Mike recently wrote a persuasive article explaining why Derek Jeter shouldn’t serve as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter anymore. As to be expected, not everyone shared Yankeeist’s sentiments about Jeter’s ideal spot in the lineup. Some of the more amusing rebuttals included:
“Who can do that better than Jeter? With Gardner on first, Jeter batting from the right side,and playing the hit and run, the opposing shortstop remains in position while the second baseman covers second. Then Jeets shoots one through the 4-3 hole like in the old days. Basic baseball which might be hard for some of you neanderthals to understand.” — Anonymous
“I know, let’s just get rid of Derek Jetier (sic) and bring back the Babe. What is wrong with people? Derek is one of thee (sic) greatest ball players there is and when a slump comes on so does the slander. The Yankees have given us so much to be proud of for many years. Let them play ball!!! They are winners and so is Derek Jetier (sic). He’s a leaeder (sic) and a leader needs to lead off.” — Anonymous
Spelling issues aside, I’d have to say that the Jeter faithful are quite vociferous. On a side note, is “bringing back The Babe” an option? Some quality pitching would be pretty convenient right now. Well, for that matter, I guess his bat couldn’t hurt either. Alas, I digress.
Anyway, I think the more ominous discussion pertains to next year. As this season comes to an end, Derek Jeter will become a huge focal point of contention. The cold and heartless will implore Yankee brass to carefully assess Jeter’s future worth and offer a prudent contract which anticipates the inevitable decline. Those with uncompromising loyalty to #2 will scream blasphemy, and suggest demand an adequate a generous offering to El Capitán worthy of his prolific contributions over the past decade-plus.
I suppose as this debate rages on, we should try to keep in mind that Derek Jeter is currently 36 years old. He’ll be coming off a season emphasized by career lows that overshadow the prior 2009 season which was underlined with renaissance highs. He’s currently making $22.6M per year. Here at Yankeeist, we have pondered this topic and have listed our preferences and predictions for Jeter’s upcoming contract.
Larry’s take
Preference: It’s very difficult to talk about Jeter’s next contract without sounding like a petulant ingrate, but in a town of “what have you done for me lately?” it seems incredible that Derek, en route to the worst season of his career, by many accounts is still going to get paid quite handsomely in what will presumably be the final contract of his career.
Don’t get me wrong here — I of course love Derek Jeter for everything he has done as a Yankee, and will always love Jeter. He’s been one of the best players to ever suit up in a Yankee uniform, and a likely future Hall-of-Famer. He’s helped bring untold joy to the masses in New York City throughout his career, is a true role model and inspiration for fans of any and every age and has been one of the classiest men in all of sports.
However, he’s already been paid for greatness. In fact, Derek’s coming off a contract that has helped make him one of the richest men in sports, and if he so desired he would never have to work another day in his life, not to mention set his family up for generations. So why should the Yankees grant 36-year-old Derek Jeter, coming off a rather awful season any which way you slice it, anything close to what he was previously making? For services rendered? Heck no, that’s not how it works — the Yankees have been burned way too many times in the past paying for previous accomplishments. I know the situation was slightly different, but the Yankees didn’t seem to have too much trouble telling Bernie Williams what they thought of his playing ability when it became apparent Bernie was washed up but good. Bernie became a liability, and while Jeter may not be there quite yet, another year like this and he most certainly will be, especially if he continues to hit leadoff. A .329 OBP is wholly unacceptable for a leadoff hitter, and the Yankees know that better than anyone else.
So what kind of contract do I think Derek Jeter deserves? I thought The New York Post‘s Joel Sherman hit the nail on the head pretty well a few weeks ago when he mentioned Marco Scutaro as a comparable. Scutaro signed a two-year, $12.5 million deal with Boston last offseason, and has produced a .274/.333/.389 line, good for a .319 wOBA and 2.0 fWAR. Despite that unsightly wOBA, according to Fangraphs Scutaro’s already paid for himself and then some this season, having been worth $8.1 million.
Derek Jeter has hit .261/.329/.369, .314 wOBA and 1.7 fWAR, through Sunday, September 12. His season has been worth $6.9 million, and he has been outperformed by the $6.25M-per-year Scutaro. Based on that production, I would offer Jeter a one-year, $7.5 million deal to show that he’s still got something left in the tank. If he can rebound — not to his 2009 levels, as that would be unrealistic — but even to his 2008 season in which he managed a .343 wOBA, then perhaps I’d open the bank door a bit further and give Jeter the one last big contract he’s looking for. Say, three years, $45 million and call it a day.
I don’t care about Jeter’s perceived value to the Yankees as a marketing asset — they’re the Yankees, and as beloved as Jeter is, it’s not like people are going to stop going to Yankee games if Jeter’s not playing anymore. The fact is, Jeter as a player is not even worth $10 million a year anymore, and may not even be worth more than Marco Scutaro.
Prediction: Of course, everything I just wrote will all go out the window during Jeter’s contract negotiations. If the Yankees really are “going to take care of Jeter” as the media
has quoted team personnel as saying, then he probably won’t be in for a pay cut, and may even see his average annual value increase considering that the duration of the contract will be shorter. Jeter will also likely point out that the Yankees are paying Alex Rodriguez zillions of dollars until his age 44 season, and given that he’s Derek Jeter, he needs to be paid somewhat comparably, despite the fact that Derek has never been as talented a baseball player as Alex.
The Yankees will probably lock Jeter up for four to five more years, at around $20 million per. It’s ridiculous, but it’s difficult to see the negotiations going down any other way. If by some miracle they were even able to get Derek down to $15 million/year that would probably have to be considered some sort of minor victory, but after the presumed hurt feelings of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon after they were offered pay cuts, I don’t see the prideful Derek being willing to take a lower salary.
Matt’s take
Preference: I respect Derek Jeter as much as the next Yankee fan. He’s been the catalyst of the Yankee organization and has become a generational icon. By and large, he has defied age and demonstrated what it means to be a “True Yankee” (if there is such a thing).
Yet, I do not believe it is likely that he’ll re-emerge in the next few seasons as an elite shortstop. He could be relatively productive, however. His true value might be best measured by the intangible factors that he brings to the table (ugh!). I of course believe that Jeter should remain in pinstripes, and I’d assume that there is a better chance of the Cubs winning the World Series this year than Jeter not returning to New York next season with a contract that covers the remainder of his career.
If I had my druthers, Jeter would accept a three-year, $36 million contract. Assuming he was serviceable at shortstop and still moderately effective with the bat, he’d be a quality contributor. Once either of those caveats no longer applied, he would DH. After the next three seasons (assuming he is still interested in playing), he could sign yearly contracts and play a field position on some conditional arrangement. Otherwise, I’d like to see him accept a non-player role in the Yankee organization.
In terms of money, $12 million per year is not overly generous but is certainly beyond appropriate value. As Larry mentioned, guys like Marco Scutaro provide comparable production and value. However, guys like Scutaro are only making $6.25M. Jeter would be earning more than double the salary of similar players (as a means of showing gratitude for all of his “Jeterian moments”).
This would still be a massive savings from the $20 million-per-year contract that has been quietly circulating throughout the media. Alex Rodriguez already represents one monstrous albatross; there’s no need repeating the same mistake. Generally, guys over age forty SHOULD NOT be making $20 million-plus. Sorry. That’s the offer and my hard line.
Prediction: It’s a good thing I’m not a member of Yankee brass, right? This idea of cutthroat negotiation with the most marketable face in baseball probably doesn’t vibe well with most Yankee fans. After all, there are Yankees and then there is Derek Jeter. He deserves a blank check for as many years as he wishes, right?
Here’s my official (albeit slightly depressing) prediction. Four years, twenty million per. I just don’t envision Jeter accepting a significant pay cut (if any). I also don’t expect that the Yankee organization is willing to risk the public backlash sparked by the possibility of Jeter achieving his milestones in any other uniform.
Mike’s take
Preference: Derek Jeter is a $10 million-a-year player now. The Yankees should pay him something in that range, for a single season. It is entirely possible that next season will be like pulling teeth, with Jeter hitting .220, limping toward his 3,000th hit. The reality is that a player showing the kind of decline Jeter has in two of the last three seasons should go year-to-year.
The problem, of course, is that despite his reputation for leadership, Jeter is rather stubborn. He may allow his pride to get the better of his rationality. To which I suggest the Yankees get creative. The team should make Jeter an equity partner.
I don’t know if the collective bargaining agreement would allow this, but it makes a ton of sense. Jeter has said he wants a seat in an ownership box someday. Making him a partner is the kind of “for-you only” move he’s looking for. It allows the team to prepare for the transition to when Jeter is retired, while keeping him involved in the team. If Jeter is at all a shrewd businessman, he’ll recognize that the shares in the team may be worth far more than what he forgoes in salary.
Prediction: Some things make too much sense to happen. The Yankees appear willing to sacrificing wins in the future for wins today. There will come a time, soon, when the team will have superstars who are no longer aging, but are old, at both third and short. Jeter will be one of them, making $20-$25 million over four or five years.
How does this stack up with your opinion? Tell us your thoughts.
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0 Responses to What do you think Derek Jeter is worth and what do you think the Yankees will end up paying him?
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TIQ IQ
$20-$25 million over four or five years is exactly what I think he'll get. What's interesting about Jeter is the Yankees aren't just paying him for what he does on the field, but also because of what he means as the face of the team. Jeter puts butts in the seats, no matter how bad he's playing. Remember 0-April a few years back, when he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn? the fans didn't riot, they rallied around him with signs. If the Yankees had their own currency, surely Jeter's face would be on the $20s. and like Mariano Rivera, I try not to underestimate Jeter's ability to perform on the field, especially after last year, but that's besides the point. Jeter will get a ton of money – and he'll drive it home in his new Ford Edge, but with the vista roof closed.
~jamie
"So why should the Yankees grant 36-year-old Derek Jeter, coming off a rather awful season any which way you slice it, anything close to what he was previously making? For services rendered? Heck no, that's not how it works"
Lar,
See: Hurd, Mark. Hayward, Tony.
Unfortunately, this is exactly how it works.
All of your takes are insightful and sadly I agree with all of you with your predictions. I'd much rather see any one of your three suggestions, but we should all just bunker down as $20-25 for 4-5 yrs might as well already be earning interest…
-Mollo
I know it was touched upon, but IMO I don't think you can have this discussion without focusing much more on 3,000 hits and the associated attention. Lar – it goes beyond marketability. I'm confident that the organization can quantify how much revenue he brings in; rest assured that whatever he gets paid will be keyed heavily into that. Mike – have thought for a while that giving him skin in the game was good business. To come full circle to my first point – what he gets paid here on out will not be for current or future production, it will be for his being a major revenue center. No better way to reward that than with ownership.
- Lenny
This seasons he is having is his worsest and no GM likes to see that when hes about to drop a bucket of money on a player soon to be past his prime
If I were the Yankees I would give Jeter three options:
A) He accepts a 1 yr/30 million (total) deal with the subtext that we'd make the season about him, the pursuit of 3000 hits and he could retire and join ownership after the season.
B) He takes a 2 year/20 million (total) deal with plenty of performance bonuses. Similar to the first deal.
C) He takes a 3 year/24 million (total) deal with a 4th year option and he accepts that if his numbers are down next year he is going to be benched; moved out of position, or hitting at the bottom of the order and he should help quell any complaints from the press/fans.
…The way I see it, the Yankees should make it plain to Jeter that they are willing to give him free cash for everything he's done, but they won't spend years dealing with his ego and pride as he declines and takes up a roster spot. Their ultimatum should force Jeter to choose between a lot of money in a short period of time where he goes out on top, or a little money for the opportunity to play another 3+ years of major league baseball as a league average complimentary piece.
I would offer him 3 yrs at $8M per, with a boatload of incentives that could push the salary to double or more depending on plate appearances, league leading, average, hits, all-star appearance, etc.
If he says he can still play, this shouldn't be an issue, right?
Everyone (in their right mind) wants Jeter to go out as a Yankee, and I think that an incentives compromise is the best way forward. If he truly is washed up, then his salary wont destroy the team. If he's not, then he should have no trouble getting to the incentive levels, and in either case, Derek goes out a Yankee.
He deserves a minor league deal with an invitation to camp to compete for the utility IF role with Ramiro Pena. He's a slap hitter with declining speed, a defensive liability, doesn't get on base and doesn't hit for power. Best case for the Yankees is him leaving to go play 2B for the Dodgers.
Jeter isn't going to kill the payroll. I say 3 yrs/$52M. As long as Posada is gone after next season. He's completely useless and we have some talent coming up behind him (Montero/Romine)
NapLajoieonSteroids said…
If I were the Yankees I would give Jeter three options:
A) He accepts a 1 yr/30 million (total) deal with the subtext that we'd make the season about him, the pursuit of 3000 hits and he could retire and join ownership after the season."
This is the one he should take – and then not retire and he could get a 3 year deal for 8million for some other team as a DH or 2b since Jeter is grossly overrated as a shortstop not getting to many balls most other shortstops get to in their sleep.
I hope the Yanks give him a 6 year 120 million deal or longer and higher value – it will help the rest of the teams in the AL to have the yanks wasting some money at Short stop for a player not as good as Scutaro offensively and certainly not as good defensively.
GIVE JETER FOR 2011/2012 A 2 YEAR $20,000,000 A YEAR PLAYER/PLAYING CONTRACT WITH A CLAUSE FOR JETER TO BECOME , FOR AN ADDITIONAL 5 YEARS , A YANKEE ORGANIZATION EMPLOYEE AFTER HIS 2012 PLAYING YEAR –SERVICE CONTRACT–LIKE REGGIE JACSON ETC BUT MORE VISIBLE DAY TO DAY AND MORE AS THE PUBLIC PR FACE FOR THE YANKEES AND MLB–DURING THAT TIME RETIRE HIS NUMBER, GIVE HIM A DAY AND SIT BACK AND CHEER HIM AND THE YANKEES WHEN HE GOES INTO HALL OF FAME! AS AN ASIDE DUMP POSADA AFTER NEXT YEAR, WHAT A LIBILITY!!!
you all forget that just a short while ago Jeter was a MVP runnerup with a 334 BA. How can everyone believe that a man can get old and useless in a few months
It's not just his performance. Jeter has a big fan base (many of whom are not even Yankee fans) that exists regardless of that, and that translates into ticket and merchandise sales. Combine that with his performance and $20-25 mill a year is probably what he'll get.
2 years $20,000,000 sounds like a good deal for Jeter. Which means they will offer him 3 years for $50,000,000. Why? I have no idea.
He will get paid not only for the past but because it is a good business move, wherever you go you see #2 and that is a cash cow. I see 20 Mil 4 to 5 years and he will earn it.
Derek Jeter is the "FACE" of the Yankees. Due to his accomplishments over the years. He has surpassed and/or will break many,many Yankee records.He deserves at least the same 2.6 mil. as his current contract, for a minimum of 3 yrs.
plus "HIS" option for yrs. 4&5!!! To put him in the same catagory as Scutaro, shows peoples lack of intelligence! Just as the "BOSSES" son showed no intelligence in re-signing A-HOLE for all that money! While Derek Jeter does not have A-HOLE's power, he produces more for the team than A-HOLE ever will. A-HOLE is NOT a clutch hitter. Very rarely does he drive in an important run, he will NOT take-out a fielder on a D.P. he'll veer right to the outfield rather than slide. Players like Jeter, Gardner, Swisher & Gunderson go in hard EVERY TIME! In fact Gardner & Swisher are more clutch in the few years they are here than A-HOLE has been in his 5+ yrs., other then the 2009 W.S., A-HOLE hasn't done anything to earn his PAYCHECK!!!
Derek Jeter is worth 10 times more than A-HOLE_
but will never get it! To compare him to Scutaro,
FUGGABOUDDIT!!!
I highly doubt it would have much impact on Jeter's position on the matter, but the Yankees should show him the numbers on Pettitte and Rivera, two "true" Yankees who have, with the exception of Pettitte's stint in Houstin, played their entire careers in the Bronx. Both are aging, both are making between $12-15 million. That's more than reasonable.
The front office should also present the bigger picture during negotiations. If Jeter is truly a team player and truly cares about winning, he'd recognize that taking a pay cut frees up other assets that the Yankees can spend on other players and bolster the roster.
Yanks can overpay Jeter by 25 million a year without a tiny dent to their bottom line. And as a business decision it makes a lot of sense. (Face, Marketability, etc.)
Just look at the dollars they WASTE every year on what might be (Pavano and Brown come to mind).
The real tough job is not going to be negotiating salary with them (kind of like asking for sand in the desert) The tough job is going to be getting him to step aside from the position.
Best case would be a voluntary shift to left field, he still has enough speed, can track fly balls as well as any outfielder, and has a strong arm. Maybe in a platoon situation splitting time at DH, a move back to 2nd in the lineup (has NEVER had an issue laying down a bunt to move a runner).
The hard bottom line is, who are the Yankees bidding against? If he goes to free-agency, who is going to pick him up and what are they going to offer?
I think a two year deal is reasonable for any 36 year old. I think you want to load the deal with incentives so if he has a year like 2009 he gets 20 million plus, if he has a year like 2010 he gets 10 million.
give him what ever he wants so he retires a yankee he is the class of baseball one of the best shortstops to ever play the game
September 18, 2010
Derek Jeter should retire because he is really hurting the Yankee playoff chances getting into the World Series; he is not younger as a leadoff hitter. Would be better of receiving a retirement check and hanging up his spikes. Enjoyed the way he play shortstop.
Barry
I would offer Jeter 8M/YR for 2 Years with a number of incentives. He he chooses to be a hard head I would offer him 15M/YR for 2 years with a number of penalty clauses.
The CBA is quite flawed right now allowing the Yankees to pay their players based upon the revenue they bring in, rather then the production they provide. Alex Rodriguez will pay off his own contract in merchandising just by wearing the pinstripes.
Once the CBA is renegotiated in 2012 (which is not going to stand as is), MLB is going to put itself in a very rough negotiating spot by allowing these $15+ million contracts to players over long periods of time. Teams like the Sox have a farm system to pull players from should they have to reduce payroll. However, the Yanks have depleted their farm system for the most part in trades and by signing Type-A free agents, forfeiting them first round "sure thing" draft picks. The Yankees have failed to sell high on any of these prospects either, which begs people to think that they simply don't care.
Until the CBA is renegotiated, Jeter will get the revenue he brings in. I think $22-25MM over 4 years. Honestly, anything less would throw off their pattern and MLB would notice that something was up such as providing a front office guarantee to a current ballplayer. Yes, Mike. This is against the current CBA.
And the comparison to Scutaro is right on if you break it down by the numbers this season. Scutaro is more likely to repeat his 2010 numbers then Jeter is simply because Scutaro is not just younger, but fresher. He doesn't have close to 20 full seasons of baseball under his belt. Older players you must pay for what you believe they will provide in the future.
This is why I laugh at people who don't think the Sox will pick up Ortiz's option. How many players making $12.5 or less can put up 30 HR and a .900 OPS? Adam Dunn is the only other name that comes to mind besides Bautista who is still under team control I believe. And after this breakout season, likely Dunn will see a more friendly paycheck in 2011.
We all love the Jete, But you don't pay some ome for what the did in the past.I say $12mil 3 years his contract loaded with bonus' and many incentives. If indeed this was an off year He would be compensated in accordance with the incentives in the contract.. Promising a future ownership would be as stated a thought to be considered. He is still a fan favorite but his performance this season has been unsettling.. Could it be his upcoming marriage that's on his mind? We'll probably never know.
The fairest and most accurate way to pay a player is year to year. This is especially true for a 36 year old shortstop coming off his worse offensive season. Of course he'll get a premium, like Posada and others before him, just for being a Yankee.
He should get a 1 year deal for 10-12 million. Let him get his 3,000 hits as a shortstop and proceed from there. David B.
To ignore the marketing aspect of Jeter is to ensure failure in the negotiating process. The Yankees don't want to lose Jeter, so they will certainly have to offer him more than a Marco Scutaro-type contract, because even if there are those who don't believe Jeter has any marketing or financial value to the Yankees and the YES network (unlike others I'll leave that decision to the Yankees who actually can quantify this better than bloggers), he will almost certanly have marketing value (read that as in generating real $$$, or have you all forgotten this is a business?) to other teams who are trying to put people in the seats and would love to have the most recognizable player in the game shoot for 3,000 hits playing for their team. Yes, I can see Detroit bringing home their native son to play SS for the Tigers, as just one example.
So understanding that Derek Jeter is not Marco Scutaro will be important in any negotiations. To assume differently is to ensure bad negotiations.
As for what they'll pay him, I'd rather they go higher on the dollar value, with a shorter-term contract. I don't really care if they pay him $20 million a year for two or three years. I'd rather see that than a lower annual amount for a longer period of time.
Hi Anon @2:57am,
I respectfully disagree. Jeter and the Yankees need each other. While the Yankees don't want to lose Jeter, Jeter also needs the Yankees. No other team in baseball would ever even consider paying a 36-year-old shortstop with severely declining skills the $20M/year he'll presumably want. The Yankees will be negotiating against themselves.
I don't mean to completely disregard to perceived marketing value Derek brings, but I think it's probably a lot less than people think. No one cares about Derek Jeter getting his 3,000th hit in a Detroit Tigers uniform. Derek and the Yankees both know this.
We all know Derek and the Yankees will reach some sort of mutual agreement — both sides have too much to lose otherwise, and the Yankees in particular don't have anything close to an adequate replacement.
The whole point of this exercise was to show that it'd be amazing if Derek were able to put his ego aside and realize he's not worth the dollar amount he thinks he is, which would also enable the Yankees to spend more money upgrading elsewhere.
Very well said, Larry. Plus those posting responses should try to keep in mind the template which we followed. There is a BIG difference in what we would personally prefer* the Yanks pay Jeter and what we predict* the Yanks will actally pay Jeter. We were all fairly similar in this regard. The point, as Larry noted, was to try and evaluate what any other team might consider if they went through this negotiating process when trying to determine fair market value.
Even if Jeter was as valuable as many here make him out to be, more quality players are always better than just one quality player. More prudent contracts help enable this line of thinking.