I noticed this little blurb over at Rob Neyer’s SweetSpot blog, written by the fine folks over at IIATMS:
It’s hard to know what to expect from the 2010 version of the New York Yankees. Should we focus on the great starting pitching, and the hitting of Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher? Or should we worry about A-Rod’s nagging injuries and the shaky bullpen? True enough, the Yankees are on a pace to win more than 100 games. But they are 16-3 against the weakest teams on their schedule (Baltimore, Houston, Cleveland) and just 25-22 against everyone else. So far, the Yankees have won eight and lost eight against division rivals Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto. We cannot pronounce these Yankees a championship-caliber team. Not yet.
These are sentiments that I have heard from plenty of Yankees fans, that despite the team’s lofty record, they are not a championship type team at this point. While I concede that the club is not perfect, I have to ask: if the Yankees are not a “championship caliber” club, who is? Watching the Yankees every day, some of us see flaws and tend to blow them out of proportion, turning bullpen struggles into an issue that is certain to torpedo their title hopes. We forget that the competition has flaws as well, and that their problems are likely greater and more numerous than those of the Yankees. The Yankees are most certainly a title contender, simply by virtue of being the best team in baseball. Is that where the analysis ends? Certainly not. There are circumstances under which the Yankees’ problems could get worse and other teams can improve, and suddenly the Yankees might be on the outside looking in. But as we stand now, I am quite confident in pronouncing the Yankees a championship caliber team.
Additionally, the concept of beating up on bad teams is one that holds true for most good teams in sports. Would it speak better of the Yankees if they were terrible against the Orioles and had a strong record against better clubs? I think not. The 2009 world champion Yankees had a .680 winning percentage against teams below .500, compared to a .598 against teams .500 or better. This year’s team has seen a wider gap, but we are talking about a handful of games such that it is not a real significant difference (.731 v. .553, two different results in each category would see the same numbers as last season). As a point of comparison, the Red Sox have a .632 to .540 split, while the Rays are at a slightly more “impressive” .646 v. .575 (Interestingly, the Rays have played 40 games against over .500 clubs, while the Yankees have had 48 and the Red Sox 50). Good teams beat the teams that they are supposed to beat and hold their own against the better clubs. The Yankees are no different in that regard, and I see no reason for concern in these numbers.
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13 Responses to Who Is A Contender, If Not The Yankees?
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TIQ IQ
So Moshe, you think Phil Hughes is going 22-4? What is he 11-2 right now? I think if your life depnded on it, I don’t think you would send out Phil who has been mediocre at best the last month or so to win a playoff game.
Is AJ Burnett a top #1-2 type pitcher right now who can go out and beat the SOX and/or Rays in a must game? He’s just as likely to give up 5 runs in 3 innings as he is to shut anyone down.
How about Javy? I think he’s 5-6 innings 3-4-5 runs best case against those teams.
There’s a huge difference between wininng more games than someone else over 150 games becuase of your depth and being able to win a MUST series agiasnt the SOX or RAYS.
Both of those teams have enough pitching to beat the Yankees in critical short series at the end of the season to get into the playoffs and to win the playoffs.
Aside from CC and the ancient Andy Pettitte, who would you really trust against those teams in must win situations?
Of course Jeter, Posada and Tex could have big 2nd halfs as could AROD and that would help but Gardner, Cano and Swisher could have worse 2nd halfs than first halfs and you’d be pretty much the same.
Our middle relief is abysmal and even MAriano is starting to show some cracks.Much less broken bats and strikeouts, it appears to me.
Sure, we have as good a shot as anyone but we needed LEE much more than some suggest.
Lee is better than Hughes and Huges better than Joba , in a short series that is ENORMOUS!!!!!!!!!!!
The Rays rotation is the only one that has outpitched the Yankees rotation, and even that is close. So yes, I trust the Yankee rotation. You are doing exactly what I pointed out in the article: voicing concerns about the Yanks and ignoring the other teams’ problems.
Here is a catalog of the concerns you have voiced as well as a reply.
1. Phil Hughes has been mediocre in the past month.
True. But he’s also been really good this year. And he’ll be in the bullpen during the playoffs. Let’s chill before we draw any conclusions about the sky’s impending collision with the ground.
2. Burnett is just as likely to give up 5 runs in 3 innings as he is to shut anyone down
That’s probably true, yeah. I hate him too.
3. Javy Vazquez is 5-6 innings with 3-5 runs against Red Sox and Rays.
Unproven, and probably false. He’s been our second best pitcher in the last six weeks.
4. The Red Sox and Rays have the pitching to beat the Yankees in a short series.
And the Yankees have the pitching to beat the Red Sox or the Rays in a short series.
We won’t face them in a short series in the playoffs, and in your scenario of a late-season, short-series, must-win-to-get-into-the-playoffs, I like the depth of our rotation. You can make the case that the Rays and the Red Sox have great rotations and I’ll agree. That’s why they’re top 5 ballclubs this year. Can’t do anything about it. We have a great rotation too. Hopefully we win.
5. Who do you trust to win in must-win games aside from CC and Andy Pettitte?
Wait, how many must-win games are we having that we have to have not 1, not 2, but at least THREE guys that you can absolutely trust to win must-win games? Why does this keep happening to us?
6. People could improve, people could get worse.
Yep. Welcome to baseball.
7. Our middle relief is bad, even Mariano is showing cracks. Much less broken bats and strikeouts.
Middle relief is bad. No argument there.
Mariano’s K/9 rate is down from 9.8 to 8.7. Do you know how many more batters Rivera would have needed to strike out in order to achieve a midseason K/9 of 9.8? 4. Relax.
8. We could win, but we could “could win” even more if we had LEE.
Water under the bridge. Also, see my reply to 6.
9. Lee > Hughes > Joba.
What is this I dont even…
Last year’s Yankees were labeled the same thing after they started the season 0:8 vs. Red Sox. Even more so after they were swept by Angles right before all-star break. Of course, we all know what happened at the end of the season.
So why would someone bring this up again on this year’s Yankees?
Exactly. I remember it clearly because one blogger in particular was hammering that point day after day.
Couldn’t possibly have been Steve Lombardi, could it?
This past Saturday morning, Lombardi had a blog post which showed a table of every winning streak the Yankees have had this year that were three or more games (except, of course, for one three game streak where they beat the Rays and Angels), and concluded by saying the Yankees are 24-31 in games outside of those streaks (built up on largely crappy opposition, he concluded).
http://waswatching.com/2010/07/10/yankees-winning-streaks-this-season/
Well, my counter theory to that was to take the 2009 Yankees, and remove every winning streak of 5+ games they had, and see their record then. Last year, they had a nine game winning streak, an eight gamer, four seven gamers, and a five gamer in-between. Subtract that, and they went 53-59 last year.
Turning World Champions into chumps 101.
Considering Arod and tex have only recently started to rake like we knew they would, and how easy acceptable middle relief is to find (a lot easier than good bats or starting pitchers, not to mention a few guys in the minors that look like they can fill that hole), I think we’re in a lot better shape than we have been in several years at the break.
As for Hughes weak month-he’s been a good pitcher over the first half. His record is better than he’s pitched, but he’s had a lot of good starts. Him being this good isn’t a surprise to a lot of us. Hopefully he’s learned enough to make the minor adjustments he needs to get back to being as good as he’s capable of (throw the frikken change up!). I don’t foresee a collapse on his part. Just Like Javy’s too good a pitcher to not reel of a bunch of good starts in a row. I’d give either of them the ball in postseason and like my chances.
You only need a .526 winning % in the playoffs to win the WS
/just sayin’
11 / 19 = .579
3-2 in LDS, and 4-3 in both the LCS and WS. 3 + 8 = 11. 2 + 6 = 8
Where did you get that figure?
From my bad math skills
Guys, we do NOT have the pitching to win it all again this season. Hopefully some guys will step up or they’ll bring somebody up from the minors but right now the Bullpen is terrible.
Red Sox have had a million injuries and they’re still hanging round.
We need another big arm in the BP at the very least.
Javy is NOT a big game shutdown type pitcher.
aaaaaaand SCENE!
The 2009 team had C.C., AJ, and Pettitte in the playoffs. No 4th starter that was of enough quality to dare use in the LCS. Yet they somehow made it work.
I know that the format has since been modified to cut off some of the days off (notably, the day off between the 4th and 5th games of the LCS), but why can’t those three be trusted again? C.C. is C.C., Pettitte has a great playoff resume (and he was old last year, too), and while Lord knows I’m not AJ’s biggest fan, he was pretty much great in home starts last year. It was on the road he got pummeled. Javy has a poor playoff resume, can’t disagree with that. Guess my rebuttal would be who is a reliable 4th starter elsewhere? You could mention TB, but that’s about all I could find (since they have Price, Niemann, Shields, and Garza, but Garza’s pretty much their version of Burnett). Boston? Their #4 right now would be Lackey. He’s sucked this year. For all the talk of Javy’s horrendous April, he’s rebounded to the point where his WHIP is nearly .4 lower than Lackey’s. Lackey is the great bulldog in everyone’s mind, but being a bulldog only goes so far when you suck otherwise. Texas, Minnesota, Detroit all lack solid #4′s. Chicago would’ve had a very fine front four, but Peavy’s injury dinged them there. Nothing against Freddy Garcia, who has comeback from the edge of baseball purgatory to establish himself as a solid starting pitcher again, but he should not be a #4 starter. Much better suited as the inning eating #5 guy.
We heard the same tired argument last year in deference to Boston being a title contender vs. the Yankees. “Built for the playoffs.” Even though I didn’t disagree with the notion that they were well suited for playoff baseball with their front-end, the fact that some thought the Yankees would be overmatched despite winning 9 of their last 10 against the Sox and 103 games overall during the season, was ludicrous. And guess what that built for the playoffs thing got Boston.
A sweep.
I won’t disagree about the bullpen. Mo is Mo, everyone else is a question mark. This is where Hughes would work very well come playoff time (though he sucked in that role last postseason). Any improvement from DRob, Jobber, etc. would be nice, but I won’t expect it simply because the “luck” factors that are used in pitcher analysis (ex. BABIP) are limited when it comes to relievers. There’s no guarantee of a regression to the mean.
But the starting pitching has been the biggest reason the Yankees are currently 56-32. That’s about the last thing I would question at this point in time.