What to expect from Andy?

Clearly, the starting pitching the Yanks have been getting over the first two games has been a problem. The extra rest appeared to hurt both CC and Hughes’ command, and the results weren’t pretty. If the Yankee starters continue to pitch as they have over the first two games, the Yanks will lose the series, period. But it’s just 2 games, and all three pitched great in the ALDS against the Twins. Andy has had many great moments in the post season throughout his career, so fans should have a overall sense of confidence whenever he’s on the mound.

But what can we expect from Andy on Monday night? No one knows for sure, but to get a general idea I want to look at 3 categories. Overall post season numbers, his stats facing the Rangers, and his numbers with 6+ days of rest. I think those three are the most relevant broad categories heading into Monday’s contest. First, his post season stats.

Year                 S W L  W-L%   ERA  G GS GF CG SHO SV    IP   H   R  ER HR BB IBB  SO HBP BK WP   BF  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

13 Seasons (29 Series) 19 9  .679  3.87 41 41  0  0   0  0 256.0 266 114 110 30 72   3 168   3  1  4 1072 1.320  9.4  1.1  2.5  5.9  2.33

His 3.87 ERA in the post season is virtually identical to his career 3.88 mark, adding further evidence  for those of us who believe there’s no difference between post season and regular season numbers for those who get enough opportunities (see Derek Jeter as well). Andy’s 1.320 post season WHIP is also basically identical to his career 1.357 mark. He’s the same guy, as expected.

Next let’s look at his career numbers facing the Texas Rangers:

I                           Split   W  L  W-L%  ERA   G  GS GF CG SHO SV     IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB IBB   SO HBP BK WP   BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
                     Texas Rangers  11  9  .550 5.24  23  23  0  0   0  0  146.0  178  93  85  11  51   6  105   2  1  5  652 1.568  6.5  2.06

Texas doesn’t appear to be a great match up for Andy. It’s 146 IP, so it’s not like it’s a tiny sample, either. One explanation could be the righty-heavy lineup they feature. In recent years, Andy has suffered a pretty sizable platoon split. Check out his numbers from this year and in 2008. His numbers last year and his overall mark have been relatively even, but as he ages righty batters have given him far more trouble than lefties, who he’s dominated. Could go a long way to explaining his terrific outing facing the Twins and be a bad sign for Monday night.

Finally, let’s look at how he performs on extra rest:

I       Split   W  L  W-L%   ERA   G  GS GF CG SHO SV     IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB IBB   SO HBP BK WP   BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
      1 DayGS   1  0 1.000  0.00   1   1  0  0   0  0    6.0    4   0   0   0   1   0    3   0  0  0   22 0.833  4.5  3.00
     3 DaysGS   4  6  .400  4.15  14  14  0  1   1  0   86.2   86  42  40   6  38   2   69   1  1  3  367 1.431  7.2  1.82
     4 DaysGS 155 82  .654  3.91 290 290  0 18   3  0 1873.1 1930 892 813 176 580  26 1387  27  6 40 7934 1.340  6.7  2.39
     5 DaysGS  61 35  .635  3.89 122 122  0  6   0  0  776.2  840 377 336  59 239   8  575  13  2 10 3330 1.389  6.7  2.41
    6+ DaysGS  18 14  .563  3.73  52  52  0  0   0  0  296.2  310 144 123  22 100   5  206  10  2  8 1272 1.382  6.2  2.06

Andy’s fine on extra rest, which comes as no surprise to me. Andy likes to throw every day, so keeping his arm from getting too strong and having his breaking pitches straighten out isn’t a problem. When he gets hit, it’s because he just doesn’t have it that day. As you can see, he’s pretty much the same regardless of rest.

In summary, too much rest shouldn’t be a problem for Andy, and we shouldn’t expect him to be any different in the post season than he is in the regular season.  But the Rangers appear to have his number. Looks like the Yanks will be hoping Cliff Lee has an off night, or can work some more late magic against the Texas bullpen.