Each season, TYU writers make a number of predictions regarding the upcoming season, and each year I look back and note how awful most of those predictions are (here’s a link to last season’s retrospective). This season is no different, as 2010 confirmed that, ya know Susan, you just can’t predict baseball.
Who will make the playoffs from the American League?
EJ Fagan: Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Red Sox
Chris Harihar: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox
Matt Imbrogno: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox
Moshe Mandel: Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Red Sox
Steve Shaka: Yankees, White Sox, Mariners, Rays
Only one writer got 3 of the 4 playoff teams, and the Rays and Rangers only got one vote each. Meanwhile, the Mariners got two votes and ended up with over 100 losses.
Who will make the playoffs from the National League?
EJ: Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies, Giants
Chris: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Reds
Matt: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves
Moshe: Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies, Dodgers
Steve: Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies, Braves
One vote each for the Reds and Giants and two votes for the Braves makes the TYU gang look a bit better here, but no one getting more than 2 of 4 is fairly awful. Overall, no one guessed more than 4 of the 8 playoff teams correctly. I’ll skip the World Series predictions for now, but let’s just say that my Rockies prediction is not looking so hot at this moment.
Who will win the Cy Young Awards?
EJ: Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum
Chris: Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum
Matt: Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw
Moshe: Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw
Steve: Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay
This is likely our best category, as all of the picks finished in the Top 7 in their league in pitcher WAR according to Fangraphs. Steve actually has a good chance of nailing both winners, as Hernandez and Halladay are the favorites at this point.
Who will win the Most Valuable Player awards?
EJ: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols
Chris: Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday
Matt: Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley
Moshe: Justin Mourneau, Troy Tulowitzki
Steve: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols
Hmmm. A lot of A-Rod picks. I am pretty happy with my picks here, as Morneau and Tulo would be getting serious consideration if they had remained healthy all year.
Who will win the Rookie of the Year Awards?
EJ: Brian Matusz, Jason Heyward
Chris: Austin Jackson, Jason Heyward
Matt: Brian Matusz, Jason Heyward
Moshe: Neftali Feliz, Jason Heyward
Steve: Brian Matusz, Jason Heyward
I suspect that Buster Posey will make all of us wrong in the NL, but this is a pretty solid list of the top rookies in 2010. Jackson or Feliz will likely win in the AL.
Who will win the Come Back Player of the Year awards?
EJ: Travis Hafner, Brandon Webb
Chris: BJ Upton, Jeff Francis
Matt: Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb
Moshe: Grady Sizemore, Jeff Francis
Steve: Ben Sheets, Tim Hudson
This category is always a crapshoot, and we missed on most of these picks. Webb and Sizemore did not play much, while Upton, Francis, and Sheets were adequate at best. Travis Hafner did show improvement but not enough to win this award. Only Hudson is a viable candidate, as he had a very strong season and could win.
Who will win the Manager of the Year Awards?
EJ: Trey Hillman, Jim Tracy
Chris: Don Wakamatsu, Joe Torre
Matt: Don Wakamatsu, Jim Tracy
Moshe: Ron Washington, Jim Tracy
Steve: Joe Girardi, Bobby Cox
Considering that Hillman and Wakamatsu did not finish the season with their respective clubs, Torre destroyed Broxton and then quit, and Tracy caught a lot of flack for the Rockies inability to close the gap in the NL West, these selections look pretty poor. Once again, Steve is the only one with two viable picks (yes, Girardi is viable, but that is a topic for a whole separate post).
Who will prove to be the best off season free agent signing?
EJ: Extending Justin Upton
Chris: Adrian Beltre
Matt: Ben Sheets, Matt Holliday
Moshe: Rich Harden
Steve: Rafael Soriano
Chris and Steve look quite good here, as Beltre and Soriano had fantastic seasons. Rich Harden, not so much.
Who will prove to be the worst off season free agent signing?
EJ: Brandon Lyon
Chris: Matt Holliday
Matt: Brandon Lyon, Joel Piniero
Moshe: Ben Sheets
Steve: Placido Polanco
Holliday and Polanco had good years, as did Lyon. I do not think any of these deals were quite as bad as the Nick Johnson and Mike Cameron deals, so this was another poor attempt to predict baseball. It’s almost like you can’t do it, or something.
What will prove to be the best off season trade?
EJ: Yankees acquire Javier Vazquez
Chris: Mariners acquire Milton Bradley
Matt: Yankees acquire Javier Vazquez, Yankees acquire Curtis Granderson, Phillies acquire Roy Halladay
Moshe: Twins acquire JJ Hardy
Steve: Yankees acquire Javier Vazquez
Yeah, so about that Vazquez deal….. The Halladay trade certainly qualifies.
What will prove to be the worst off season trade?
EJ: Phillies give away Cliff Lee
Chris: Cubs acquire Carlos Silva
Matt: Cubs acquire Carlos Silva
Moshe: Cubs acquire Carlos Silva
Steve: Mets Acquire Gary Matthews Jr.
Silva was decent and GMJ was irrelevant. I have to side with EJ here, in that the Lee deal required the Phillies to go out and get Roy Oswalt mid-season to replace him. That was an odd sequence of events.
How many games will the Yankees win?
I think some of the higher totals would have been closer to the truth if the Yankees had been playing for something in September, but the late swoon means that I was closest to the Yankees 95 win total.
Which Yankee will have the most MVP votes?
EJ: Alex Rodriguez
Chris: Alex Rodriguez
Matt: Alex Rodriguez
Moshe: Mark Teixeira
Steve: Alex Rodriguez
Robbie Cano, don’tcha know?
Which Yankee spends the most time on the disabled list?
EJ: Damaso Marte
Chris: Damaso Marte
Matt: Andy Pettitte
Moshe: Jorge Posada
Steve: Nick Johnson
All four spent time on the DL, but Johnson is made of glass and probably should have been a unanimous pick.
Which Yankee rookies will make their MLB debuts?
EJ: Ivan Nova, Jesus Montero, Kevin Russo, Colin Curtis, Romulo Sanchez, Wilkins De La Rosa, Reegie Corona, Zach McAllister
Chris: Jesus Montero, Kevin Russo
Matt: Ivan Nova, Jesus Montero, Kevin Russo, Zach McCallister
Moshe: Jesus Montero, Ivan Nova, Kevin Russo, Zach McCallister, Romulo Sanchez, Chris Garcia
Steve: Jesus Montero, Zach McCallister, Wilkin De La Rosa, Jeremy Bleich
Nova, Russo, Curtis, Sanchez all made debuts, and EJ was the only one to pick all of them. De La Rosa, Corona, Bleich, and Garcia moved in the wrong direction, McCallister regressed and was traded, while Montero has a chance to start 2011 with the big club.
So that’s it for the TYU 2010 predictions. Overall, as with most detailed predictions, they were wildly inaccurate.
What surprised you about 2010?
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