How good has Ivan Nova been?

So, how well has the rookie actually done?

Judging by the numbers, fairly well. I’ve put a few Yankee pitchers up there to contextualize Nova’s performance, which, by the way, is a small sample size both in terms of starts and innings – don’t draw too much from this. But the numbers are encouraging.

In the face of so few innings pitched, I’m looking directly at Nova’s strikeout and walk rates to better understand how reliable his ERA, FIP and xFIP are, or aren’t. Based on the numbers, he may actually be a reliable big league starter in the making. If he were walking a lot of guys it could be argued that he’s been getting lucky, that the big inning is coming to correct his numbers. If he weren’t striking anyone out, it could be argued that batters will figure him out once the scouting reports mature. But he’s doing neither. In fact, his totals shape up pretty well in comparison to the big guns up there.

That means that while Nova’s ERA may be artificially low, his FIP and xFIP may be at least approaching figures that are truly indicative of his potential. An ERA of 4.00 over the course of a full season would make Ivan a slightly better than average pitcher, and a valuable asset.

It is surprising that Nova has gone so completely under the radar, compared to other Yankee prospects (Montero, Jesus). But this reminds me of some talk that was taking place when Montero was on the trading block. A lot of analysts were saying that part of what has made the Yankees so dangerous of late is that not only is the big league club performing, but for the first time in a while the Yankees have become an organization with a talented farm system. Nova reflects that. All Yankee prospects won’t fare this well during their first stint in the Bigs, but it speaks both to Nova’s talents and to the talent in the entire Yankee organization that a pitcher of such quality was available internally.