Francisco Cervelli has long been the whipping boy for Yankee fans. It’s not really his fault: he’s a backup catcher, and good hitting backup catchers are hard to come by unless you’re the Cincinnati Reds, so perhaps the biggest problem with Cervelli is that he’s gotten so much playing time this season. Cervelli’s year has been quite the rollercoaster, a study in how shifts in BABIP can affect the results. By playing a little arbitrary start and endpoint game, we can see how his season has been divided into very good and very bad.
Start of season to May 31st: 120 PAs, .320/.388/.400, 0.364 BABIP
June 1st to August 27: 145 PAs, .178/.254/.217, 0.215 BABIP
August 29 to present: 47 PAs, .441/.587/.529, 0.517 BABIP
The simplest and easiest answer here to explain his recent surge is to assume that he’s just getting more good fortune on balls in play like he did when the season started. In all probability, this is the best explanation. But in this morning’s comments leftylarry suggested that Cervelli had made some changes to his batting stance:
“Anybody else notice that Cervelli is no longer leaning his head forward with his back (right ) shoulder up to high?
LONG finally figured it out and lately he’s hitting the ball again PRETTY well. He won’t get HIT in the head now anymore either as he can see the ball earlier and pick up the rotation and velocity better.”
I’m always interested in alternative explanations, so we’ll examine his batting stance over the past few months after the jump.
Here is Francisco Cervelli on June 11, 2010 against Houston in Yankee Stadium, sporting a low crouch:
On June 20th, his stance looks largely the same:
It’s the same on July 5th, 2010 in Oakland:
Here he is a month later, on August 10, 2010 (yes, it’s sad that there are no offensive highlight clips available on MLB.com for Cervelli between July 5th and August 10th):
If there’s a difference between the first three photos and this one, it’s hard to say. It’s possible that his left elbow is an inch or two lower. Here’s Cervelli on August 29, 2010. He had four hits in this game:
Really, up to this point everything looks largely the same. Here’s Cervelli in Texas on September 10:
It could be me, but it looks like Cervelli is standing taller in the box. Here he is on September 25 in New York:
Finally, here is Cervelli last night in Toronto:
In July and August, Cervelli’s stance was a low squat like Albert Pujols. This was also the only thing Cervelli has ever shared in common with Albert Pujols. In the more recent clips though he seems to be standing a little taller, almost like Derek Jeter. I created a gif to make the juxtaposition easier to see:
Unlike the commenter, I can’t pick up any difference in his right (rear) shoulder in any of these images. To me, it looks more like Cervelli is standing a bit taller in the box. He’s not bent at the waist as much and has brought his rear end in a bit. It’s possible that the slight difference is enabling him to see the ball better and attack it more quickly. It’s also possible that this is just another example of random variation in BABIP. Even if it’s a combination of both, an improved approach and better luck, expectations should still be kept low. There’s nothing in Cervelli’s minor league track record to suggest that he has the bat to be an average major league catcher. If he’s used properly, as a true backup and not an almost-regular, and if he’s used especially against left-handed pitchers, then he can be a serviceable backup and useful bench piece. And if standing taller in the box helps him see the ball a bit better, then that’s just the icing on the cake.
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21 Responses to Cervelli Stance Change
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TIQ IQ
Cervelli’s best asset is that he now has MLB experience and is cheap with options left. The team controls his future so next year in AAA is very possible if the Yankees want to start the season with Montero.
#cured?
oh i like. imagine if he actually hits a home run(!)
There are 9 ML catchers with enough PAs to qualify on fangraphs. #5 (average) is Matt Wieters with a woba of .306. Cervelli is at .311 in his first season with significant playing time. He has a better woba than Wieters, AJ P, Yadier Molina, Kurt Suzuki and Jason Kendall. He is pretty much an average hitting ML catcher. Maybe the average ML catcher does not have the bat to be an average ML catcher but they play nonetheless. Not everyone can be Mauer or Posada.
Maybe I slightly undersold him. I mean, the counterargument to that is that he’s not Matt Wieters and he never, ever, double-ever will be. Matt Wieters has a career MiL tripleslash of something like .340/.430/570. Cervelli’s is .273/.367/.380. AJ P is on the wrong end of the aging curve and basically getting close to the end of his career, Yadier Molina is a defensive god known for his skill behind the plate and emphatically not for his bat, Kurt Suzuki had a down year and had wOBAs of .322, .321 and .320 before this year’s campaign, and Jason Kendall is a black hole. The point is that Cervelli doesn’t have the bat+defensive skills to be an average major league regular catcher. I doubt you’ll find anyone who thinks that he is. And thats ok. Average major league catchers are incredibly incredibly valuable. I have to think the Yankees would do backflips if Austin Romine ever turns into an average major league catcher. But that’s the point I tried to make in my opening paragraph and in the conclusion – he is what he is, and backup catchers are necessary parts of every team. As long as he’s cheap and employed properly, he has value to the Yankees. But let’s not get out of hand with projection and start comp-ing him to guys with bigger upside or better track records.
I compared him to the 9 guys that came up on fangraphs. I did not pick and choose. You can say this one is this and that one is that but at the end of the day, those are the starting catchers that qualify. If you look at catchers with a minimum of 300 PAs, Cervelli is 16th for woba out of 29. Again, pretty much dead in the middle.
Defense is a tricky thing to blame Cervelli for as he catches AJ most of the time and AJ is wild and can’t hold runners. I’m not so sure Cervelli’s defense isn’t average or slightly below if he catches a “normal” pitcher most of the time.
Also, the guy is 24, missed a season of development and is in his first full year in the majors. He can get a bit better.
I’m not saying he’s the next great Yankee catcher but I think that you have to lower your expectations for the position. The average catcher is not a great hitter.
“but I think that you have to lower your expectations for the position. The average catcher is not a great hitter. ”
There’s a difference between an average MLB catcher, which would presumably include all backups, and those catchers good enough to be considered “starting catchers” in baseball. There’s nothing in Cervelli’s pedigree, minor or major, to suggest he could be a starter. He’s a backup. That’s fine. There’s nothing wrong with that. But he’s not more than that.
No – read the post – I looked at catchers with 300 PAs. Those are not backups. Those guys start at least around half the time. You can argue that they don’t have pedigrees to start or are past their prime or before their prime or whatever. You can argue that their teams are not happy that they are starting or should not be. But these are the average catchers who are starting.
I have no beef with anything you’ve said other than the word average. I think that what you really mean is good or pretty good. And I agree that it’s highly unlikely that Cervelli will ever be a good catcher. He doesn’t have enough power.
Obviously we define “average” differently. You’re picking out catchers with lower 2010 wOBAs than Cervelli and using it as a way to show that there have been plenty of catchers getting playing time that have been worse than Cervelli in 2010, and I’m approaching it from a long-term projectability and scouting standpoint, which is why I took the time to discuss each of the catchers that you listed. From my perspective, Cervelli as a long-term option is a below-average ML catcher.
I would also say that my definition is more subjective, and therefore harder to nail down, and therefore more infuriating.
I think that we agree – and use the word average differently.
His hands are higher and the barrel is also more vertical. Previously, the barrel was more parallel to the ground. Balance in his set up looks better too, with his chest more upright. When he was hunched over, his weight was a little to close to his toes. Now that he’s tall with his upper body, his weight is a little bit better distributed on the balls of his feet.
Haven’t had a chance to watch him swing it, but those are the surface changes to his swing.
That’s good analysis. I was hoping to hear from someone with more scouting experience. One thing to note is that the barrel of the bat moved around a lot, so it depended entirely on when I did the screenshot. I probably could have gotten it horizontal for the “new stance” as well.
I stand by what I said.
Earlier his right shoulder was ever so higher and his head tilted down and forward.I pointed it out to many people and knowledgeable people with a baseball background agreed.
It’s ever so slightly different now but he can see it better now.
How did I even notice there was a change?
Look at the difference in the crease of the uniform around the lat area from early on to now.
Yes, he’s standing up better and of course that changes the angle of his head in realtionship to the ground.
It’s no longer tilted downward, he can see it better.He shouldn’t get beaned that often either now.
@matcohen – just wanted to say thanks for the input. I understand what you’re getting at with your definition of average and I think there’s a lot of value in this approach. At very least, it made me examine my approach more closely.
Word. Thanks for the thanks.
All very interesting, thanks. I would like to contribute that Stephen’s piece demonstrates that BAPIP is a trendspotting tool, rather than an indication of favor among batting gods: here, it is serial, not random. Likely cause and effect, as in well-hit vs. dribblers or bloopers.
Very nicely put.
Eh, I can see the angle of his shoulders change along with his back. Earlier in the season his front shoulder is dipped and he is leaning towards the plate. In the most recent shots he is standing up straighter and the line across his shoulders is more parallel to the ground than early in the season. Its not as visible focused just on his back shoulder, you have to look at both shoulders in relation to the other.
Yeah maybe so. What we really need is some high def. video or stills, and the ability to zoom in with the image getting pixelated.