How Lee's Deal Will Impact CC Sabathia
CC Sabathia has been fairly excellent in his first two years as a Yankee. He has given the Yankees 467 innings of 3.27 ERA ball, and carried their rotation in the 2009 postseason. It is hard to be disappointed with his performance thus far. As such, most Yankees fans are hoping that he does not opt out of his contract after the 2011 season, as is his right. He has said on a number of occasions that he loves it in New York and will refrain from using his option, but we have heard that before from players such as Alex Rodriguez and AJ Burnett only to be surprised when they exercised their opt-outs. If CC has another good year in 2011, he may very well choose to re-enter the free agent fray, and the pending Cliff Lee deal may impact his decision.
CC’s status after 2011 is likely to be similar to that of Lee after 2010. CC will be a year younger than Lee is now, but he also has a lot more mileage on his arm and has been a bit worse that Lee over the last few seasons. As such, I would expect them to get fairly similar deals, such that the Lee deal could be an excellent template for CC and his agent to use to weigh whether it makes sense for the big left-hander to test the free agent waters.
Sabathia is due 23 million dollars a year from 2012-2015, meaning that he will have a 4 year deal worth 92 million dollars in hand when the 2011 season ends. If Cliff Lee does significantly better than that deal, and gets something along the lines of 5 years and 115 million dollars, CC might opt-out and sell himself as a younger version of Lee with a more extensive track record. However, if Lee does significantly worse than that number, I would expect CC to take the contract that he has in hand rather than risk the uncertainties of the free agent market. Complicating matters is that the Yankees may be the team that signs Lee, in which case they will have insurance against losing Sabathia. Jumping into a free agent market in which the Yankees are not a motivated player would be a dangerous move for Sabathia to make.
Ultimately, I think CC Sabathia will remain a Yankee for a long time. However, Cliff Lee’s new contract could muddy the waters and provide an impetus for CC to try and cash in one last time. Keep an eye on the value of that contract relative to CC’s existing deal, as it could provide a framework in which to evaluate Sabathia’s impending decision.
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From the Yankees’ perspective, there are some other complicating variables if CC opts out. A key one will be the progress of their younger pitchers, such as Hughes and the “killer Bs”. If Phil and one or more of the kids really steps up next year, they plus Lee might lead the Yankees to commit more fully to a youth movement on the mound. In that case, they could take a hard line with CC (as Cashman wanted to do with A-Rod, before the village idiot, otherwise known as Hank Steinbrenner, got involved and gave away the store). But if the young pitchers show they are not ready for prime time in 2011, then Sabathia gains leverage because the Yankees are still committed to “winning now” while their window of opportunity with the aging core appears open. (A complete age-related collapse in 2011, though, might alter that outlook.)
Miller and Morgan are no more!!!!!! Hip,hip, hooray!!!!!
One thing that the pundits forget when talking about how much ownership wants or is able spend. Money, as in how the US economy going to perform in the next 5-10 years. The world economy is a scarey place right now, and there are big questions to be answered as to what people are going to do with discretinary income. Already, some analysts are proclaiming that the days of the average American splurging on big ticket items are over, and maybe for many years. Maybe there will be no market frenzy for CC or anyone else for a few years. We live in “interesting times”….
Viewing a Cliff Lee signing as an insurance policy for the 1st spot of the rotation in case CC opts out after next season is one of those points that actually hasn’t been discussed to death. Good write-up Moshe!
Please, no way he opts out, no way, nobody will be able to afford to pay him more than that and nobody will want to.
I’m not sure about this. CC doesn’t strike me as the type who’s after every last dollar, his main concern with coming to the Yanks was uprooting his family from their west coast home. If he does this, he’s looking at doing that all over again. The opt out was included at Cashman’s suggestion, as a backup plan if he wasn’t happy here. All indications are that he is. I may be proven wrong, but I believe CC.
BTW-CC backing out would be good news for the Yanks Yes, they’d have to find another pitcher, but most of the risk for CCs deal were in the out years. To get ages 29-31 and have him walk wouldn’t be the worst thing that could happen.
Maybe he will opt-out just to get the Yankees to up his deal, never intending to leave. But yes, I could absolutely see him not opting out at all.
Really interesting point Steve. Still, CC’s pretty well paid after the opt-out. I’d have a hard time seeing him plausibly seeking a bigger contract. Even if Lee gets 22 million.