On the road again, just can't wait to get on the road again...
First and foremost, congrats to Seattle GM Jack Z for getting this deal done. According to reports, he was the one who approached the Yanks, then the story leaked out all over the place (likely from the Seattle side) and he started a bidding war that netted him at least one terrific prospect in Smoak, a good pitcher in Beavan and two other prospects who may be useful parts. Former Reds and Nats GM Jim Bowden said on his Sirius-XM radio show yesterday that he thinks Seattle got back even more than they gave up for Lee in the off season. If so, it’s a huge win for his franchise. He sold season tickets on the hopes of being a contender with Lee, and then netted more talent than he had for his rebuilding when things didn’t work out the way he hoped. You can’t beat a deal like that.
Now I want to get into the mechanics of this story from the media perspective and how it all went down, which is always interesting when it comes to trades. I have to think Sherman’s report came from sources on the Seattle side. Always remember that it’s in the seller’s (Seattle) interest to leak this story, not the buyer (Yanks). The nature of Sherman’s initial report, titled “Yanks on brink of landing Cliff Lee” seems designed to get any team that wanted Lee to run to the phone and start bidding. When most deals happen, they simply get reported on after the fact. This one seemed deliberately strung along. The Yanks got to the one yard line, a “deal was imminent” and then . . we waited and waited for hours only to find the deal had fizzled. What also makes me think Sherman had a Seattle source was the way he was still clued in on this long after the Yanks made it clear that they had dropped out. The Yanks should have been out of the loop at that point (having made their final offer) so Joel had to be talking to people from Seattle. He was also one of the first to get the eventual deal that was consummated with the Rangers, so that may have been his reward for helping Jack Z out with the initial report. If you’re going to leak and do it right, you give the info to somebody from the other city, so it looks like it’s coming from their side. It makes the rumor look more credible to 3rd parties, since a rumor coming from a Seattle reporter would figure to be coming the Mariners. Jack Z is a smart guy, I’m sure he knows how to play the game. He did a nice job playing the media and marketplace to his advantage.
I’m still not totally convinced the Yankee interest was 100% legit. While Lee is certainly an upgrade, there was no need on the Yanks for a starter. Many observers responded to this deal as “overkill” by the Yanks, and it was overpriced to boot. Overkill and overpriced were trademarks of the Steinbrenner years, not Brian Cashman’s term. This was a very expensive deal and Brian typically steers clear of those trades. Brian Cashman has also long been against giving up top flight prospects for rentals that he can simply sign a few months later. By dangling Montero, they got Texas to give up Smoak (which they resisted prior) and a good AA starter. That hurts the Rangers long term, and Texas may very well be a playoff opponent for the Yanks both this year and in the future. The Rangers are also no threat whatsoever to sign Lee to an extension, given their financial woes. When a trade is “imminent” and doesn’t happen, I smell a rat and sometimes both teams in the rumor are playing along. How many times were the Red Sox “very close” to landing Johan Santana? About every two weeks back in 07. Johan (Lefty fly ball pitcher) never made as much sense for the Sox as he did for the Yanks if you assume they would be paying a fair market price for him in terms of prospects. I always thought those rumors were designed to make the Yanks panic, which thankfully they didn’t.
But it’s also possible that the Yanks are more down on Montero than we realize. Baseball America recently released their Top 25 prospect list, and said this about Montero:
5. Jesus Montero, c/dh, Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre): Montero hasn’t improved this year, and for some he hasn’t impressed. After generating positive defensive trends and reports at the end of 2009 at Double-A Trenton, Montero has convinced scouts this year that he won’t be a long-term catcher. He was leading the International League with 12 passed balls and was getting run on at will—87 attempts in 63 games, throwing out 19 (22 percent). He’s experiencing his first adversity offensively, but scouts are confident his bat will still be strong.
If Montero winds up as a 1B or DH, he loses a lot of value to the Yanks. But whatever the Yanks motivation was in this deal, it still turned out OK for them. From the Yankee point of view, they really didn’t need Lee, they keep Montero, Adams and McAllister for future considerations and helped get a potential playoff opponent to overpay for a rental. Plus, they didn’t have to face Lee last night, which I’m sure no one on the Yanks was complaining about. With Nick Johnson’s injury and recent setback, the Yanks could be looking for a DH. If they’ve given up on him defensively, Montero could suit the bill. So things worked out pretty well for the Yanks, at least for now. But if they have to face Lee in the playoffs (which they probably wont in the ALDS) I may have to reconsider that.
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11 Responses to Wrapping up the Cliff Lee saga
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TIQ IQ
Of course we still have to play Texas 2 more times, which means that while we missed him last night, we probably have to face him 2 more times in the second half. The bright side is, after Sunday, we are finished with west coast trips.
Right, we’ll have to see how the schedule plays out. But any regular season match ups pale in comparison to the impact Lee could have in October. The Rangers did well here, even if I think their GM panicked a bit. They have a shut down bullpen, dangerous lineup and now a bonafide ace. They’ll be dangerous in October. I still think the Yanks are better, but the odds for playoff success for the Rangers just went up substantially.
I’ve been wondering myself whether Cashman was in cahoots with Jack Z on this one to drive the price up. Was there really a deal to move Montero or was it a feint?
It’s something you really can’t prove (and the Yanks would never admit) but a trade like this seems out of character for Brian Cashman. The Yanks could argue that their farm system is so deep in Catchers that Montero is expendable, and Lee was just too attractive to pass up. But that means that Vazquez would have to be traded or Hughes would have to go to the bullpen. There would be so many other moving parts that it makes me doubt the sincerity of the Yanks intentions. It’s just so much easier to take a pass, keep your trade chips and go fill an actual need much less expensively.
Sorry, but thats insane. Theres no way Cashman dangles his best prospect to help out a rival GM. No way. It’s not that complicated, anyway – simply deal JV and move Hughes to the pen in October.
I know you’ve since been reminded of this from reading the comments in your post from this afternoon, but that’s exactly what happened with Roy Halladay. Also, I never argued that he was doing it to help out a rival GM, but in his own interests.
In any case, I was just throwing that out there because parts of this never added up to me, many of which you addressed in your post. Seeing the way the Yanks reacted today lends much more credence to the idea that they were totally sincere, notwithstanding the fact that we both still have some unanswered questions that hopefully will be cleared up in the coming days.
I guess I don’t quite understand what Cashman has to gain by dangling Montero if he doesn’t have a genuine interest in acquiring him? Doesn’t it implicitly lower Montero’s trade value?
Apparently Cashman upgraded his offer to Montero, Adam Warren, and Z-Mac, after Jack Z. expressed concner over David Adam’s ankle injury, which to be fair is an ongoing issue and Adams has no time-table for a return.
The hijinks ensued when Jack Z. then demanded Eduardo Nunez. Cashman made the right decision at balking right there as Nunez is a good offensive player and overall upgrade over Pena. Jack Z. still got a promising hitter at the end of July 9th, but I think Warren and Z-Mac >>> than the texas pitchers.
From the reports coming out, particularly the NY Post coverage, Yankees officials are infuriated and thought they had a deal with Jack Z. Montero was indeed going to get traded.
Yeah. Cashman has no reason to do that, and its pretty clear he didnt.
I don’t think anyone thinks that Shermans source was in Seattle. It’s possible, but it seems pretty clear to me that Sherman’s sources are all in NY.