Photo courtesy of the NJ.com
Everyone knows Derek Jeter is having a down year this season. When he had a similarly bad year in 2008, fans began to question if it was the beginning of the end for DJ. But his huge 09 campaign seemed to erase those doubts. Which one is it? Was 2009 one last hurrah for the captain, the outlier in a downward trend? Or is 2010 just an unlucky year for Derek and we can expect a major correction to get his numbers back where they belong? Lets walk through this and see where the numbers lead us.
Double Plays-Much has been made of his penchant for the twin killing in recent years. He’s 4th overall in the AL with 18 this year. But some of the best hitters in Baseball (Mauer 08/10, Longoria 09, Guerrero 08) appear near the top of this list annually. In his stellar 2009 campaign he was still high on this list (15th overall with 18) and in his disappointing 08 season he was 4th as well. Seems like Derek has been high on this list either way, and we’re talking about 6 plays difference between the good seasons and bad seasons. Nothing to see here, folks. But it does lead me to my next topic, which is ground balls.
GB/LD rates-Here we have something to sink our teeth in to.
| Season | Team | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | IFH% | BUH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Yankees | 2.30 | 23.9 % | 53.0 % | 23.1 % | 4.9 % | 14.8 % | 6.8 % | 62.5 % |
| 2003 | Yankees | 2.54 | 23.8 % | 54.7 % | 21.5 % | 1.2 % | 12.0 % | 6.6 % | 58.3 % |
| 2004 | Yankees | 1.47 | 19.3 % | 48.0 % | 32.7 % | 2.8 % | 13.1 % | 10.5 % | 16.7 % |
| 2005 | Yankees | 2.89 | 19.3 % | 60.0 % | 20.7 % | 2.7 % | 17.1 % | 7.5 % | 33.3 % |
| 2006 | Yankees | 3.25 | 22.3 % | 59.4 % | 18.3 % | 2.1 % | 14.7 % | 8.4 % | 33.3 % |
| 2007 | Yankees | 2.33 | 19.9 % | 56.1 % | 24.0 % | 3.9 % | 9.3 % | 9.6 % | 14.3 % |
| 2008 | Yankees | 2.45 | 17.9 % | 58.3 % | 23.8 % | 3.3 % | 9.0 % | 8.4 % | 22.2 % |
| 2009 | Yankees | 2.51 | 20.3 % | 57.0 % | 22.7 % | 0.8 % | 14.6 % | 7.1 % | 42.9 % |
| 2010 | Yankees | 4.16 | 17.0 % | 66.9 % | 16.1 % | 1.5 % | 13.4 % | 6.1 % | 66.7 % |
Here it would appear that this season Derek has resumed the downward trend that began in 2008. His GB/FB rate has soared, LD% has steadily declined since 2006 (with 09 as the outlier). His GB% has exploded this year and FB Rate has plummeted. He’s just not driving the ball like he used to. So now let’s look at his Pitch Type Values to see if there’s any clues there.
| Season | Team | wFB | wSL | wCT | wCB | wCH | wSF | wKN | wFB/C | wSL/C | wCT/C | wCB/C | wCH/C | wSF/C | wKN/C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total *
|
- – -
|
135.6
|
15.3
|
0.1
|
9.6
|
20.3
|
4.4
|
-3.8
|
0.91
|
0.52
|
0.02
|
0.58
|
1.27
|
1.70
|
-1.38
|
| 2002 | Yankees | 16.3 | -1.6 | 1.5 | -4.3 | 1.4 |
0.6
|
0.89 | -0.55 | 0.64 | -2.29 | 2.95 | 1.57 | ||
| 2003 | Yankees | 21.6 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.2 | 0.4 |
-0.4
|
1.55 | -0.64 | -0.64 | -0.92 | 1.83 | -1.17 | ||
| 2004 | Yankees | 1.6 | 9.5 | 0.0 | -2.6 | 9.5 | 0.4 |
-2.6
|
0.09 | 3.16 | 0.01 | -1.30 | 5.56 | 0.79 | -6.86 |
| 2005 | Yankees | 18.7 | 5.8 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
-1.8
|
0.98 | 1.46 | 4.58 | -0.86 | 2.12 | 2.26 | -2.97 |
| 2006 | Yankees | 19.1 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 0.7 |
1.6
|
1.07 | 1.94 | 1.34 | 1.51 | 4.22 | 3.27 | 4.67 |
| 2007 | Yankees | 17.8 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
-0.1
|
1.06 | 1.65 | -0.24 | 0.78 | 0.43 | 5.62 | -0.26 |
| 2008 | Yankees | 10.9 | -4.5 | -2.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
0.2
|
0.67 | -1.33 | -2.07 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 12.75 | 1.19 |
| 2009 | Yankees | 27.8 | -5.7 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 5.6 | -0.7 |
-0.7
|
1.61 | -1.36 | 0.45 | 3.08 | 2.65 | -2.63 | -5.56 |
| 2010 | Yankees | 1.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 2.9 | -2.3 | -1.2 |
-0.7
|
0.13 | -0.14 | -0.24 | 2.33 | -1.35 | -4.47 | -5.49 |
These numbers jump off the page at you. Even back in 04 when his FB numbers were down he had good success against the slider, which signals a change in approach. But now nothing seems to be working for him. He’s clearly getting beat on fastballs, and the only pitch he seems to be having any success with is the curve, which is an off speed offering. That’s what players who are getting old do, sit on something slow. It goes a long way to explaining why he’s hitting so many ground balls, it looks like he just can’t handle the fastball anymore and he’s making weak contact on it.
BABIP-His .311 mark for this season is the lowest it’s been since 2004, when he slugged a 2nd best .179 ISO. But this year’s .112 ISO is the lowest of any full season in his career by a good margin. Looking at his numbers, it’s obvious that he’s changed his approach many times over the course of his career. Some years hitting for more pop, others drawing more walks. But the BABIP looks to be connected to the increasing ground ball rates. Grounders are converted to outs 72% of the time, Line Drives just 26%. That’s a much more likely explanation than just bad luck.
SO and BB Rates-SO/BB rates heading in the wrong direction can often be the canary in the coal mine for aging players, signaling imminent decline. Much has been made of Derek’s low OBP this year, but his 7.8 BB% is exactly the same as it was in 07 and 08. It was even lower in 2004 (6.4%) and roughly the same in 2003 (7.9%) 2001 (8.2%) and 1998 (8.2%). Similarly, his 2010 SO rate of 15.4% is in line with recent seasons and is actually lower than his career 16.4% mark. Whatever the explanation is, this isn’t it.
O Swing%-Another damning stat for Derek, he’s swinging at more and more pitches out of the zone. This continues a trend that has been getting worse and worse annually since 2005. Deek seems to be swinging at a lot of 1st pitches, but he’s done that his entire career. He’s swung at 1st pitches around 85-100 times most full seasons of his career. This year he’s swung at 77 with 6 weeks to play, which projects to 96 for this year. First pitches tend to be ‘get me over’ fastballs where pitchers take a little off and look to get a quick strike spotting a fastball. Over the course of his career, it’s been a great area (.380/.394/.567) for him to produce. This year (.299/.325/.377) not so much. Aging veteran players tend to swing at this pitch because its easier to handle, and they fear getting deep in a count.
I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
vs. Power 1225 2381 2046 568 107 7 48 253 268 492 .278 .370 .407 .777 833 46 37 22 8 17 39 .343 86
vs. avg.P/F 1145 2936 2563 817 116 16 77 332 277 427 .319 .395 .467 .861 1196 70 56 23 17 7 47 .356 105
vs. Finesse 1582 4941 4458 1469 231 37 104 529 375 613 .330 .387 .468 .855 2086 108 54 34 20 11 81 .363 103
57 109 99 33 7 1 4 9 9 12 .333 .394 .545 .940 54 6 1 0 0 0 0 .349 122
Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs. Power 59 124 111 34 6 1 1 17 11 28 .306 .374 .405 .779 45 6 1 1 0 1 0 .402 115 129
vs. avg.P/F 50 135 121 40 8 0 4 18 12 19 .331 .400 .496 .896 60 3 2 0 0 0 1 .367 146 146
vs. Finesse 86 284 261 61 8 2 3 16 20 29 .234 .292 .314 .606 82 8 2 0 1 1 5 .252 67 61
9 15 14 5 1 0 1 4 1 2 .357 .400 .643 1.043 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 .364 184 194
Here’s an area that doesn’t fit in with my theory that his bat is slowing down. Check out his numbers facing Power vs Finesse pitchers. It appears that he’s having more trouble with soft tossers this year than he is with the hard throwers. That doesn’t add up if his bat is slowing down, or with his success on the curve this year. Though he has benefited from an exceptionally high BABIP facing power pitchers this year, so I’m going to chalk this up to luck within a short season.
In summary, most signs appear to point to an aging player who is simply running out of tricks up his sleeve. His propensity for hitting ground balls is most likely related to his declining numbers against fastballs, resulting in poor contact. His inability to drive the ball is likely a consequence of swinging at more pitches out of the zone, and he swings at bad pitches because he has to commit too early. 2009 appears to be the outlier, the overall trend is down since 2006/2007, depending on what you’re looking at. I don’t expect him to reverse these trends. If anything, I would expect his numbers to decline further next year. I can’t see him maintaining that BABIP facing power pitchers and I don’t expect his rate numbers to suddenly reverse themselves. If I’m Brian Cashman, I don’t offer him more than two years, and I suspect that even then he’ll be a part time/bench player by the end of the deal. A 4-5 year deal and you might as well set the money on fire.
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41 Responses to Derek Jeter-In decline or down year?
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TIQ IQ
jeter is seventh in the majors this year in hits with 143, he is walking less and lower average is in my opinion, the quest for 4 thousand hits..he seems to be swinging much more than ever before..in tight games he works the count more..but still looks to hit his way on .instead of a walk..he also got seems to try to pull the ball , hence more double plays to the SS.. why he stopped what made him great,,is a question..{hitting through the left side} he might have half the DPs he hit into this year..I said this in the past..as yankee fans we have to get used to it ,he will keep swinging until he is done..four thousand hits!!after this year he will need around 1070 hits. six years @ 180 average.. that could be his last contract demands..
He’s swung at 1st pitches around 85-100 times most seasons of his career. This year, he’s swung at 77 with 6 weeks to play, which projects to 96 for this year. This is just perception by fans, he’s not doing anything different than he ever has.
Jeter has and always will be a guy who swings at the first few pitches he sees, walking is apart of the game but it has never been a huge part of Jeter’s game.
Jeter creates a terrible problem if his numbers stay as they are or even continue to downgrade, where do you bat him? He lost the abiltity to lead off because of his terrible OBP but hitting second in the lineup he is nothing more than a double play waiting to happen,the whole team as well as Jeter would benefit from him hitting further down in the order and maybe leading off Gardner with Swisher behind him. However this brings up the hard question how do you ask Derek Jeter to go from 1-2 in the lineup to 7-9 in the lineup without turning it into a disaster.
Derek shockingly is the victim of coming up short while playing for a contract.
One of the most clutch players in history has CHOKED going after a new long term big bucks contract.
His approach at the plate has been tight and un-Jeter-esque.He never had a lot of patience but now he jumps at the first pitch often (nobody throws him a first pitch strike anymore) and is totally impatient and unwilling to play Jeter-Ball.If he purposely lets the first pitch go, he swings at the 3rd instead off the 1-1 count.
He came out trying to get NUMBERS for the first time in his career and got into a bad frame of mind, and after a solid start (he had good power numbers and a good average for awhile) he started pressing harder and harder and now rarely puts the ball in the air.It’s ground out after ground out swinging early and at bad offerings.
I see no decline in his ability, shockingly, he let the contract get to him and is not properly focused.How often have we seen him smiling or laughing with the ump or catcher this season.He isn’t having as much fun.He’s tight and pressing
Yankees should give him a do over and sign him for one season and see what happens next year.
He isn’t going anywhere and he’ll rebound when he thinks it over in the off season..
It’s not about being clutch or not, if anyone has proved himself in that area over the years it’s him. It’s simply a player getting old, which happens to all of them. Even the best, which he clearly was.
He is only worth a 1 year deal with multiple teams options going forward so the team is protected. If he plays well next year he gets another year.
For all he’s meant to the team over the years (and currently) they owe him a 2 year deal. Also, look around Baseball and try to find a SS that’s playing better than a diminished Jeter has this year. Not too many. That’s why he may get 3+, but I think that will be a big mistake.
This is a huge problem that so many believe the Yankees owe Jeter. He has been very well paid over his Yankee career. He deserves to be paid for what he can do on the field only going forward. The Yankees are still going to be the Yankees long after Jeter is gone and you’ll still be rooting for the team with or without him. The sooner Jeter retires the better for all involved.
OK, so who’s your SS in 2011 or 2012?
I have no issue with playing NUNEZ full time starting in 2012.
9Ak8Ys rgamlahdahiz
Steve is exactly right when he asks the question of who they have that’s any better? Pena? Nunez? Any likely candidates in the minors near major league ready? The guy has set the bar so high that when even he falls below that standard, everyone starts asking questions. How do you think his eventual successor will handle the pressure of being compared to him that’s certain to come with the job?
Wanna bet all those hungry sports writers are already licking their chops at the endless story line this will give them?
Yeah, this is another post but looking at the 2011/12 FA lists, there’s not much out there that excites you.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
Maybe Hardy regains his form? Jose Reyes? Jimmy Rollins? Meh. Don’t love any of them. You’d have to try to swing a trade of some sort, or develop your own.
BTW-For an out of the box suggestion, maybe they move Cano to SS and find a 2B. Kelly Johnson could work.
I don’t think Cano has the range to play SS and if he even does has he ever played the position before in the minors? I would rather have Reyes at SS than Cano at least he has proven himself at the position and Jimmy Rollins in another lineup being able to hit 2-3 instead of leadoff would work out better for him. He isn’t able to use his power to it’s full potential when he has to leadoff.
Does any one really believe jeter is not going to be a yankee for the next four to five years??? also believe he won’t be the SS for two more years??/ the yanks will go out and get a SS next year??? I read a lot of your opinions and stats, and agree mostly.. but i can’t believe all above think jeter is done in the yankee organizations eyes.. look again he is seventh in the majors in hits… not SSs but everyone..he is playing for #s now .but not for a contract..he will get what ever he wants from the yanks..no question..they will say derek please go easy.. he will not be damon or matsui.. same goes for MO..they caved on posada..four years at that salary..who in BB would have done that for posada..and he is no jeter.. of course he is not the same player and never will be ..age and not using PEDs have caught up…..but he will have been a yankee for 20 years when all is done..the yankees need to make a hugh decision .no permanent DH.. big mistake NJ.signing..then berkman. and should not do it again next year..we have posada ..now arod and jeter that need to utilize that spot for the next several years to come..if arod plays a position full time he will break down over and over..posada is done..he won’t hit over .250 if he catches more than 80 games next year..At DH he will hit..how can they not see this coming.. cano plays everyday.. soon he may break down .he is not steel. thanks guys..please some imput
Considering what they did to Bernie Williams, how can you be so sure?
The Boss isn’t around anymore, and I’m not sure the younger Steinbrenners value sentiment more than money.
I’m assuming quite a few posters don’t live in New York. WFAN, ESPN 1050 and the tabloids are gonna have a field day with this. This will be fodder for Mike Francesa’s maw for years to come. Michael Kay will never STFU about it either, and when Steve Somers takes the air, the normally depressed Met fans will call in and gloat.
But the same thing happened with Bernie Williams, and with Joe Torre, and look what it got them. The media and fans can scream till they’re blue in the face that it’s “an insult” to offer him a shorter contract given “all that he’s done for New York,” but the reality is he’s going to be 37 years old next season and he has made hundreds of millions of dollars in his career.
Does anyone doubt for one second that as soon as he’s out of a Yankee uniform, they’ll give him pretty much any job he wants with the organization? They’ll deify him, and put his likeness in Monument Park, and there’ll be a Derek Jeter Day and annual ceremonies, and maybe when it’s all said and done he can go play some blues with Bernie.
The idea that he’s still going to be playing in five years is a fantasy.
Not just Bernie, but Torre also. Four rings and 12 pennants and you get a one year, incentive laden contract or you can walk. He walked, as we know, but will Jeter if given a similar insulting deal? This is the only team he ever wanted to play for. Three years with an option for a fourth.
I agree with the original post — Jeter is a player showing signs of decline, inevitable at his age. I would not go beyond two years. But I do so only because the market requires it; I believe some team will offer him such a deal. Otherwise I woudl offer only one-year deals going forward. As to Steve S’s comment above, “For all he’s meant to the team over the years (and currently) they owe him a 2 year deal,” I could not disagree more strongly. That approach is death to a championship team. The Yankees have been as good to Jeter as he has been for them; they don’t owe him anything “for all he’s meant to the team over the years.” There is NO place for sentiment in building a winning team. If you’re listening, Brian Cashman, then my advice is simple: be ruthless. Nothing else wins.
Name 1 team willing to give Jeter more then 12 million per year over multiple years that has a chance to will the WS that he’ll play for?
dodgers…angels
You have to be joking? The Dodgers have no money and the Angels don’t want him.
Torre’s gone after this year. I doubt Derek will follow him to the Mets, and I doubt the Wilpons will pay Torre 4-5 mil.
rooster manny’s 20 mil ..comes off.. but this is just fantasy..he will stay a yank..
The Dodger’s are never going to pay Jeter to play there. Their ownership is going through a divorce.
jeter has the fifth highest BA in the majors…the highest being .294.. how would we like to have at each position a guy that is fifth best in hitting in the majors? something to think about .. some of you are great with #s ,how would that translate?
What does this mean?
Maybe you mean “at his position” or are looking at 2009, but Derek isn’t in the top 30 in BA.
of course at his position..we are talking about SSs, and hits he is 7th in all BB all positions
at years end he will have 190 hits..
Actually he is 6th and just 1 point from being tied for 8th. This thread is just about his offense but his defense has also dipped again quite a bit.
This is where you lose me.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/count/41/qualified/true
He’s 63rd in all of BB at all positions. 5th at SS.
Hi Steve yes 5th at SS, not average… hits
He needs 46 more now for 190 hit season…thats a great year, hit total wise.
We’ve played 4/5 of the season, so Derek figures to get 125 more ABs this year. In order to get 46 more hits, he’d have to hit .368 the rest of the way.
He also has the lowest OBP and SLG of his career and neither one is really close.
You can deal with bad defense and a swing first mentality when a SS is keeping his OBP at .380+ and his SLG never drops below .400 in his career but when career numbers of .315/.385/.455 becomes season numbers of .277/.339/.388 you have problems.
I agree with your #s they have fallen off.. but how does he compare with the rest of his top tier peers? My point is he just wants to keep swinging ,he wants to get to 4k hits..so his walks will be down ..all his #s will suffer..but like i said he is still on pace for around 190 hits and that is a great # of hits.. he defense isn’t bad he is just not the great player he was..pena is better than him at SS and pena is better than arod at third.. would your opinion be ..not sign him next year ,if you would sign him, whats all the fuss about this year.. thanks T.O. Chris
including today 39 games @ 4 Abs .. 156 Abs..take 3 games rest out lets say 140 abs.. so what would be 46 hits in 140 at bats..thanks steve
looks like .329… would that be correct? not impossible
That would be .329, but BBs get subtracted from ABs. Jeter has averaged about 620 ABs the past few years, 125 ABs sounds right.
25 push ups he gets to 190…368 he won’t hit.. i don’t think jeter will want to walk ..my point is he wants to keep hitting ..thats why his avg. is way down and hits on target with his history
Another thing I thought of as I was discussing this with Mike. He mentioned that the one really Jeter-esque month Derek had this year was April. That’s a month where pitchers are still building up arm strength and their fastballs are not yet in mid-season form. For him to do well that month, and fall back to a lesser level the rest of the year only confirms the idea that his bat has slowed. As the old saw goes, never believe numbers in April and September.