[I wrote this post after Friday's lost and Moshe agreed I should post it here]
Two things:
1) Today’s loss is as much on the offense leaving the bases loaded with no one out and not scoring as it is on the bullpen, and
2) This is NOT a post about what ails Joba.
This is a post about whether Joba, as he is pitching right now, should be pitching the eighth inning in high leverage spots.
If you’re reading this, you probably know what happened: AJ Burnett pitched six and two-thirds innings of shut out baseball, and the Yankees took a 1-0 lead in the eighth, where Joba subsequently went IMPLODE!, and the Yankee offense couldn’t score for Mariano or D-Rob before Chan Ho Park did the whole Chan D’oh Park thing.
Ultimately, the crucial point of the game occurred late in the game, as the Yankees looked to hold on to their 1-0 lead.
Now, we can rehash the leverage argument–use your best pitcher in the highest leverage situations–all we want, and argue that maybe Mariano could have pitched the eighth inning and let Joba face the bottom of the lineup in the ninth, but that said look at the hitters Joba faced in the eighth (John Buck led off the ninth inning, so go from there).
Guys that are hitting .205 and .192 should not reach base period, if you are your team’s eighth inning guy.
I get that pitchers slump, have good outings and bad outings, but ask yourself this: Game 7 of the World Series, in 1-0 game the Yankees are winning, who’s coming on to pitch the eighth inning?
If we set aside for the minute the answer that “it’s probably Mariano, with everything on the line and nothing to lose”, then the answer right now becomes Joba.
So tell me, are you comfortable, in that situation, with Chamberlain on the mound?
I’m sure you remember the spectacular implosions of four or five runs against Boston and Cleveland, but what happens if we go saber about the whole things?
One thing we can look at is a player’s WPA, which is simply the probability that a player adds to his team’s chance of winning that game. Positive is good, negative is bad. Fairly simple concept even if the calculation is somewhat complex.
If we look at Joba’s game logs, we see that, prior to day, Joba had a negative WPA in 8 of 34 games.
That is, just over a quarter of all of Joba’s appearances have negatively affected the game’s outcome for the Yankees.
Joba’s not the only pitcher with a string of negative WPA marks–for example, David Robertson has 10 in 27 games, which is also very not good, but whereas Robertson’s negative WPA averages -0.069, Joba’s averages -0.195. In plain English, when Joba fails, he fails worse.
Of course, since Joba generally pitches later in the game, which often involves higher leverage situations, his failures would more adversely affect the outcome of the game than pitching poorly in a low leverage situation in the sixth inning, but I digress.
How confident are you if the pitcher on the mound is actually hurting the team in a quarter of all of his appearances?
Another way to look at it: In , batters are hitting .317/.356/.488 /.843 against Joba, and if you do that over the course of a season, you’re probably getting some votes for the All Star team unless you play the same position as Pujols or Jeter.
You will perhaps notice that Joba actually walks more in low leverage situations, but don’t be fooled: the more runners you put on base, the more likely that low leverage situation will become a self made high leverage situation.
Well, you say, if not Joba in the eighth inning, then who?
I’ll go back to the oft-repeated argument that high leverage = best pitcher and stick to that–if the eighth inning is the most crucial part of your game thus far, use Mariano if you’ve got him, because the ninth doesn’t matter if you can’t get through the eighth first. If the eighth inning is not that crucial high leverage situation, and you can afford to live with Joba’s nibbling, such as it may be, then fine, go ahead–but once the low leverage becomes high leverage, it looks like it becomes a roll of the dice.
Like every Yankee fan, I wish I could tell you how to fix Joba. I can’t. I can only hope, then, that somehow, by the time September and October roll around, we’ll be able to look back at this post, and laugh, in the good way.
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9 Responses to Joba, the Eighth Inning, and some thoughts
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TIQ IQ
You gotta go Mo in the 8th and 9th. IIRC, in The Book, it’s better for the closer to pitch the 8th and 9th rather than play for tomorrow and hope you have the lead in the 9th.
Mo should not picth 2 innings unless it is playoff time ,,thats why we have a bullpen..girardi needs to manage it better.. never should have taken on park or let coke go… bring up melancon….girardi blew this game in the bottom of the sixth…first and second zero out..cervelli up ….gardner and jeter to follow.. he must bunt cervelli in a 1 to zero game.. that is just basic..the kid handles the bat well.. gardner is hot a .300 plus hitter..a squeeze, a fly ball..do the jays play the infield in.. the kid is a jet..a lot of pressure on the defense now..girardi waits for the blast..cervelli is no blaster..we have had this same situation a few times this year already..each time double plays..yes the other guys did not come through..we had many chances..but this is on the manager..no hit and runs no squeezes..very few sac’s…he is so predictable..just like torre.. and please mo is 40 years old.. this is not the time of year to burn him out.. hopefully posada goes on the DL..and we call montero up.. posada is and has been hurt.. he is at this time a dead spot…grandy can not and will not ever hit lefties… girardi must sit him vs southpaws..
Good post. Agree with everything.
I think that if the same problems occur, with the same people, over the next 3 weeks, that there will be a bullpen restructuring where 2 or 3 guys change (new people) or get new roles. They have done this during Girardi’s reign before. Resetting the bullpen, mid year, for the playoff push.
The problem remains that wether what he has done up to now is actually a good indicator of what he will do going forward.
Nick Swisher hit under .220 in 2008, Fredy Sanchez hit .344 in 2006, neither are good indicator of their ability going forward and instead was more a function of hits dropping more or less than normal distribution.
Right now, Joba has a BABIP of .388 , pitchers even more so than hitters are at the mercy of luck when it comes to balls falling for hits. (though Joba have been consistenly getting a higher BABIP since 2008, but the current rate is still absurd.)
While it IS entirely possible that this BABIP continues for the rest of the season. there’s also a reasonable chance that it reverts to normal.
Besides. it’s not like there are really baetter options lining up here.
If we look pass the ERA, there are a lot of positives for Joba so far this year, his velo is up to 2008 level again, his whiff is back up and his walks are down, and he is keeping the ball on the ground . his problem so far this year is that the balls are landing at a ridiculas rate against him, and that he seem to dramatically become less effective if someone reaches base.
Is he surely going to rebound? who knows, long term I’d say yes, but in the context of half a season anything can happen. in the short term, I guess they could try to roll the dice, but it isn’t likely that whatever other options they can reasonably conjure up is much more likely to be successful then just hope that Joba start pitching closer to his FIP
make robertson and marte your eighth inning guys..drop joba to seventh inning takes alot of pressure off him..
show show chan the way out of the park and bring up alba..or melancon..my head hurts everyt time he comes in..just like igawa..
As much as I get infuriated with Joba when he blows a lead, I do not want him traded off the team. I think a lot of his problems are mental and emotional. A lot of his published comments tell me that he is still very immature in many ways. He still has a lot of growing up to do, and certainly needs to be handled and taught things the right way.
He is a young talent that other ML teams would love to have. I hope that he gets straigtened out here, and not be one of those cases where the shock of a change of scene is the only thing that will mature this young man.
i agree with you ..if playing in NY and bursting on the scene did not motivate joba a few years back..what will…he made stupid comments about NYC going back when NYers fell in love with him..he dogged it with the bugs.and now acts like farnsworth.. afraid or stubborn with the fastball..and in love with the slider he can not get over..out of shape ..he needs a few weeks in AAA to either motivate him back or find out what his metal really is…roy halladay was sent back to get his act together..he took the challenge..and fixed his problems..the melky’s joba’s..ed whitsons and many others can’t handle NY..no melky look at cano.. if joba can’t learn from guys like MO…CC… andy…he has a problem.. the yanks have given him more chances than any other guy on the team over the last few years..98mph fastball..one day the next 91 mph ..he is shaped like a keg of beer..and he must fill it up every night.. believe me i like the kid… but he must grow up..get in baseball shape ..he could be our answer to mo.. only joba can get it right..or be another almost.
the orders were in….throw fastballs,and spot them..girardi must have read my comments./.good job joba..you pitched with heart tonight..