(Moshe asked me to repost this, and so I have)
The baseball playoffs are just three days old, but already there seem to be certain things that we’ve, if not necessarily learned anew, then have had reinforced to the point where it’s almost comical.
1) What postseason jitters?
In their first career postseason starts, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and CJ Wilson were all fantastic–of course, Halladay’s no-hitter and Lincecum’s 14-strike out game, with game scores of 94 and 96 respectively, exist on a different level entirely.
In fact, it’s going to be a fun question to ponder–which pitcher had the better game?
Lincecum’s bevy of strikeouts argues that he had better pure swing-and-miss stuff (and he had a lot of those, swings and misses, 31 total), but the Reds never came close to hitting Halladay–their hardest hit baseball came off the bat of their pitcher, Travis Wood.
Halladay’s stuff was so good, that by the fifth inning the tweets were telling everyone to call friends and neighbors, that the one walk seemed an unfortunate aberration more than anything else.
You also have to consider that the Reds offense is invariably considered better than the Braves’, and that AT&T Park plays bigger than Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Then again, when you’re striking out fourteen batters, you could be pitching in a silo and it still wouldn’t matter.
There’s also that the Giants won that game 1-0, the lone run scoring after the umpire botched a call at second base, which brings me to point number two
2) The umpires are not very good.
Yesterday, in the River Ave Blues chat, RAB writer Mike Axisa mentioned that umpires are loathe to toss managers from postseason games, and yet yesterday two managers were so ejected.
No one is blaming the managers.
So far we have egregious strike zones in the Rays/Rangers and Yankees/Twins series, Greg Golson’s should-have-ended-the-game catch, Posey’s-steal-but-he-was-out of second that eventually scored last night’s only run, a nice summation of Hunter Wendelstedt’s inconsistent zone last night, Carlos Peña’s hbp-but-was-he-really, so on and so fourth.
There are six umpires assigned to postseason series.
Get it right, or go get robots.
3) The Yankees own the Twins in postseason play.
I’ve been over the tropes in my recaps, but when Minnesota’s scored first in eight straight games and lost all eight, you kind of have to start to wonder if maybe the Twins are hoping that just once the Yankees score first, or something.
Like the games last season (with the exception of last year’s ALDS game one), these games have been close and decided in the seventh inning on, where the Minnesota bullpen simply has no match for the Yankees’ relievers, even the ones not named Mariano Rivera.
You almost hate to give credit to the idea that the Yankees’ are in the Twins head, but barring a spectacular collapse on the part of the Yankees, you almost have to wonder if maybe the Yankees played down for the Wild Card…okay, it’s unlikely, but it’s hard to argue that thus far the Twins in round one has made for a much better outcome than the Rangers in round one may have been.
4) The Rays are not infallible. Much was made that the winner of the AL East was arguably the best team in the American League, but not only have the Rays lost the first two games of their ALDS matchup, you can argue that they’ve hardly even competed.
Part of this is no doubt due to the stellar pitching of Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson, but Tampa’s first two starters, David Price and James Shields, haven’t held onto their end of the bargain, allowing Texas to stake to large leads early, giving the Rangers’ pitchers all they need to get their job done.
Yankee fans are no doubt rooting for the Rays to win the next two games and thus force a game five, and thus hopes of “tiring out” their potential ALCS opponent (assuming the Yankees hold up their end of the bargain), but now it’s the Rangers that have the benefit of heading home, and all the confidence in the world…
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30 Responses to What the First Two Days of LDS Play has Taught Us
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TIQ IQ
Please don’t forget the Twins are missing their first baseman Justin Morneau who is a huge bat and has an MVP award as well as a 2nd place MVP finish
I love how when Morneau isn’t in the lineup everyone talks about how great a player Kubel is and how he is stepping up and filling those shoes in a big way but as soon as Kubel starts to struggle against good pitching it immediately becomes “Oh well we don’t have Morneau so we never had a chance” pick a story and stick to it. Either he is the MVP of the team and really important beyond words even more so than Mauer and Kubel can’t even come close to him or he is a good player on the team that can get glossed over for a fill in bat.
I’m a Met fan all together to set things straight. But I do believe Morneau bat is missed, Kubel isn’t a bad player but if you had to pick one to put in the line up who would it be??
No doubt he’s a great ball player but all you hear on the lead up to this game is that Kubel is the X factor and he is the guy who has shown he can hit the Yankees (Mo’s Grand slam) and the Twins won’t miss Justin because of Kubel.
I just find it hard to believe that everyone was so confident in the fact that Kubel is the guy who will fill in for Morneau but as soon as he falters (as he always does in the playoffs) everyone cries there is no Morneau.
I wasn’t on that bandwagon. Morneau over Kubel anyday
Never said you were I don’t know you I was just simply stating what a lot of Sportscenter, MLB network, Minnesota news articles were clearly saying.
Very true. They missed Morneau last season as well IIRC
I’m sick and tired of all the umpire griping. Human error is part of the game when it comes to players and managers, so why is every up in arms about human error among umpire. There is no arguing that these errors occur throughout the season and are only magnified during the post-season. Moreover, I always find that umpire errors general play both ways (for example…Golson’s missed catched impacted the Yankees and Pavano’s missed strike impacted the Twins).
I would be happy to embrace a replay system if their were assurances that it would be quick and wouldn’t disrupt the flow of the game. Unfortunately, having watched replay play out in the NFL the past decade, I don’t have much confidence that replay would be much faster in baseball.
Yes it’s frustrating to see umpire errors, but I get just as frustrated with a shortstop booting the ball or an manager leave a pitcher in to long. I don’t hear anyone screaming for robot players or coaches.
OK! Rant over.
I never got this argument. Player failure is inherent to competition. For one team to win, the other team needs to lose, and therefore fail. Errors by players are therefore rightfully part of the game. Conversely, umpire errors are not inherent to competition, and if they can be avoided, should be.
The only thing distinguishing factor in baseball is that we will never be able to get rid of a man behind the plate calling balls and strikes and because of that you will always have human error and bias.
Ain’t necessarily so: with a radar ranged for the hitter’s strike zone, a tone could hum in the umpire’s ear to indicate the ball passing through the zone. Umpires could then concentrate to improve treatment of hit-by-pitch and, more important, checked swings.
More than tiring out the Rangers or Rays, getting to Game 5 would mean that Lee or Price couldn’t go until Game 3 of the ALCS. Sign me up for that.
if i were to start a team..and could pick any 1b men it would be justin..when he is not hurt ,,all around nobody comes close ,even puljos the juicer.. shame to see him out,great” baseball player”..
I would pick Tex he plays some of the best baseball in the league defensively and he is a switch hitter who always jacks over 30 HRs and he actually stays on the field… Tex has a chance to be in some Mickey Mantle like home run numbers when it’s all said and done.
What was Tex’s Average this year??? Give me Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, A-Gon any day
You just argued batting average to compare players? Give me a break.
Batting Average has a lot to do with it. That’s why 40/20 guy Mark Reynolds isn’t on my list.
Batting average has nothing to do with it…. OBP… SLG… wOBA… UZR all make much better arguments.
What do you want a guy who hits .300 or a guy who has a .400 OBP?
I’ll give you Pujols because well he is the greatest hitter of this generation but I like Mark’s defense and I don’t watch Pujols enough to see his daily defense in comparison but I like the overall package including what he brings to a clubhouse so I will stick to what I’m comfortable with.
However Migeul Cabrera isn’t in the same league overall as Tex Miggy is a few years from being forced into being a DH and would be better off being a DH right now if the Tigers had a good first baseman besides him. His power numbers are great but over a longer career Tex has a higher SLG% and similar OPS adding to the fact that Tex is a switch hitter and while I would wager that Miguel is probably a little better overall bat Mark’s defense more than makes up for that and takes away more runs than Cabrera does.
Tex has a higher career OBP and SLG% over A Gon.
Joey Votto is a great ball player but there numbers are close and I wll take the more proven commodity at this point if I need a first baseman for a 1 team for 1 contract.
Miguel Cabrera has a career -6.7 UZR at 1B Tex has a career 38.3 UZR at first.
Miguel Cabrera’s career line .313/.388/.552 with a wOBA of .394
Mark Teixeira’s career line .286/.377/.536 with a wOBA of .388
They are so close offensively you have to go to the defense to find out which one is the better player and when you factor in how terrible a first baseman Miggy Vs the gold glove defense of Tex at first it breaks it wide open for Mark as the better overall player.
Adrian Gonzalez career UZR is 6.1and his career line is .284/.368/.507 with a wOBA of .369
It’s unfair at this point to compare career lines of Joey Votto because Joey V has only 3 real years in the majors which was my original argument for taking Tex over Joey.
However if you just want to look at them UZR of 11.7 line of .314/.401/.557 and a wOBA of .409
Pena plays a pretty good firstbase too if I remember right
Pena’s OBP is worse than any of the guys above me and he strikes out more than any of the above… To use an example you sited Carlos Pena is Mark Reynolds but with good defense he is no where near the range of any of the guys above.
Miguel Cabrera may be an awful defender but he such a better batter than Pena then it doesn’t matter but when trying to separate Tex and Miggy you have to use defense to determine the whole story. Pena has a career OPS of .841 and a wOBA of .360 the guy is a HR or strikeout AB almost every single time.
the AL guys are a cut above, NL is a softer league.. i tend to believe in the #s in the AL, carry more weight.. ask matt holliday where he wants to play
puljos and cabrera are proven greats, i love votto and hope he can stay great same with cargo, cabrera is the al mvp this year . cano is the yanks mvp.. i like votto for the nl.. tex has to stop using only have the field and his value will sky rocket.. he has a giambi mentality as far as pulling everything.
How can Miguel Cabrera be the MVP? His team missed the playoffs… IF you want to give to a guy with the best stats then give it to Josh Hamilton at last his team made the big dance.
I just have a hard time justifying Cabrera “more valuable” than a guy on a playoff team.
i agree with you on hamilton, i stand corrected, i don’t feel mvp must come from a playoff team..pitching brings you into the playoffs.. cabrera carried the team for awhile, just too much of a load in 162 games..magglio went down ,boshe never hit after the AS game,damon had 8 homers..pen got hurt..he had a great year with no protection.. but josh should be the mvp,
Chris’ earlier point about defensive runs-saved sb brought into the mvp consideration. Defensive stats aren’t so reliable or conclusive, but defensive contributions are just as important to a team. Cano for MVP!
Tex if healthy will have 500 plus, justin really has no dead month slumps and hugh ground to make up each year.. the kid in a non injury year will be an mvp main stay. he hits to all fields and 50 points higher..defense they are “about” equal. i don’t think you see tex hit 40 homers again..he is very pull crazy.that hurts him and for my money is second or third behind justin.. thanks for the opinion T.O.Chris.
Isn’t actually playing count for something? Morneau has played less than 150 games in 5 of his 8 seasons and this year he only played in 81 games total.
Tex on the other hand has played less than 140 games 1 time and that was in 2007 when he was traded from Texas to Atlanta and played 137 games, he gets hurt and he still plays through pain and plays a plus first base with excellent power numbers for a switch hitter. Mickey Mantle currently has the most home runs of any switch hitter in MLB history with 536 and if Tex stays healthy he is on pace to go past that and probably seal up a hall of fame career at that point.
Over the the 2 careers in question Morneau has a WAR of 21.6 and Tex has a WAR of 36.3 now certainly part of that is staying on the field but that is a valid part of the analysis and Tex is worth more wins Justin over the course of his career.
I would also say in Yankee stadium Tex is very capable of hitting 40 HRs pulling the ball you can make a case that had the Rays actually pitched to him last year in the last series of the year he would have hit 40 HRs since he was stuck on 39 going into those 3 games. I would go so far as to say the reason he didn’t hit more home runs this year isn’t because he pulls too much but because he didn’t get locked into the left side of the plate until 2 months into the season.
I would also say that Tex is a MVP candidate every year playing for the New York Yankees hitting in front of Alex Rodriguez with the abiltity to drive in runs like he can he has all the right settings and abilities to win such an award.
Justin Morneau’s career line is .286/.358/.511 wOBA of .366
Mark Teixeira’s career line .286/.377/.536 wOBA of .388
Obviously Pujols is the best first baseman in the league but after that I think there is a definite case for Tex as number 2 and I think he is almost a lock as the best first baseman in the American League he can field, he can hit for power, he walks and he maintains playing games despite the injuries that are nagging him.
you presented a good case, as i started out,if he could stay healthy ..tex will break mantle’s #..justin career avg. is only .286? seems like he hits 340 every year..didn’t they hit him in that series?