Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News
Every so often, old school fans and some SABR devotees agree on something. Recently, it’s been on the notion that Derek is simply coming off a bad year, and that he should in all likelihood bounce back nicely next year to something resembling his previous form. In some cases its just intellectual laziness based on little, in others it seems to be based on projection systems or recent attitudes of being dismissive of the effects of age. Here’s a few things to consider if you fall into either camp with Derek:
The indispensable Baseball Reference features a list of 10 batters who most resemble the player from a statistical standpoint. Here is Derek’s most similar batters:
- Roberto Alomar (869)
- Barry Larkin (824)
- Frankie Frisch (805) *
- Charlie Gehringer (799) *
- Lou Whitaker (787)
- Alan Trammell (786)
- Ryne Sandberg (782) *
- Ted Simmons (774)
- Joe Morgan (771) *
- Johnny Damon (765)
Peruse those links for a while. Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg were done as an elite players by age 33. Frisch and Trammell were done by age 35. Larkin, Gehringer, Whitaker were finished by age 36. After a few down seasons, Morgan had one big year at age 38 and was done. You could try to argue that Derek is by his nature an outlier as a HOF-quality talent, but so are most of the names on that list. It’s also interesting to note that Alomar, Larkin, Frisch, Gehringer, Trammel, Morgan and Simmons all had a dip in their production in their mid 30s, then one big year before being finished. Sound familiar?
Next, let’s look at Derek’s monthly splits, most notably April and September.
Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ April/March 21 21 99 94 14 31 4 1 4 18 3 1 3 8 .330 .354 .521 .875 49 2 1 0 1 0 1 .325 145 135 May 29 29 140 128 18 36 7 0 1 13 2 0 9 23 .281 .343 .359 .702 46 2 3 0 0 0 1 .337 98 93 June 25 25 118 103 18 25 5 0 3 8 3 2 15 18 .243 .339 .379 .718 39 4 0 0 0 1 0 .268 102 97 July 26 25 117 106 22 26 4 0 1 9 3 1 10 15 .245 .310 .311 .622 33 5 0 1 0 1 2 .278 75 71 August 29 28 132 117 20 28 4 2 1 11 4 0 12 20 .239 .318 .333 .652 39 6 2 0 1 0 2 .278 84 82 Sept/Oct 27 27 133 115 19 33 6 0 0 8 3 1 14 22 .287 .376 .339 .715 39 3 3 0 1 2 1 .351 102 105
The old saw about not believing numbers produced in April and September is generally used for rookies, but it applies to aging players as well. In April, many pitchers are still building up their arms and innings and as such don’t have their best fastballs. An aging player with a slowed bat can look great in April, and this was clearly Derek’s best month in 2010. In September, expanded rosters with AAA call ups water down the level of competition, which savvy vets like Derek can exploit. It’s also worth noting that Derek’s decent September was mostly the product of a season-high .376 OBP. So it appears he was mostly just using his eye (not his bat) to get on base.
Finally, Fangraphs Pitch type values
| Season | Team | wFB | wSL | wCT | wCB | wCH | wSF | wKN | wFB/C | wSL/C | wCT/C | wCB/C | wCH/C | wSF/C | wKN/C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total *
|
- – -
|
135.3
|
12.6
|
-0.4
|
10.0
|
18.5
|
4.3
|
-4.1
|
0.88
|
0.41
|
-0.06
|
0.59
|
1.12
|
1.67
|
-1.44
|
| 2002 | Yankees | 16.3 | -1.6 | 1.5 | -4.3 | 1.4 |
0.6
|
0.89 | -0.55 | 0.64 | -2.29 | 2.95 | 1.57 | ||
| 2003 | Yankees | 21.6 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.2 | 0.4 |
-0.4
|
1.55 | -0.64 | -0.64 | -0.92 | 1.83 | -1.17 | ||
| 2004 | Yankees | 1.6 | 9.5 | 0.0 | -2.6 | 9.5 | 0.4 |
-2.6
|
0.09 | 3.16 | 0.01 | -1.30 | 5.56 | 0.79 | -6.86 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 18.7 | 5.8 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
-1.8
|
0.98 | 1.46 | 4.58 | -0.86 | 2.12 | 2.26 | -2.97 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 19.1 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 0.7 |
1.6
|
1.07 | 1.94 | 1.34 | 1.51 | 4.22 | 3.27 | 4.67 |
| 2007 | Yankees | 17.8 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
-0.1
|
1.06 | 1.65 | -0.24 | 0.78 | 0.43 | 5.62 | -0.26 |
| 2008 | Yankees | 10.9 | -4.5 | -2.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
0.2
|
0.67 | -1.33 | -2.07 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 12.75 | 1.19 |
| 2009 | Yankees | 27.8 | -5.7 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 5.6 | -0.7 |
-0.7
|
1.61 | -1.36 | 0.45 | 3.08 | 2.65 | -2.63 | -5.56 |
| 2010 | Yankees | 1.4 | -3.0 | -0.7 | 3.3 | -4.1 | -1.2 |
-1.0
|
0.08 | -0.93 | -0.51 | 1.98 | -1.77 | -4.52 | -4.80 |
.
If it appeared to you watching the games last year that Derek had trouble getting around on the fastball last year, he did. It was the worst showing of his career on the pitch, and unlike 2004 (which featured a career 2nd best 24 HRs) it doesn’t appear to signal a change in approach. In 04 he killed the slider and change, so he was sitting off speed. Last year his numbers were anemic across the board, the only positive sign being on curveballs, which in all likelihood were hanging meatballs.
Maybe folks are dismissive because they don’t recognize the signs of decline and age, or are so attached to a player that they just don’t want to see it. Or maybe some younger fans haven’t witnessed the full arc of a player’s career from up close. During the steroid era, we saw players who actually got better as they aged, but this was a chemical-induced aberration that flies in the face of 100+ years of trends in Baseball history. Before the mid-1990s, players on the wrong side of 35 were considered to be on borrowed time. If we are dealing with a player in Jeter who as all suspect played clean, then the Yanks would be well-advised to deal with Derek’s age and declining production with great caution. I will not be one bit surprised if 2009 was his last good year, and if he follows the pattern of his most similar predecessors then further decline will be the rule, not exception.
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14 Responses to Don't dismiss Derek's age
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TIQ IQ
I don’t think he will ever get back to 2009 levels, and I doubt you’ll find any saber devotees who do. I think the general consensus is that he will see a small bounce back, possibly to 2008 levels, which is not that hard to believe.
http://riveraveblues.com/2010/11/link-dump-jeter-joba-mlb-vs-nfl-38122/
Its stuff like this I find dismissive. Also, the derisive “vague notion of his bat slowing down” stuff makes me wonder if he A) did any research B) watched him play C) knows what it is he’s looking at.
I’m all for cross checking what your eyes are telling you, but posts like that are simply ignorant of the facts and of any sense of historical context. Also, the recent projection systems are all skewed by baseball exiting the steroid era, so his numbers mean little to me. But I’m not a big fan of projection systems in general, which I think have little utility for a player Derek’s age. Weight things however you want, try cross checking the numbers for age 33-35 of some of those comps I listed. The basic math is flawed when you’re at a tipping point.
That last sentence doesn’t read well. Make it:
“Marchman’s math is flawed”
Im confused. Marchman’s point is that even if you weight last year more than you typically would, even if you apply a typical aging curve (to a guy who clearly doesnt belong on one, being that he is already a major outlier), Jeter projects to be a good player over the next few seasons.
Also, as a note, how are they skewed by the steroid era? They account for run environment, do they not? Numbers from that era are discounted relative to numbers from seasons not in that era.
If you looked at Alomar or Sandberg at age 34, or some of the other players on that list, you would have projected them to be good, and they weren’t. Again, it’s about being at a tipping point in one’s career.
But there are some guys who didn’t collapse. The aging curves account for a larger sample of aging experience. Now, it isn’t a huge sample, so I do agree that you need to be more careful.
If Jeter will not accept a 1 year plus multiple teams options going forward the just offer arbitration and be done.
During the playoffs one play really got my attention, although not commented on by the broadcast team. Jeter hit the ball (I thought, maybe I’m wrong) on the screws and I’m thinking “double, at least”. Instead, the center fielder just drifted over and made an easy catch. I also remembered thinking that Jeter looks thinner than he did a few years back. I’m not saying that he was juiced (although you never know) a few years back, but as someone that has lifted weights for over 30 years I know that it is impossible to train hard (when you get to Jeter’s age) without backing off of other types of training. One other thing that has caught my attention (and one time this season someone in the booth did comment) is that Jeter seems to be having neck issues. He has done his neck stretching thing for years, but this year he “seemed” to do it a lot more. Maybe he is running down and the Yanks need to bring in a top utility man that can give Jeter a couple of nights off a week. The Yanks better get creative and have a plan B because Jeter is probably only a cough or sneeze away from the Dl…
It’s called Eduardo Nunez.
That’s why I think 3 at 45 is more than generous. I wonder if the hold-up is going to be him wanting more than that or Cashman offering less than that. I imagine it’s the former. Hopefully Cashman holds fast.
I’m glad Steve mentioned the steroid effect in his post, because it has clearly skewed our perceptions of how older players perform.
I’m always one to stress probabilities. Although Jeter might rebound, the greater likelihood at his age is that we will see continuing decline. To expect him to be a useful shortstop beyond 2011 is being optimistic and anything more than two years is completely far-fetched in the light of ALL historical comparisons. At that point, as a regular shortstop, he most probably will become a positive impediment to winnning. As a fan, nothing else concerns me — not the “iconic status” crap, not what he means to the brand name, not how much the team earns on Jeter. He’ll occupy a roster spot the team needs for a more useful player.
Amen, Scout. Couldn’t have said it any better myself.
It was clear watching games during the season that Derek’s bat has slowed considerably since 2009 which probably shouldn’t be surprising giving his age but the “ant slump” people always credited Jeter with having uses a lot of timing and a quick bat through the zone to go inside out on pitches. It just seemed like more often than not this year when Jeter would try to do his normal inside out swing and go the other way he always seemed to be slightly late and he started topping off on top of balls and dribbling outs to 3rd.
What’s the alternative? Granderson and Gardner can be good for another 3-4 years in LF and CF. Do you want to move Alex to DH and put Jeter at 3B? Tex and Cano occupy 1st and 2nd and I’ve already mentioned eventual full time DH status, do you really want to force Jeter to retire or play somewhere else? If he wants to play for 4 more years he will and I don’t think he cares what we think on the internet, I don’t want to see Jeter in another uniform, I don’t want to force him to leave the game he has played his whole life before he’s ready to go and I don’t want him to be a drag on the team.
The best way to handle it is a 2 year deal with a player option for the 3rd year and a club option for the 4th if he activates his player option, he gets 2 guaranteed years and a 3rd year if he wants it at that time and the club is ensured he won’t be around for 4 years while Jeter saves face on the contract length.