Has Robinson Cano become more selective?

This season Cano is hitting .363/.405/.617. His IsoD is .042, just slightly above his career line of .033. But, his overall numbers are the best they’ve ever been this far in the season. (Last year through 51 games his OPS was .845.) As we turn the calendar to June I thought I’d test my hypothesis. Is Robbie more selective this year?

All data are from Fangraphs. I’m including data from this season, last season and Cano’s breakout 2006.

(By the way, through 51 games last season the Yankees were 30-21, one game behind this year’s pace.)

My hypothesis is wrong (for the second time). Robinson is walking more, but he’s striking out more as well. In fact, his discipline has declined in almost every relevant measure. He’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone, slightly fewer inside the zone (probably an insignificant difference, but still), and more pitches in general, compared to last season.

Cano’s improvement is either due to his higher BABIP (currently a career high) or his HR/FB rate, also a career high. These two stats are related. Homers don’t count toward balls hit in play. As a result, more homers reduces both the numerator and denominator from BABIP. Furthermore, most high flies that don’t carry are caught. This means that a lot of Cano’s increase in BABIP is attributable to his increased power. Both the increase in BABIP and homers are increasing his overall numbers.

If the increase in homers is a season long phenomenon, then Cano’s improved numbers may last the season. If this is a statistical aberration (like Derek Jeter‘s bad play early in May) then Robbie may slow down as the season wears on.

One final note jumps out at me from Robbie’s stats: the dude just hammers pitches. His contact rates, both inside and outside the zone, are high. If only he could learn some discipline.