Hector Noesi, Right-handed Starting Pitcher
|A (2 seasons)||2.82||22||16||0||95.2||87||34||30||5||19||89||0||1.108||8.2||0.5||1.8||8.4||4.68|
|Rk (2 seasons)||3.13||14||2||3||31.2||28||12||11||2||4||35||1||1.011||8.0||0.6||1.1||9.9||8.75|
|A+ (2 seasons)||3.31||17||17||0||84.1||69||32||31||6||10||93||3||0.937||7.4||0.6||1.1||9.9||9.30|
|AA (1 season)||3.10||17||16||1||98.2||90||37||34||7||18||86||2||1.095||8.2||0.6||1.6||7.8||4.78|
|A- (1 season)||3.00||5||5||0||24.0||20||12||8||5||7||31||1||1.125||7.5||1.9||2.6||11.6||4.43|
|AAA (1 season)||4.82||3||3||0||18.2||23||10||10||1||4||14||1||1.446||11.1||0.5||1.9||6.8||3.50|
There are a lot of really good reasons to like Hector Noesi. Chief among them is his picture-perfect K/BB rates. Take a look at them, because they are a thing of beauty. A career 5.61 K/BB. 1.6 BB/9. 8.9 K/9. He controls the strike zone like no other Yankee prospect since the days of Phil Hughes. He has slowly built up his innings count in a way not to damage his arm, but to adequately prepare him for a MLB workload. His scouting report is positive across the board, if often unspectacular: a low 90s fastball with some cut to it, an average curveball, and an average-to-above-average changeup. He puts it all together with excellent command, control, and poise on the mound.
Noesi is never going to be an ace. He doesn’t have amazing stuff, and isn’t going to get any better at this point in his career. His K rates didn’t hold up so well in his (admittedly, first crack at) promotion to Double-A and Triple-A. Still, he remained effective and didn’t increase his walk rate. The best case scenario for Noesi is that he ends up being roughly equal to James Shields. But even if he doesn’t make it that far, he should be a useful pitcher in the back end of the Yankee rotation.
But the real question for any Yankee starting prospect is how? How will Hector Noesi break in to a win-now rotation? I think that he is pretty well positioned. Noesi is on the 40-man roster, and will start 2011 in Triple-A. He will likely compete with Ivan Nova and possibly David Phelps for the top spot on the team’s depth chart. From there, the Yankees will demand immediate average or better pitching from Noesi. I think he’s capable of quickly translating his skills to the majors. At the very least, he’ll throw strikes, eat innings, and keep the team in games. A guy like Ivan Nova is vulnerable to charges of taxing the bullpen (with short appearances) or the potential for blow-outs. I think that risk is diminished with Noesi – its part of what makes him so steady.
I ranked Noesi at #4 – ahead of high ceiling prospects like Andrew Brackman, Delin Betances, and ahead of the more experienced Ivan Nova – because I believe he’s a slam dunk to be a major league pitcher. His skills translate really well to the majors. He doesn’t have junk stuff, and he knows how to use it. He’s healthy. He’s in a good position to crack a rotation. I think that there are some concerns – out pitches, control – for Nova, and plenty of them for Brackman and Betances – to warrant this placement. The Yankees might offer him as trade bait, or they might give him a chance in New York.
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