Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News
On the heels of Ivan Nova’s impressive MLB debut as a starter, questions arose about how he will be worked in with the other starters. We found out right away that Javier Vazquez would be skipped a turn, but there was also the lingering question of how the Yanks will manage Phil Hughes’ innings this year. Yesterday, Mark Fiensand of the New York Daily News got some answers.
Tuesday, Joe Girardi announced that Vazquez (9-9, 5.05 ERA) would be skipped again this Sunday, but unlike the situation nearly four months ago, there’s no guarantee that the 13-year veteran will reclaim his job.
Rookie Ivan Nova, who impressed Girardi Monday night against the Blue Jays, will start on Sunday, effectively replacing Vazquez in the rotation for the immediate future.
“The last time we skipped Javy a start, it kick-started him and got him on a roll,” Girardi said. “I’m not saying what we’ll do after Sunday, but maybe it will help him physically.”
Girardi wouldn’t commit to anything for the following turn through the rotation, leaving Vazquez’s future in limbo. The manager hinted that Vazquez could be used to help shorten Phil Hughes’ starts, as the Yankees continue to monitor the 24-year-old’s innings count.
“We’ll be flexible with Hughes as we’re moving down the stretch here,” Girardi said. “(The Vazquez/Nova move) might give us an opportunity to shorten his game a lot one time or even to skip him.”
Vazquez was predictably upset by the news, although after posting a 6.69 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break and an 8.10 mark in four August starts, it didn’t come as a huge shock.
“I’m not surprised, just disappointed,” Vazquez said. “I’m not doing my job.”
Vazquez will be available in the bullpen tonight, not so coincidentally on the same night that Hughes is slated to make his next start. Hughes has thrown 140-2/3 innings, roughly 35-40 short of the reported limit of 175-180.
I’ll assume that they’ll put Phil on an 80 pitch per start limit, which is similar to what they’re doing with Dellin Betances right now and how they handle most of their young arms in the minors as they approach their innings limits. That means he’ll get about 5 innings per start, which limits his workload but still gives him an opportunity to get a Win. Hughes’ turn comes up another 6 times over the remaining 36 games left in the season. Assuming they skip him once or twice, that puts him at 160-165 IP for the 2010 season. Below his target, and leaving him room to stay in the rotation come October.
I support the move. I like that they’re reducing his workload this way at the end of the season. This is far preferable to the disastrous Joba Rules of 2008, which admittedly was a result of Chien Ming Wang going down for the season and a lack of reliable rotation options. When a young pitcher approaches an innings high, he’s in uncharted territory. Very often they will run out of gas as they approach the finish line, which at best reduces their effectiveness and at worst can result in injury. This should keep Phil strong for October, where he figures to get at least one start in each round of the playoffs.
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27 Responses to The Plan for Nova, Hughes and Vazquez gets clearer
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Not that anyone cares, but this is treating Javier Vazquez like a 2010 version of Jeff Weaver. A kid from Scranton makes one good start and he loses his turn in the rotation. We all know they weren’t going to bring him back next year, almost certainly won’t offer him arbitration, but now I’m beginning to wonder if we’ll ever see him again. Hughes gets us to the 5th and they can plug in Aceves after September 1st.
I want no part of shortened outings, it is exactly what they did with Joba. Just skip him twice, should put him at 165-170 going into the playoffs.
Actually, Joba had these aborted 3 inning starts, where he was supposedly building his arm back up each time out. That was only done because they really had no one else to start. Also, check this out:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=hugheph01&t=p&year=2010
He already had a rough stretch in July where his fastball was down and they decided to skip him. If you recall, his first start back from the layoff was awful, where he had no command of his fastball whatsoever. Again, this is what they do with all of their young pitchers in the minors, the next tried and true option would be moving him to the bullpen. There’s something to be said for keeping a guy on his regular routine.
I would like the Yankees to have Hughes go 5 for ever start until the final 2 so he can get used to going longer since he probably will be the ## 3 guy.
It’s a good plan. I don’t think Javy will be ‘Weavered’. JoeG doesn’t tend to bury guys a la JoeT. I think we’ll be seeing a bit of a 6-man after Javy works out of the pen a few times, with him returning to the rotation. We’ll have more good arms in Sept to shorten Phranchises starts.
Good point, joe has much more of a “were all in this together” approach. Torre had the “my guys” thing.
I think an 80 pitch count limit or 5 innings would be a terrible plan and I don’t think they are going to go there. I think if they can they would take Phil out early – if the Yankees are blowing the other team out or Phil is having a bad day (usually they leave him in to try and work it out)
I think skipping Phil once should be sufficient…………..I hate skipping him, but it can’t be avoided. They should do it now so he can get himself straightened out by the time we have to face the Sox and Rays
Hughes is a different animal than Joba.Smarter and more grounded, less erratic both on and off the field than Joba.He could keep his arm loose and strong even with the 5 inning starts.
If Andy comes back strong and Nova is the real deal and becomes a cog, wonder if Hughes would go back to the PEN for the playoffs and hopefully series also.He’s a veteran at this point and could probably do either well.
Of course I’m assuming Burnett and Pettitte are pitching well at that point.
Think anyone’s rooting for a September Yankees rotation collapse more than Cliff Lee? Could add many million to whatever offer they might have in mind right now.
If Nova doesn’t work it out and Pettitte isn’t able to get back to form in September, I just hope management doesn’t panic and overwork Hughes.
look to lee’s #s since going to texas..he may lose several mil..he has to get back on track to deal strong.
If the Yankees think Lee’s performance with Texas is substandard for Lee, then it may affect an offer, but Lee still stands to benefit from a Yankees rotation collapse, which was my point.
But I think Lee’s numbers with Texas are excellent, despite his 2-4 record and 4.18 ERA.
WHIP: 1.028
SO/9: 7.9
BB/9: 0.6
In 71 innings with Texas this year, he’s given up only 68 hits and 5 walks. That’s excellent. The only troubling number I see is the 8 home runs he’s given up, but even that’s not all that bad especially for the park in Arlington.
didn’t his last start get beat up in balt Damian?
That happens. Happened to CC on Opening Day ’09, but I don’t think the Yankees have buyer’s remorse about him. Great starting pitchers don’t throw shutouts every night, and they occasionally lose to bad teams. But if you look at his numbers with Texas so far, they’re very good. Just to show you, here’s how he compares to CC over the course of each pitcher’s last nine starts:
Lee:
71 IP
68 H
5 BB
62 K
8 HR
CC:
63.2 IP
66 H
21 BB
48 K
3 HR
So CC has had more baserunners, fewer strikeouts and thrown fewer innings over his past nine starts (though that is in part due to a recen rain-shortened start) than Lee has over his last nine. The only big difference is BBs and Ks where Lee clearly has him beat, and HR where CC is well ahead of Lee. Maybe CC has been better, but not by all that much. Lee’s ERA and record do not represent how well he’s pitched.
looking at lee’s #s you would not think he had a four plus era.. can you look up how many pitches each start? CCs era has to be in the mid two’s. 87 guys on base in 63 inn. never would have thought that..i watch every game, i don’t remember him being in that much trouble. thanks for the stats.. if lee continues to struggle with a high era..does your position change or just the dollar amount you offer him.?
If you can compare lee’s own #s over the past few years at this time, then we may be able to see if somethings up. CC always starts slow, ends strong.. i believe lee also. you are pretty good with stats
Well my point is in fact that Lee really hasn’t been struggling, but I get your question. While with the Mariners this year, Lee gave up 0.4 HR per 9 innings pitched. Since joining Texas, that number has jumped up to 1.0 HR per 9 innings pitched. Neither figure represents his normal production over the past few years. In fact, beginning with his Cy Young campaign in 2007, his HR/9 has been comfortably in between the two figures. So that is what I would expect going forward this year and into the future. And because he has only pitched 9 games with Texas so far, a couple extra home runs can really make the ERA jump up a lot.
As for what dollar amount to offer him this offseason (and I’m sorry to the TYU public for this not really being related to the original post), that’s something I’ve thought a little (as I’m sure almost all Yankee fans have) but I don’t really know. But he’s far and away the best free agent pitcher going on this winter’s market, so he’s in a great negotiating position.
There is approximately a zero chance Hughes gets an 80 pitch limit on his starts. A good blog (which yours normally is) gives reasoned analysis, it doens’t just make stuff up like this post does.
Girardi said they’re looking at shortening his starts, and his current pitch limit is around 100. Also, that’s exactly what they do all the time in the minors at this point in the year.
Steve, has that not been the standard with just about everyone [100 pitches]? that should be about 7 inns. more than what want.
I think its a reasoned guess. Joe said Javy gives them the ability to cut some starts short. If they dont want to do 3 inning starts like Joba had, but limit him to 5 or so, 80-85 pitches sounds about right.
Question: with Phil due for arbitration, would you wait until after next year to try and lock him up or go year by year until he’s a FA? We know the Yanks didn’t want to extend Wang, but he was older and had a history of arm injuries. I think the Yankees look at Phil as someone they want in their rotation for a long time.
Always go year to year with pitchers. Chien Ming Wang is a great example as to why.
Shortening his stints like if the Yanks are blowing the other team out or Phil is struggling. Joe has said many times that he’s not going to remove from games where Phil is doing well just for the sake of his innings limit
You may be right, we’ll have to see how this plays out. But. I can’t see counting on a blowout, which is fairly rare.
Also, Phil does not have a pitch limit; he’s gone over 110 pitches several times.
Damian.. are you around? tonight is just the point i was trying to bring out.. cliff lee was banged around again..thats why i said lets reserve our position on him until after this year.. this guy maybe hurt, over pitched, but something is not right..he is in a critical point in his career. he can say anything hurts..his value will be suspect , i’m sure cashman will have scouts following him the rest of the way ,if not already..imagine if we made that trade and he pitched like this after giving up montero and the rest..this can turn out to be the best deal that was never made. i hope he is fine…he is a perfect fit for the yanks.. with this game his last 4 starts the era is about 9.. i feel bad for the guy..he could lose millions . remember what happened to sheets, turned down a 100mil, then got hurt..brewers caught a hugh break.. hugh concern for all yankee fans.. like to hear your opinion