Cubs Hire Mike Quade (Translation: Girardi Stays)

MLBTR has the word:

The Cubs signed manager Mike Quade to a two-year deal with a club option for 2013, according to the team. Quade, 53, became Chicago’s interim manager on August 23rd after Lou Piniella retired. He was the team’s third base coach from 2007-10 after managing the Triple-A Iowa Cubs for four seasons.

Iowa’s most recent manager, Ryne Sandberg, was also a finalist for the major league managerial job. Mariners manager Eric Wedge interviewed for the position and the Cubs also appeared interested in Yankees manager Joe Girardi, whose contract expires after the season.

While it is possible that Joe Girardi leaves New York, it was always unlikely, and this news further lengthens the odds. When the rumors of him leaving for the Cubs last cropped up, I gave the following reasons for why I believe he will stay:

1) Money: The most frequent reason for employee movement tends to be that the new city is offering more cash than the old. While the Cubs certainly have the money to offer Joe a competitive contract, I have a hard time believing they can outbid the Yankees for his services. If the Yankees want Joe back, and barring an epic collapse I would assume that they will, their offer is likely to be the largest he receives.

2) Winning: Occasionally, a player or manager will make a move that is not the best financial decision, sacrificing some money for the sake of winning. Once again, the Yankees outrank the Cubs, as the Cubs have shown an inability to translate high payrolls into consistent results. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been contenders for the last 15 seasons, and do not figure to fall back to the pack any time soon.

3) Glory/Legacy: This factor is typically overplayed by fans and the media, with a fine example coming this summer in the Knicks pursuit of LeBron James. One factor Knick fans tried to push was that winning one title in New York would cement LeBron as a New York legend forever. While that may have been true, it did not trump other factors in the eyes of the player. I have heard similar arguments regarding Joe and the Cubs: “If he wins one with the Cubs, he is set for life.” While that may be true, it presupposes that his legacy is important to him. Additionally, winning one in Chicago would be great and would make him a local deity. Winning 4 or 5 in New York would likely get him into the Hall of Fame and give him a larger national profile. If Girardi wants glory, New York is just as likely to provide it as Chicago.

4) Family/Local/Organizational Ties: While Girardi does have strong ties to the Yankee organization, he is an Illinois native who went to school at Northwestern, was drafted by the Cubs, and played in Chicago for 7 seasons in two separate stints. This is the one category where the Cubs beat the Yankees, but I am not certain that it will be enough to trump what the Yankees can offer Joe. Similar concerns were raised about CC Sabathia and the West Coast as well as Mark Teixeira and the Baltimore area, and in both cases the money and winning in New York was the deciding factor. I see no reason for this situation to be any different.

All of these factors continue to ring true. The only one that worked in Chicago’s favor was the family and organizational ties that Joe has with the Cubs, something that does not apply to any other team. There does not seem to be a logical landing spot for Girardi should he choose to leave, and he likely lost a lot of leverage at the negotiating table now that the Cubs have filled their opening. Unless something goes horribly wrong at the negotiating table, Joe Girardi will be managing the Yankees in 2011.

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