We’re almost a week into July and that means that in a few weeks, the trade deadline will be here. This means that we’ll be hearing every team in contention is in on every guy that is available. This, obviously, includes the Yankees who’ve been said to like Cliff Lee (really?!) and Ty Wiggington among others. I’d like to ignore, for a second, the trade targets of the Yankees and instead focus on the trade pieces they have (at least two of them at the Major League level) and discuss trade value.
This is obviously coming from an amateur but there are two types of trade value in my opinion: actual value and perceived value. Actual value is something that teams rarely get for a player. This is, quite simply, what a guy is actually worth. Granted, this is something hard to define since different players mean different things to different teams. And, if a guy is getting traded, he’s a different type of valuable than he is to the team to which he’s being traded.
Perceived value is basically what we see all the time. It’s not necessarily what the guy is worth, but what other teams and executives think he’s worth. This is where the magic of negotiation occurs.
The distinctions between these two types of value is one that we’ll need to be wary of going forward in this month of rumors, speculations, and trades. One GM will try to push a guy as someone who has high value while the other will say the opposite. It is with this in mind that I’d like to discuss two names I’ve been seeing a lot around the Yankee Blogoverse as trade candidates: Joba Chamberlain and Francisco Cervelli.
In many ways, these two players are pretty different: one’s a pitcher, the other a catcher; one has a potentially high ceiling, the other not so much. However, there’s also a few ways they’re similar: they’re young, they’re cheap, and they’ve both got very low trade value. I’ll repeat that: both Joba Chamberlain and Francisco Cervelli have very little trade value. This is something we’ll need to remember going forward, especially when thinking of potential trade ideas.
I’ll start with Joba. Last week, many comments expressed a “Trade Joba!” type of sentiment and this is something with which I wholeheartedly disagree. Firstly because I have some (possibly/probably ignorant) faith that the Yankees will do the right thing and re-start Joba (literally). Secondly, Joba’s trade value is shot. The minute they chose to put him in the bullpen for the 2010 season he lost a whole lot of his trade value. The fact that he’s now pitching relatively poorly, despite okay peripherals, hurts his trade value even more. IMO, he’s still got a decent bit of upside and that’s the only thing that’s buoying his trade value. He’s staying in New York for that reason.
Finally, we get to Frankie. He’s another one who has low trade value. But, Cervelli’s trade value is low for a different reason. His trade value is low because he’s already reached his ceiling. That ceiling is rather low and there’s not really much that he can bring back in a trade. What he is now–a decent contact, decent on base skill, no power, good defending catcher–is all he is. That is a back up catcher. The chance that he becomes more than this is very low. Because of this, there is almost nothing he can bring back in a trade. At the most in a trade, Cervelli would be a throw in.
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17 Responses to On Trade Value
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TIQ IQ
i agree with this post Matt, then speaking of value, it seems that kemp may be available from the dodgers, is this the same guy that dodger fans wouldn’t trade for Cano awhile back? might the yanks have any interest?
Agreed 100%. Trading Joba now would be selling low, and unless some team is really high on his potential as a starter he isn’t going to fetch a return commensurate with his value. Other teams will be eager to get some of the Yankee catching talent, but not Cervelli. They”ll ask for Montero and hope the Yankees might be willing to deal Romine instead because other young catchers are in the pipeline (Murphy and Sanchez). Romine and Noesi might be enough as, say, the centerpiece for Lee.
We’re going to hear a few other things in the weeks before the trade deadline. One is the frequent complaint of Yankee fans that other teams always demand more in trades from the Yankees than they do from other teams. This is also a reflection of perceived value: fans (and perhaps the organizations themselves) tend to overvalue their own assets. We need to be wary of reports that team X asked for two A level prospects in exchange for a guy the Yankees expect to use as a utility player (e.g., Wigginton). Sure, the other team may have asked, but the Yankees then said no, and the negotiations either shifted to other prospects or stopped if the other team had a better offer on the table from a third organization. We might not agree that it was a better offer, but that is irrelevant. What matters is that the other team did. Only its perception carries weight, not ours. Contrary to what some Yankee fans believe, another team has no incentive to accept an inferior offer over one from the Yankees.
If you’re going after Lee you pretty much need to trade Javy Vasquez and prospects. I’d love to throw in Cervelli but that leaves you without a viable backup catcher this year. Romine might help get it done but who wants to lose him? Since Lee has stated repeatedly he wants to go FA, I wouldn’t chase him unless Boston looks strong for him.
Why would the M’s want Vazquez? And backup catchers aren’t the most difficult commodity to find. A good one is, and as of late Cervelli just hasn’t been very good (not sayinig I would trade him).
Btw I’m a big Joba fan, and still am despite his struggles. I was always pro job as a starter (and still am) but am wondering if the people who want to trade him were the “Joba is the successor to Mo!!!!!111!!” crowd.
I don’t think the M’s would want Vazquez; you’d probably have to have a third party to move him. I’m very skeptical that we get Lee.
Well, Javy is pitching pretty well now and unless you put a three way together, who needs a sixth starter? With a three-way you have lots more options but remember, you can have Lee for just money next year so whatever prospects you lose in the trade, all you are getting is the incremental goodness of Lee over Javy for half a season. Frankly, at 51-31 as is, I wouldn’t give up much to add half a season of Lee over Javy.
If the Yankees were to acquire Lee without trading one of their starters for him (as seems likely), they would have several options. One would be dealing Vazquez to a National League team that needs a starter. But that is not the only possibility. He could also be sent to the bullpen and then returned to starting when Hughes approaches his innings limit. Hughes then fortifies the bullpen down the stretch and int he postseason. And, of course, there is always the possibility of an injury to another starter.
Nova, McAllister and Edwardo Nunez is the type of package I’d offer. If they didn’t want Nunez or thought he couldn’t play SS, maybe they’d take Adams or Cervelli also.
For whom are you offering this package? If that’s your package for Lee, you’d get hung up on in negative seconds.
I don’t agree.These guys always command more players in the press than in reality.What did Minnesota get for Santana?
Also, Yankee prospects are often undervalued by Media but teams scouts know they can play.
Nunez is a .300 hitter, great athlete and a SS.Last time I looked those guys were still in demand.
We have other pitchers to substitute also.
I don’t think you need to give a top 3 prospect in your organization to get a player for a few months, especially in a down economy, where few teams are really players to sign him long term..
I wouldn’t give up any of the top 4 catchers (Cervelli I’d give up in a second) or Heathcott but kids like Adams or Joseph, blocked by Cano have value also in a trade.
Minnesota got little for Santana because they overplayed their hand and asked for too much from the Yanks/Sox. I feel the demand for Lee is higher than it was for Santana.
As for Nunez, he’s playing well of late but his ceiling is still pretty low. Nova and McAllister are back-end-maybe-number-three-guys at best. Regardless of the economy or how long you’ll get the player, you’re not going to get a guy of Lee’s caliber with a bunch of high probability but really low ceiling type guys. The discussion for Lee starts with the other team’s top prospects.
Obviously things change year to year, but wouldn’t the cost for Lee be theoretically lower than it would be for Santana? In both cases, the player was scheduled to walk at the end of the year, become a Type A free agent and sign a gigondo contract. In this case though, you only get a half year of Lee, whereas Santana was coming w/ a full year+ext.
That said, I agree w/ you in re: the prospect package, and I’d add that no deal for Lee is going to go down w/o including one of our catching prospects.
You’re borrowing Lee for a few months.
Nobody knows if Nova or MacAllister are back end guys or not really.Plenty said Hughes was a back end guy also.Admittdely they aren’t guys who throw 96 but Santana was acquired by Minnesota for nothing because he wasn’t on a 40 man roster.Don’t be so sure about things you can’t be so sure of.
Wouldn’t shock me if both those pitcher turned out ot be very good.What was Javier Vasquez’s upside? Back end type, like Nova who almost won a CY Young last year?
Probably not very high.
wigginton another .240 hitter.. what are we doing collecting bums… for that matter stick with thames..you don’t have to give up anyone…wigginton ..that’s beyond logic.. we need tex and arod to hit..we can not win with out your 3 and 4 hitters.. girardi needs to rest cano..the kid is tired.. let robertson close the last few games before the all star game..mo is saying he needs to rest..
Agree about Wigginton. Frankly, I like Colin Curtis playing more.He has power and can field.Thames can hit lefties.
I think Gardner batting leadoff will create more runs also .
But those guys can’t play infield, which is what the Yankees are looking for.
is girardi reading my posts…he sat cano..lefty i totally agree with you. and you thought right gardner is running again .