Let’s play a game. Here are the stat lines for two pitchers when they were 24 years old:
Pitcher A: 210 IP, 202 hits, 66 walks, 152 strikeouts, 3.21 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.30 K/BB, 3.64 FIP.
Pitcher B: 128 IP, 119 hits, 37 walks, 110 strikeouts, 3.92 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2,6 BB/9, 2.97 K/BB, 3.87 FIP.
Pitcher A is Jon Lester. Pitcher B?
It’s a rare thing to see the Yankees to develop a starting pitcher. It takes time and patience, two currencies the Yankees rarely deal in. Somewhere in the bowels of the bullpen, Joba Chamberlain nods in agreement. Since Hughes’ injury-filled campaign in 2008, though, he’s made it easy for the Yankees. He pitched as one of the more dominant setup men in baseball in 2009 and stabilized the back end of the bullpen. This year, he converted to a starter with relative ease. There’s been no drama or injury; he has had a few bumps in the road but it’s no stretch to say that he’s been the club’s second or third best starter this year.
Tonight, Hughes will face off against the Royals in his 22nd start of the season. The fact that he has made it this far into the year is a relief for some Yankee fans who have wondered, quite legitimately, if Hughes would be the type of pitcher to make it through a full season of work. He still has a long way to go, but if everything holds steady we will see him reach around 175-180 innings this year and be prepared to start a full season of games with no innings restrictions in 2011. The idea of one of our young guys being able to go full-bore almost seems like a fantasy: fans have been hearing about innings caps and pitch counts and restrictions and rules almost constantly for the past three years with both Hughes and Chamberlain.
Yet Hughes chugs along, and for now Yankees fans can enjoy every start he makes as he creeps towards his innings cap. Hopefully no one ignores just how good Hughes has been this year, at this age, and in this role. Perhaps it will become easy for fans to forget the fact that he was just as good as Jon Lester at this age if Hughes starts to fatigue and tire under the heaviest workload of his career. But hopefully not. For me, every start for Hughes is a mini-celebration and every completed outing is a minor victory, another step in the right direction for a guy that always seemed just on the cusp of greatness “if only he could stay healthy”. I still watch every start with an odd combination of excitement and dread: happy about how good he really is but perpetually worried that he’ll crack a rib or pop a hamstring or walk off the mound with a grimace, shaking his arm. He still has a long way to go to get past the so-called “injury nexus” but there’s only one way to get there: one start a time, one inning at a time, one hard fastball or dancing cutter or deadly breaking ball at a time.
So enjoy it, and remember how far Phil Hughes has come.
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8 Responses to Happy Hughesday
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TIQ IQ
Lester’s ERA is a LOT better than Phil’s.
I’d been a huge supporter of Phil’s over the last few years, even when he was trashed by fans and pundits alike. He’s had a nice year, but I don’t see a potential #1 anymore. His secondary pitches are extremely weak, for one. What’s happened to his curve? It’s just way too inconsistent to be considered a good pitch, nevermind plus. As to the change up, I’m disappointed that he hasn’t used it more. He should have used it more at the beginning of the season, when he felt good about it coming out of ST. I’m not much into all those sabremetric stats, but his strikeout rate has diminished significantly from earlier in the season and he’s given up way too many HRs. In comparison to other young pitchers, Phil just doesn’t look “all that” to me.
Yes, Lester had a better ERA up to that point, but that is not “a LOT better than Phil’s”. It is .7 runs better, which, while significant, is no cause for panic, as Phil has a smaller sample size, 128 innings to 210. Now, with the knowledge that Lester’s ERA and FIP were better than Phil’s, take a look at the peripherals. Hughes has an extra 1.2 K/9 on Lester, and walks fewer /9, although not by as considerable a margin. Therefore, I do not feel as if it is fair to say that Lester was a much better pitcher at the same age, which is not even necessarily the same stage in their development. Phil’s secondary/offspeed stuff is still a work in progress, and next year will be his first season with absolutely no innings limit. Lester was more of a refined product at the age of 24, as he was able to put up 210 innings without cries that the Red Sox were destroying him. Just because a 24 year old is not an ace does not mean that he won’t be in a couple of years, especially if the peripherals suggest that he will be. Players typically improve as they mature.
Wow. Just wow.
This is in re: comment 1, correct?
In terms of starting pitchers it’s kind of hard to me to compare a 24 year old left hander with the abiltity to throw in the mid to high 90′s to Phil a right hander who averages 92 but can reach the mid 90′s. Even with comparable velocity the left handed pitcher has a lot more potential and more upside when throwing as hard as Lester does, for a right handed pitcher Hughes has good stuff but not blow you away stiff by any means however Lester has great stuff for a left handed pitcher and when he is on has top 2 or 3 stuff in the league from that side of the body.
Hughes has proven himself to be a valuable starter this year but I also don’t think he has shown “ace” potential people throw around all the time, when it’s all said and done Hughes will be a dialed down John Lackey and that is great for a number 3 possibly number 2 starter but I never believed he was ever going to be more than that anyway.
I think once he actually incorporates the change, he’ll make another jump. I think once he does that, he can move into the elite status so many folks have been expecting. He already is pretty dominant in stretches, and can easily become a #1. I think the large number of folks most of us trust around MLB that see him as a future ace tends to confirm that.
Sweet piece, Stephen R. I am so happy with the progess, the determination. Phil will be around to develop new pitches and to refine strategies. To Betsy: he may have been caught hanging a little curve last night, but he is commanding it generally, for strikes! Forget the plusses, look for strikes, ground balls and victories.
If Dave in MD was responding to my comment, I’d like to “wow” right back – great response. Instead of civilly explaining why he thinks Phil is some great pitcher in the making, he says makes a snarky, hollow comment. Heaven forbid that not everyone shares the opinion that Phil is an ace- in-the-making. T.O. Chris H. is right – what is so special about Phil’s stuff anyway? By the way, he didn’t strike out anyone yesterday.