A.J. Burnett’s K/9 is at an uncharacteristically low 6.60 so far in 2010. That mark would be the lowest of his career since 2000, when he started 13 games (82.2 IP) for the Marlins in his second bit of action as a Major Leaguer (6.21 K/9). As a guy who was signed because of his strikeout abilities–career 8.28 K/9–this is pretty troubling. Let’s look at the ramifications of the lack of strikeouts before we get to any possible causes.
Because of the lack of strikeouts–and a fairly sharp increase in homers given up–A.J.’s FIP is all the way up to 4.96 (xFIP of 4.67). I thought that, perhaps, the lack of strikeouts would be reason for Burnett’s low strand rate (70.3), but it turns out that’s not really the case. That mark isn’t too far off of A.J.’s career percentage–71.9%–and there doesn’t seem to be any correlation between his strand rate and his K/9 in any given season. It appears that the only going up because of the lack of strikeouts–aside from the FIP–is his HR/9, but that link is rather tenuous. Let’s look at the batted ball data and see what that tells us.
Starting at the top, there’s A.J.’s BABIP. It’s at .308 this year, which isn’t all that high. His career mark is .295 so there isn’t much variance here. Burnett’s LD%, 16.8, is actually below his career rate of just over 18% so he’s not getting hit overly hard. Other than that, though, there isn’t a whole lot of change in his batted ball data. However, it’s worth noting that his HR/FB% is higher this year (12.5) than it has been for his career (10.4). So, when guys do hit balls in the air, they’re hitting it with authority.
So, let’s get to the crux of it: why is A.J. getting fewer strikeouts? I looked at Burnett’s Pitch F/X numbers to see what I could find there.
As you can see, he’s getting more swings and misses on his fastball this year, but the big difference is on the curveball. Last year, he got a swing and miss on number two nearly 17% of the time. This season, that’s down to 12.4%. As logic would follow, that curveball is being put into play more often in 2010 than it was in 2009. His curveball was worth 1.49 runs per 100 pitches last year. This year? -0.53. That pitch is Burnett’s punch out pitch and this year, it hasn’t been as effective as it should be or as Burnett wants it to be.
LIKE TYA ON FACEBOOK
- TYA To Merge With It’s About The Money, Stupid
- What about Kevin Youkilis?
- Teix Now Front And Center On The “Needs To Produce” Radar
- Cashman: Heathcott A Dark Horse Candidate
- A Dog Chasing Cars
- Outfield Trade Targets
- The Problem With Brett Gardner
- A Look At Relief Prospect Branden Pinder
- The Yankees Should Be Realistic, Put Team on Short Leash in 2013
- Briefly discussing the internal options to replace Curtis Granderson
- Christina on Game Thread: Angels versus Yankees, Saturday July 14th
- walkfit platinum reviews on The TYA staff on the Yankees’ television and radio broadcast teams
- essentialtexting.com on Open Thread | Game 3 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees | Sunday, April 3, 2011
- www25.tok2.com on Sabermetrics Doesn’t Have A Monopoly on Not-Stupid: Mike Trout is the AL MVP
- グッチ 財布 on Sunday Links-Joba’s Timetable, Comparing eras, Pineda
- raspberry ketone diet 1200 on Sabermetrics Doesn’t Have A Monopoly on Not-Stupid: Mike Trout is the AL MVP
- Free riot codes on Off-Topic
- Fran on The Great Subway Race
- sleeping bag hand Orientation on What about Austin Romine?
- camping stove heat diffuser on What about Austin Romine?
TagsA.J. Burnett Alex Rodriguez Andy Pettitte Austin Romine Baltimore Orioles Bartolo Colon Boston Red Sox Brett Gardner Brian Cashman Bullpen CC Sabathia Chien-Ming Wang Cliff Lee Curtis Granderson David Robertson Dellin Betances Derek Jeter Francisco Cervelli Freddy Garcia Game Recap Hiroki Kuroda Ivan Nova Javier Vazquez Jesus Montero Joba Chamberlain Joe Girardi Johnny Damon Jorge Posada Manny Banuelos Mariano Rivera Mark Teixeira Melky Cabrera Michael Pineda New York New York Yankees Nick Johnson Nick Swisher Phil Hughes Prospects Rafael Soriano Red Sox Robinson Cano Russell Martin Tampa Bay Rays Yankees