Silva of NYBD has some details (via Ken Rosenthal) on what a potential deal might look like:
Reports indicate the asking price for Upton will be an outfielder, a reliever and a starting pitcher. The Yankees have those pieces to spare as they could offer Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, and a pitcher of the Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, or Andrew Brackman ilk.
I’m not sure that’s enough, but Mike makes an excellent point when he goes on to say that the Yanks would have an inside track in dealing with Towers. He’s long been friends with Brian Cashman and just finished a brief stint as a consultant for the team, so he’s very familiar with the Yankee system. I’d have to think he would insist on one of the other killer B’s in Betances or Banuelos for a young star like Justin. Of course any of your outfielders are expendable if you acquire a CF, but given that the D-Backs have long had financial issues and they just held a fire sale last year, the young, cheap Gardner sounds like a good fit over more expensive alternatives in Swisher or Granderson.
In a recent post on Fangraphs Dave Cameron broke down his residual value, and even with modest performance expectations it’s still huge:
Good Player, Not A Superstar
2011 – +3.5 WAR, $17.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +4.0 WAR, $20.8 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +4.5 WAR, $24.8 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +4.5 WAR, $25.7 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +5.0 WAR, $30.0 million value, $14.5 million salary
Total: +21.5 WAR, $118.7 million value, $49.5 million salary
That puts Upton at about $70 million in surplus value over what his contract will pay him between 2011 and 2015.
Upton Becomes Elite
2011 – +4.5 WAR, $22.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +5.0 WAR, $26.0 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +5.5 WAR, $30.25 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +6.0 WAR, $34.25 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +6.5 WAR, $39.0 million value, $14.5 million salary
Total: +27.5 WAR, $152.0 million value, $49.5 million salary
This is where making a deal becomes daunting. In either scenario there’s an enormous amount of value to make up for. Brett Gardner gives you some of it, but the reliever would need to be someone less speculative than Joba, and the starter prospect would have to be a no brainer. Many think that Manny Banuelos will wind up in the bullpen given his small stature, and Betances is considered to be a high-upside/big downside wild card with some injury history. Ivan Nova has a lower ceiling but higher floor, and could be plugged into a MLB rotation from the beginning of next year. Not sure if Towers will want to roll the dice on Dellin or take a safer bet in Nova. As we saw last year with Ian Kennedy, you don’t need a huge upside to compete and succeed in the NL West. I wouldn’t completely rule out Joba as well. Towers may think (as many do) that the Yanks have totally screwed up his development, and may view him as a starter with some big upside. But that makes him something of a throw-in for a deal, where he takes Joba over some AA pitcher as a final piece. The Yanks may want to hold onto him in that scenario.
All totaled I think a possible deal would be Brett Gardner, Dave Robertson, Ivan Nova and another arm that could go either way (bullpen/rotation) with some upside in Stoneburner, Warren or Joba. What do you think? Would you make that deal? Or do you think the Yanks would be better off keeping their depth and standing pat?
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31 Responses to Kicking the tires on Justin Upton
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TIQ IQ
I would love to do that deal.
I’d make that deal as quickly as possible, before Towers comes to his senses
I love it but il won’t trade Nova
How is Nova a deal breaker for anyone let alone Justin Upton? At best he will never be more than a hard sinker baller at the back of the rotation.
I would trade just about anyone in the system for Upton. I’d be surprised if arizona didn’t even ask for montero. Only guy I’d be hesitant on dealing is banuelos, but you have to give somethng to get something as they say. And Upton has superstar potential.
That deal would never, ever happen. You absolutely are not giving up enough star power/upside. There isnt a future potential All-Star in the bunch. I think to get him, the package needs to include Montero, or Hughes, or 2 of the killer B’s. Or some combo of those things. This is a young slugging star with huge upside signed to a good deal. I’d say there are not 10 more valuable commodities in the sport.
I’m sorry, but your proposal makes no sense. AZ is cash strapped and Hughes is entering his arb years, so his net value over the next 3 years could be less than Nova’s over the next 6. Whether you think Montero is a catcher or 1B, either way he’s not a fit for the D-Backs with Miguel Montero and LaRoche.
I never said I wouldn’t trade a killer B, just I’m not sure any of them make sense from Towers perspective. They’re all lottery tickets, and he may want more certainty.
But you arent giving up any upside.
And as for Hughes v. Nova, it isnt only about surplus value. Hughes is a much better bet to give more total actual value due to his better upside.
And I believe LaRoche is a free agent, so Montero fits fine. The point is, if Montero, Hughes, or the B’s are not a fit, then there is no match here.
LaRoche had an option and the D-backs turned it down, so yes he is a free agent now
I outlined my trade yesterday when asking for this thread but just in case anyone didn’t see it who might care i’ll re-lay it out.
I would start with Brett Gardner since he has a high value and low price tage right now, 1 of Towers choice of the Killer B’s, 1 of his choice of the catchers in the system not named Montero, his choice of any starter in the system that isn’t 1 of the 2 remainings “B’s” and his choice of either Eduardo Nunez or David Robertson.
This trade is a 5-1 trade so I would like the Backs to send a reliever or something back like Atlanta did with Logan but at the end of the day if we have to get rid of of 5 guys for someone with his skill level who is only 23 I’ll do it.
I agree. Not a chance.
Even in a perfect world for Yankee fans we’re looking at Gardner, Joba, Romine, a Killer B and someone else – at the very least. I have no problem at all with this package which means its probably not enough either.
At this point I don’t think Montero would be a deal breaker, maybe they would demand him but to me trades are all about what a GM can say he has now for what he gave up and being able to tell your fans you have a starting CFer(Gardner), catching depth(Romine/Murphy/Sanchez), a possible future ace(1 killer B), an MLB ready arm (a Nova type) and possibly a starting SS(Nunez) or CP(Robertson) is a haul.
I might be willing to give up 2 “killer B’s” if they didn’t want a catcher but at that point I would give them Betances/Brackman, Banuelos, Gardner, Nunez and Robertson
ABSOLUTELY you do anything it takes for a once in a generation talent. This kid has accomplished at age 23 what star veterans haven’t. Even if he doesn’t improve, a .275 avg, 25 hr, 90 rbi, 20 sb guy is great…and if he becomes what he should you’re looking at an MVP. I don’t see why right now hes not as good as Jason werth..while being payed half what Werth will get. You DO WHAT YOU GOTTA DO to get this guy.
I agree with Max here,
Are you guys Kidding me?
This kid is a stud! A talent like this comes along once every 20 years or so.
Hes not just the prototypical toolsy outfielder. He is a bona-fide star!
He would easily be the best Center Fielder (assuming grandy moves over) since Rickey Henderson (sorry Bernie)
If They ask for the farm , you give them the farm! Prospects = Suspects and if you think a Joba centric package gets it done than you obviously are wearing your pinstriped colored glasses.
If they ask for 2 of the “killer Bees” and Hughes. You do it.
I love hughes and his gaudy win total but a league avg pitcher with a 9+ run support also woulda won around 20 games.
Im Hoping cashman can figure this one out .
My trade would be:
Gardner
Banuelos
Chamberlain
Nova
On another forum I was seriously considering Gardner (my fav current Yank, so this hurts), Joba (but DRob would do), a not-Montero catching prospect (we’ve got bunches), and a pitcher or two (depending on the catcher and the specific pitcher). I would hesitate giving up any more, and I’m sure other teams (like the Royals) would have the ability to put together a better package, but I’m not sure how many of them are looking to add payroll.
If the Uggla trade can be used as an example, it seems like some small market teams are concerned about the payroll issue and are willing to take less just to get rid of the player.
Uggla is a rental for the Braves unless they re-sign him, Justin on the other hand is under team control for like another 4 years and cheap at that.
In 2 years, I think Justin’s contract sky rockets in a couple years to the 9-14mil dollar range. Far from cheap but he would probably still be worth it. With the Yankees and all the money they have invested in older players, the Yankees need to get some value back with cheaper players like Gardner.
9-14 is a lot to you and me but for a 28 year old centerfielder who can continually hit 30+ HRs and steal 20+ stolen bases it’s probably going to be underpaying him when they day comes, hopefully at that point our economy will be much better and guys like Jeter, Posada and Mariano will be gone.
I think you understand how good Upton is right now but what I think you are failing to consider is that he is only 23 and at the age of 22 was able to put up a year that would be a career for most folks, Jupton is a rarity both as an athlete and with the bat and while we don’t “need” him he makes us a better team for 5 more years with the option to re-sign him for another 4-5 years.
When I first heard that Upton was on the market, I thought it would take a huge bounty to land him… then I read this quote on MLB trade rumors. Of course i know that trusting random ghost quotes is stupid, but it’s one-sidedness reminds me of the uggla deal.
“An exec speculated that Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done, notes Sherman.”
Anyway, I’m not as gung-ho about dealing for Upton as everyone else is. I think he is a good-great player but not the once in a generation talent that some people are making him out to be. Would I like him on our team, of course, do I think we need him… not really. Plus, I kind of like the return on value that we get from Gardner and I’m concerned about where the Yankee payroll will be when Upton’s annual salary starts to increase. Let’s take care of Lee first then worry about dealing for wants at this point.
How can you not think Upton’s talent is rare? The guy has the ability to hit for average, power, steal bases, play defense and do it all at an all-star level and the kid is only 23 he may not have put it all together yet but just the abilities he has are once in a generation.
Gardner proved himself a starter for sure this year and I’m not one of those Gardner had a “career year” people either but there is no way Gardner can provide the same value as Upton because he simply doesn’t have the tools to do so. If Justin plays CF for us he automatically becomes one of the top five centerfielders in the league.
With the contract people act like he is arbitration eligible next year or something when just last year he signed a 6 year 50 million dollar deal which is 8 million a year so his 4 million this year isn’t going to be raised by that much all at once it will be over the course of the next 5 years and 46 million is actually a good price for a guy like that over 5 years at age 23.
I guess he can turn out to be that good of a player, maybe I am undervaluing him a bit. Question though… was the same thing said about BJ Upton?
Upton’s contract starts to increase to the 10 mil range in 2 years and then 14 mil a year for the following 2 years, so his contract get expensive pretty quickly.
4.25 in 2011
6.75 in 2012
9.75 2012
14.25 in 2014
14.5 in 2014
No the same was not said about BJ, he has always been the faster more athletic of the 2 but no one thought BJ had the power of Justin and he’s proving he doesn’t and he obviously doesn’t have the work ethic his brother does.
The main difference in Justin and BJ is that at a much younger age Justin has already had a .300, 26 and 20 season last year, he struggled a bit this year as a 23 year old but even then he showed the abilities he has to be a super star.
14 million in the last 2 years of a contract for a guy who will be 28/29 when the deal finishes is actually not that expensive at all for a CFer who can hit 30 and steal 20… hell Granderson makes 8-9 mill next year and he doesn’t have anywhere near the potential of Upton and he’s a similar age to what Justin will be then.
Justin’s bat is special and if he stays a Dback for the rest of this deal I wouldn’t be surprised to then see The Yankees sign the 28/29 year old Upton to a contract as big or bigger than 14 million but they wouldn’t get the cheaper production years out of him
I’d do that deal in a heartbeat. I have no idea how much it’ll cost considering the crap they took for Dan Haren and with Towers now being the GM. By the way… Upton is a RF.
Upton plays RF but only because Chris Young is in CF, Justin himself has said he can play CF and that he would like to play CF but that with Young on the team he has to play RF.
I completely believe that he can play CF in because he is athletic beyond words and has shwon some good flove play at times and at the very worst he would be our leftfielder and one who could end up slugging 30 and stealing 20.
Still doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t played centerfield in 4 years.
That changes everything because a leftfielder who can hit 30+ and steal 20+ is useless to me.
In all seriousness though you give him the chance to play CF and if he can’t play it as well as Granderson then you still have one of the best CFers in the game and Jupton moves to LF and his range and athleticism turns him into a stable in LF for the next 5+ years.
However I will not say he can’t play CF just because he hasn’t done it since triple A or whatever, he’s too much of an athlete and too competitive for me to say he can’t do it. Maybe Granderson can do it better but given a year to learn the position I don’t see any reason he can’t develop into a sound defensive centerfielder.
Has upton even played a single inning of mlb at cf?
Thanks for pointing that out, I was thinking of his brother.
Let’s not mistake him being in RF as an indictment of his defense I think he could play well at both center, he has the athleticism to take to any position (he did play a little SS in the minors) and left and he has a gun of an arm.
Think of the lineups that could be put together with Upton play
VS LHP
Jeter
Swisher
Tex
Arod
Cano
Upton
Posada
Montero
Granderson
VS RHP
Jeter
Granderson
Tex
Arod
Cano
Upton
Swisher
Posada
Montero
In those lineups everyone but Jeter and Posada could 3-5 and we wouldn’t miss a beat on any given night, we lose some speed trading Gardner but Upton and Granderson together should be worth 40-50 stolen bases a year and Upton adds 25-35 HRs to the lineup a year, power isn’t everything but a combonation like that is deadly.