Last week, EJ laid out his argument as to why Cliff Lee is an unnecessary upgrade. I, as many of you do, disagree and I’d like to say why I feel like Lee is a necessary upgrade. I’m not going to cut up EJ’s piece and FJM it or anything, but just give the reason why I think the Yankees should be on Cliff Lee like they were on CC Sabathia.
The reason is that the Yankees only have three definite starting pitchers under contract for 2010: CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett. Every team uses free agency as a way to fill voids with the best players possible, and in this case, there’s a void and Cliff Lee is the best player available. General Manager Brian Cashman and his squad always aim high and this should be no different.
Not only is Lee the best of the available players on the market, but the jump in quality–as the “number two” starter–from the pitcher who fills that spot–be it Hughes, Burnett, or possibly Andy Pettitte–is very, very big. As we know from his past performance, Cliff Lee is an ace pitcher. The argument could be made that he should start over CC Sabathia if on the team, but you’re essentially splitting hairs there. A front two of Sabathia/Lee is much better than a front two of Sabathia/(Hughes, Burnett, Pettitte).
While we may expect Andy Pettitte to return in 2011, it’s of course no guarantee. This makes adding Lee all the more important: it adds another known quantity; it adds a second lefty; it adds (broken record time) the best available player.
Call me a cynic, but of the three pitchers under contract for 2011, only one of them is essentially a known quantity. At this point, A.J. Burnett is a complete wildcard. We have no idea what the hell is going to come from his right arm every five days. Phil Hughes may be a little more solid after this season, but he’s still young and the only consistent thing from young pitchers is inconsistency.
As he is better than all the external options, Lee is miles better than the internal options. It seems now that the Yankees have permanently relegated Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen, the internal options for starting pitching in 2011 are short. While guys like Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos have great upside, they’re not ready to be in the big leagues. They’re also behind guys like David Phelps, Hector Noesi, and Ivan Nova. While they’re relatively close to the Majors, none of them inspire much confidence. Nova had trouble going six innings and without swing-and-miss stuff, he may be easy to figure out.
The big reason not to sign Cliff Lee is the potential contract. It’s likely to be five years and cost well north of $10MM. That isn’t to be ignored as it would give the Yankees a very high priced player who would quickly be in his decline years. However at this point, Lee is definitely good enough to take this risk. He has great control and doesn’t have stuff that is likely to just drop off a table any time soon. Even if it does, his control is such that he can make up for it. Will the 2011 Yankees be completely lost without Cliff Lee? Absolutely not. Still, it’s a risk that they don’t need to take. A Cliff Lee inclusive rotation is a massive upgrade and that is always necessary.
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14 Responses to A Necessary Upgrade
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TIQ IQ
Boo for no FJM. I want a food metaphor tag.
Completely agree. Pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Yanks will pursue Lee, the only questions will be who else is genuinely interested (i.e., Tex) and how much is Boston willing to risk to jack up the costs to the Yanks. There are no real good alternatives to Lee available – Greinke is a righty and has serious psyche questions. I will be curious to see how Nova does in the spring; I don’t think the Yanks will push Phelps or Noesi to the bigs at least until mid season but who knows….Is is March yet?
Good post, Matt. I thought EJ had some legit reasons. I think in this case, the need surprasses the want. I actually wrote about this topic in length (actually out of response to EJ) on Yankeeist if your interested in my full explanation.
Hey Matt,
I read your Yankeeist article. I don’t have a lot to add, except for one thing. In a probabilistic world, I think that people need to concern the full range of Cliff Lee contract scenarios. That’s my argument for the risk being too high. Imagine a world for a little bit where Cliff Lee gets injured, or declines early. What do the Yankees do then? They’ll have big budget team disease: little flexibility and declining players.
If Andy decides to retire, then you must go get Cliff Lee. The length of contract concerns me, though. He is 32 now, and I hope that he would not get hurt and become Carl Pavano!
Even if Andy doesn’t retire they will still go after Lee
I know you guys don’t think much of W-L but his last 5 years(probable length of contract he wants) are:
12-9
14-13
22-3 <– WOW!
5-8 <– OUCH!
14-11
I know he has been blistering in the playoffs and against us but $100 million for that? Is there possibly a better way to invest that much money? Yeah, I know, he doesn't walk anybody, but geez…
As you suggest, the W-L hardly tells the full story. Here’s his past 5 years in terms of IP, ERA, K/BB and HR:
IP – ERA – K/BB – HR
200.2 – 4.40 – 2.22 – 29
97.1 – 6.29 – 1.83 – 17
223.1 – 2.54 – 5.00 – 12
231.2 – 3.22 – 4.21 – 17
212.1 – 3.18 – 10.28 – 16
That’s not terribly easy to read, but it does say that for the past three years he has been a workhorse who doesn’t walk guys and gives up few HRs. I’d question the prudence of a 6-7 year deal, but I think they wouldn’t regret a big money 5 year deal. If your question is whether there’s a better way to invest the money, I don’t think there is if the Yankees plan to compete for the WS next year.
Honestly, that’s not worlds away from Javy Vasquez’s stats the three years before he came to the Yanks the second time. I’m not saying he’s not a formidable pitcher, but I’m not sure he’s a ‘bet the farm’ guy. I could see him hurt a bunch and not contributing much over the next five years. I’m sure they’ll go after him and I’ll be OK if they get him, but geez, it’s a gamble. C.C. wasn’t. Iknow, no C.C.s out there. Just sayin…
Javy’s best years were all in the NL Lee has actually pitched for 3 AL teams and done so very well, Lee isn’t Vazquez and it’s insulting to compare the 2 honestly.
Well if the other Steve S’s point is that they’re “not worlds away” from each other, then I think he’s right (or at least not insulting). Javy posted good IP, ERA and K/BB over the three years prior to 2010. Beyond those three numbers, though, there are a number of distinctions between Javy and Lee. First and most obvious is righty/lefty. Second, Cliff Lee has far fewer inning and years on his arm. Third, Javy is much more susceptible to giving up home runs. So yeah, Cliff Lee is a much better bet. But before 2010, Yankee fans had a lot to be excited about looking at Vazquez’s past 3 years in terms of IP, ERA and K/BB. It’s a fair (but limited) point by the other Steve S.
With the WS over, i simply cannot wait for the CLIFF LEE sweepstakes to dominate all MSM sports news outlets. The rumors and misdirection are going to be fun to follow and theorize over. There is no other legit great starter on the market aside from Lee.
While the Yankees might not exactly NEED a # 1-type starter, the problem is that there’s no #2 starter-type going to hit FA. Since no one wants to give up what it’ll take to land Greinke, acquiring Lee for a couple draft picks and probably a cost of $22 million AAS over 5 yrs … ain’t too bad.
Lee isnt exactly a power pitcher but the man has mastered how to pitch. We wont have to fear what’ll happen when he cant hit 93 mph. Lee represents a no-brainer acquisition target. The NYY need to rely on another vet given that Pettitte might not come back and Hughes’s ceiling remains in flux.
They should trade Joba if only view him as a BP arm
if they*