Hector Noesi, Right-handed Starting Pitcher
Ranked 4th best Yankee Prospect
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | ERA | G | GS | GF | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 19 | Yankees | Rk | 1.29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0.857 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 14.1 | 11.00 |
| 2007 | 20 | Charleston | A | 4.50 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20.0 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 1.650 | 11.2 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 1.38 |
| 2008 | 21 | 2 Teams | Rk-A- | 3.33 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 48.2 | 43 | 23 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 55 | 2 | 1.089 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 10.2 | 5.50 |
| 2008 | 21 | Yankees | Rk | 3.65 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 24.2 | 23 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 1.054 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 8.00 |
| 2008 | 21 | Staten Island | A- | 3.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 24.0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 1.125 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 11.6 | 4.43 |
| 2009 | 22 | 2 Teams | A-A+ | 2.92 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 117.0 | 96 | 42 | 38 | 6 | 15 | 118 | 1 | 0.949 | 7.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 9.1 | 7.87 |
| 2009 | 22 | Charleston | A | 2.38 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 75.2 | 62 | 24 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 0.965 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 7.09 |
| 2009 | 22 | Tampa | A+ | 3.92 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 41.1 | 34 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 0.919 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 8.7 | 10.00 |
| 2010 | 23 | 3 Teams | AA-A+-AAA | 3.20 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 160.1 | 148 | 61 | 57 | 11 | 28 | 153 | 5 | 1.098 | 8.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 5.46 |
| 2010 | 23 | Tampa | A+ | 2.72 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 43.0 | 35 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 53 | 2 | 0.953 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 11.1 | 8.83 |
| 2010 | 23 | Trenton | AA | 3.10 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 98.2 | 90 | 37 | 34 | 7 | 18 | 86 | 2 | 1.095 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 7.8 | 4.78 |
| 2010 | 23 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | AAA | 4.82 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18.2 | 23 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1.446 | 11.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 3.50 |
| 5 Seasons | 3.16 | 78 | 59 | 4 | 353.0 | 317 | 137 | 124 | 26 | 62 | 348 | 8 | 1.074 | 8.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 8.9 | 5.61 | |||
| A (2 seasons) | 2.82 | 22 | 16 | 0 | 95.2 | 87 | 34 | 30 | 5 | 19 | 89 | 0 | 1.108 | 8.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 8.4 | 4.68 | |||
| Rk (2 seasons) | 3.13 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 31.2 | 28 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 1.011 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 9.9 | 8.75 | |||
| A+ (2 seasons) | 3.31 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 84.1 | 69 | 32 | 31 | 6 | 10 | 93 | 3 | 0.937 | 7.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 9.9 | 9.30 | |||
| AA (1 season) | 3.10 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 98.2 | 90 | 37 | 34 | 7 | 18 | 86 | 2 | 1.095 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 7.8 | 4.78 | |||
| A- (1 season) | 3.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 24.0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 1.125 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 11.6 | 4.43 | |||
| AAA (1 season) | 4.82 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18.2 | 23 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1.446 | 11.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 3.50 | |||
There are a lot of really good reasons to like Hector Noesi. Chief among them is his picture-perfect K/BB rates. Take a look at them, because they are a thing of beauty. A career 5.61 K/BB. 1.6 BB/9. 8.9 K/9. He controls the strike zone like no other Yankee prospect since the days of Phil Hughes. He has slowly built up his innings count in a way not to damage his arm, but to adequately prepare him for a MLB workload. His scouting report is positive across the board, if often unspectacular: a low 90s fastball with some cut to it, an average curveball, and an average-to-above-average changeup. He puts it all together with excellent command, control, and poise on the mound.
Noesi is never going to be an ace. He doesn’t have amazing stuff, and isn’t going to get any better at this point in his career. His K rates didn’t hold up so well in his (admittedly, first crack at) promotion to Double-A and Triple-A. Still, he remained effective and didn’t increase his walk rate. The best case scenario for Noesi is that he ends up being roughly equal to James Shields. But even if he doesn’t make it that far, he should be a useful pitcher in the back end of the Yankee rotation.
But the real question for any Yankee starting prospect is how? How will Hector Noesi break in to a win-now rotation? I think that he is pretty well positioned. Noesi is on the 40-man roster, and will start 2011 in Triple-A. He will likely compete with Ivan Nova and possibly David Phelps for the top spot on the team’s depth chart. From there, the Yankees will demand immediate average or better pitching from Noesi. I think he’s capable of quickly translating his skills to the majors. At the very least, he’ll throw strikes, eat innings, and keep the team in games. A guy like Ivan Nova is vulnerable to charges of taxing the bullpen (with short appearances) or the potential for blow-outs. I think that risk is diminished with Noesi – its part of what makes him so steady.
I ranked Noesi at #4 – ahead of high ceiling prospects like Andrew Brackman, Delin Betances, and ahead of the more experienced Ivan Nova – because I believe he’s a slam dunk to be a major league pitcher. His skills translate really well to the majors. He doesn’t have junk stuff, and he knows how to use it. He’s healthy. He’s in a good position to crack a rotation. I think that there are some concerns – out pitches, control – for Nova, and plenty of them for Brackman and Betances – to warrant this placement. The Yankees might offer him as trade bait, or they might give him a chance in New York.
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12 Responses to Looking at Hector Noesi
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TIQ IQ
He is going to make a good reliever. I like his ability to come into a game and get a K while not walking anyone. He does not have a good enough GO/AO ration to start for the Yankees.
Sure, that’s not a bad fall back. But the man has starters skills. GO/AO, in my opinion, is a bit of an overrated statistic. Good MLB pitchers really are all over the map with GO/AO ratio.
I agree that Noesi has the abiltity to start with the kind of control he has over the strike zone he already has a major advantage over a guy like Joba Chamberlain when competing for the job, I wouldn’t hand him the 5th starter job breaking camp next year but I definitely see him being able to pitch in that 3-5 spot in the back of the rotation with out the Yankees worrying about having to pay a veteran for the same production.
I think EJ has it about right. The Yankees see three pitching prospects as having a very high upside — Betances, Brackman, and Banuelos. None of them might fulfill that expectation, but if even one does the organization will have done its job in the current crop of AAA/AA/A+ pitchers. I expect the Yankees to give them time to develop and consider dealing them only for a true impact player.
The next tier contains the useful “chips” — Noesi, Nova, Phelps, Warren, Stoneburner, and maybe one or two others. All will likely pitch in the majors (assuming health), but none will be an ace. So they may compete for the #5 starter role, move to the bullpen, or help bring back needed talent in a trade. Put another way, they all have value to the organization, but I won’t shed tears if they are dealt. And some surely will be.
Yeah, I think thats the nice part about having a surplus. Your post made me think of something very important. Noesi, Nova, Phelps, and Warren all have the potential to be good enough to pitch in the Yankees rotation. The Yankees need to have a pretty high standard to compete in the AL East every year, but these guys definitely to some extent fulfill that standard. However, the Yankee rotation can’t take all of them. They probably can’t even take two. A #5 starter for the Yankees may be as good as a #2 starter for the Cubs or a #1 starter for the Pirates.
The upside? With so many guys who are going to be at AA/AAA next season competing for that spot (Lump Brackman in to this group too, really), then we get to pick the best of the lot. It really increases the Yankees chances of having a big competitive advantage in the back of their rotation.
Guys like Banuelos, Betances, and maybe Brackman are playing a different game. Sure, they may be able to crack the rotation as the worst guy there. But they could also take the place of a Cliff Lee free agent signing, or fill in for a maddeningly inconsistent A.J. Burnett. I don’t think that the Yankees will ever think about Hector Noesi as their Game 2 ALDS starter, but they definitely could picture Manuel Banuelos there one day.
At the end of the day we have used Sergio Mitre, Dustin Mosley and Ivan Nova as starters this year for one reason or another (usually injury but inconsistency too) and I think Noesi can preform as well as any of them and there really is no reason to expect otherwise. I also think he has a better projection for the rotation than Aceves did when he was first pitching well, EJ is right he won’t pitch game 2 of any series but he is the type of guy you could possibly need in the back end of your rotation to get you to that point for a couple years to come.
His “stuff” reminds me of Ian Kennedy’s. So if anything maybe he’s trade bait…just look how awesome Kennedy is tearing up the NL!
Note: He’s got better fastball velocity than Kennedy.
That is what I like about Noesi his fastball plays higher than Kennedy or Aceves did when they were coming through which bodes well for him actually making it to the rotation but with the success we have had with guys in the pen that is a fall back.
Also we’ll see how long Ian Kennedy is “awesome” (and for the record I think that is going to far for someone with a 4.30+ FIP) he’s done well but I’m not willing to call him more than what I thought he was when he left.
If (when?) Cliff Lee signs, there probably isn’t enough money in the budget to bring Pettitte back. In which case, perhaps the fifth pitching slot is left open for the best of Noesi, Nova, and Phelps. If these guys falter, the Killer B’s are right behind them and perhaps would be mid-season replacements.
I think you’re right. In fact, I think that I will write a post about it.
Would the Yankees really turn Pettitte down though? If he told them he wanted to play and only wanted to play for the Yankees would they really make him retire or play for someone else over what 5 or 6 million with incentives especially after the year he has had? I could see not having the money or need to ask him to come back but if he is at the door step can you really force his hand like that? The guy obviously has something left in the tank and the competitive spirit is something you can see with the guy still. This isn’t Mirko Cro Cop trying to get paid and nothing else he really still has fire in the belly.