Dave Cameron of Fangraphs put together a top 10 list of the players with the most negative trade value. These are players who you’d have to pay the other team to take, given their production at their level of compensation. A certain Yankee came in at #1-
#1 – Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York
Remaining Commitment: 7 years, $174 million
When he was in Texas, Rodriguez was seen as having the biggest albatross of a contract in baseball, even though he was actually worth the money he was being paid. Now, though, he actually is the most overpaid player in the game. Age and injuries have taken him from an elite player to a merely good one, and yet he’s the game’s highest paid superstar. Worse, he turns 35 next Tuesday, and yet he’s signed for another seven years with a minimum of $174 million coming his way. In reality, it will be more than that, as he has $6 million bonuses to be paid out for hitting 660, 700, and 714 home runs, and another $6 million each if he ties and breaks the all-time HR record. If he stays relatively healthy and plays the full seven years, he could collect an additional $30 million on top of the already too-high salaries he’s due. It’s hard to think of any team that would give him $100 million for his 35-41 seasons, much less twice that. The Yankees would probably have to agree to eat something in the neighborhood of $110 to $120 million in order to move Rodriguez. Yikes, indeed.
There’s no doubt Alex is having a down year. He’s currently on pace to hit 27-28 HRs and his .847 OPS is the lowest he’s posted of any full season in the majors. Obviously the season’s not over, and maybe a big hot streak will get his numbers back to career norms. But were just a few days from August, so time is running out. If this is the post-steroid/amphetamine Alex, then we can forget talk about 800 HRs, and we may even forget about 700. Steroids take a toll on the body as a player ages, and they tend to break down due to various injuries. At age 34, it’s fair to start wondering if we have already seen the best from Alex and how much he has left going forward.
The good news is that Alex’s contract was front loaded, and his salary begins to decline after peaking this year at 32 mil. From Cot’s:
- 08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
But as you can see, the real salary relief doesn’t kick in until about 2015. Fangraphs has his value currently at 10.4 mil. Over a full season, that projects to 17.88 mil in value to the Yanks for the 2010 season. By contrast, his value just a year ago was 21.1 mil, a season that he missed the first 1/4 of the year rehabbing from hip surgery. As far as we know he’s been healthy this year, yet the numbers haven’t shown up. Unless Alex regains his pre-hip surgery form, he will continue to be one of the most overpaid and untradeable players in the game.
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13 Responses to Fangraphs lists A-Rod most untradable
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TIQ IQ
This article got me depressed :(
I like Alex as a player, as a personality, not so much. I don’t think
they win the WS last year without him but frankly, when he opted out
of his contract a few years ago they should have let him try to find
a new home with Boras’ help. As good as he was, there were options
that brought us close to the same level of performance that were vastly
better values.
It’s fair to start wondering, but Im loathe to predict the end for players who are such outliers like A-Rod. We spent years forecasting the decline of Jeter, Jorge, and Mo, and it got us nowhere.
Agreed, and I don’t want to come off sounding like I’m burying the guy. But as you and I both said, it’s something to consider.
BTW-I wouldn’t use Jeter as exhibit A right now. It’s fair to wonder about him, too.
A-Rod carried us in the playoffs last year and we won the world series… he leads the team in RBI’s this year and we have the best record in baseball… who cares if we overpay for him? We have basically unlimited money, as long as we keep getting results.
Don’t bury Alex Rodriguez. Dude is fine.
great article .when a player is signs with a team he should get the most he can..god bless him.but as a provision, their should be a clause to protect an owner. he is paying for a pure product. if a guy test positive for roids they have the right to make their contract null and void..i feel an owner is a victim of fraud,if he thinks he is buying something thats not. if we went and bought a porshe, and it turned out to have a volkswagon engine, we would sue the company and get our money back.. i was a hugh arod fan..i still root for him, but we can see he is a product of the roid era..he can break bonds record …i mean aarons record..no way he should make the hall..along with palmiero bonds and all the rest..they fooled all the fans in this country, and robbed their hugh salaries .all frauds..
yuck. you should write for the NYDN.
Do you really think the Yankees are victims in this? There was a good article on this a few years back that explains how NY makes this contract work…….http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-gennaroarod112707
Hi Jon.no ,I don’t think they are total victims.. They profit hugh from arod..they not only sign for talent..they sign for how marketable a player is…example.. irabu..matsui..i think owners want to keep a wide base of people. hispanic ..black, asian, .they now market the world not just the U.S. and some owners i believe turn a blind eye towards what they may have thought..but those roid guys put people in the seats..and turn on cable.. Arod is a deflating balloon..stat wise.arod is just an example i am using ..but if the union .players asso. ownership..the players them selves and of coarse the, head in the sand boob ..selig.. want to fix it ..olympic testing…and if caught ..void contract.what happened to hafner..sizemore..tejada..i think what we are seeing is a correction..not unlike the housing market..the numbers are getting legit..manny getting caught and losing 7 or 8 mil..woke a guy like arod..he got his pay day..he is not going to risk 11mil first offense..so if you have a void contract on violation..we will see pure baseball again..i believe everyone on this site ..loves a pure baseball game. yeah..i am rooting real hard for arod to hit 800 homers as a yank..
When FanGraphs predicts his value to the team they are leaving out marketability and what he contributes in the playoffs. I agree that A-Rod is the most untradable person in the league, but at least for now I don’t think the Yankees are actually overpaying him.
His contract is why Hal now runs the family team and Hank now runs the family horse farm.
that was funny ,but truth is often found to be humorous.