April has been a difficult month for the Yankees the past few seasons. Subpar April performances in 2007, 2008 and 2009 earned the team a reputation for being slow starters.
The Bombers looked poised for a rough start to this season as well. The schedule-makers seemingly saw fit to punish the Yankees for winning the World Series with a brutal April. The defending World Champs opened the season, on the road, in Boston and then Tampa. The team only got to play seven games in the Bronx and was shipped out to the West Coast to boot. Making matters worse, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson have all slumped at some point in April (or the whole month, in a few cases).
In the face of such strong headwinds, the team of course proceeded to bust out of the box to a scorching 15-7 record in April. At one point the Bombers were 11-3, or, as a friend of mine put it, “on pace to win more than 120 games.” If not for the utter lack of contributions from Javier Vazquez the Yankees may have fared even better this April.
The early success has positioned the Yankees well for the remainder of the season. The team has won despite poor performances from future hall of famers. The starting rotation has been phenomenal. Unlikely heroes (Gardner, Brett) have stepped up while the big guns work out their kinks. The strong April start may prove to be a boon in the ultra-competitive AL East once all the contenders are in mid-season form.
Here’s what the offense did in April 2010:
For fun I’ve included what the team’s castaways are doing, and last season’s April stats for the regulars. All the data is for April only, except for OPS+ which includes one day of May.
The offense has been uneven. Only Derek Jeter, Jorge Poasad, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner are playing well. As mentioned earlier in the post, the rest of the regulars are slumping, badly in some cases.
Incredibly, the performing Yankees are picking up the slack for those who are slumping. Jeter’s relatively low OBP aside, the Captain is off to a better start this year than last year, by a wide margin. Even more amazing, Brett Gardner has a higher wOBA than Jeter. That is … stunning.
I happen to be a big Grit Gardner fan, simply because I’m not sold on Carl Crawford. I believe in Crawford’s talents and his ability to perform for the next few seasons, but I don’t want to see my team pay him $60-$70 million dollars. He’s a career 104 OPS+ hitter whose contributions can be found for less money elsewhere. Right now Gardner is earning the left fielder’s job and he’s doing it for a lot less money than we’ll need to pay Crawford.
Which brings me to Robinson Cano, naturally. Did you know he’s my new favorite Yankee? Did you know he’s going to win a batting title someday? Did you know he is the first Yankee ever to hit .400 in the month of April?
Cano has been so hot that there is no point in analyzing his performance. Although I will say that apparently Joe Girardi has asked Kevin Long to keep a fire extinguisher in the dugout because Cano’s bats burst into flame every time he touches them. As I write this I’m watching Sunday’s game, and by the looks of things Cano’s hot hitting is going to continue.
Mark Teixeira was for all intents and purposes, as Mike Mussina once said (of Derek Jeter no less), “0 for April”. So far in May he has 6 hits. I take back what I wrote Friday. Apparently the dude does have an on/off switch because April ended and suddenly his hits are dropping.
The nature of those hits has been particularly encouraging. Tex is finding holes in the infield, making contact and getting on base. It’s about time. Mark, never do this again.
Larry’s man Nick Johnson is also off to a bad start. Unlike Tex, Johnson is drawing a lot of walks. His OBP is high enough that he’s helping the team. It’s been mentioned before, but should be noted once again that Johnson and Tex both have miserable BABIPs. Johnson’s is only .189 versus .309 for his career. While it pains me to watch him struggle to hit safely, the odds are in his and the team’s favor that his hits will start falling soon.
Below are preseason wOBA projections from Bill James, CAIRO, CHONE and Marcel, along with the average of those projections and ZIPS Update, which is accurate through Saturday’s action but does not include yesterday afternoon’s games. The data help bring to light just how bad Johnson and Teixeira have been.
As you can see, Tex was projected to have a wOBA right around .400. To put things in perspective, last season his wOBA was .402. Now, ZIPS has updated its wOBA projection for Teixeira to .360, which is less of an offensive contribution than Derek Jeter is projected to give the team.
The projection is surprising because Tex did something similar last year, and now that he’s had two consecutive good days in May his numbers are very similar to where they were at this point last season. I’ll be curious to see anot
her ZIPS Update around the All-Star break.
her ZIPS Update around the All-Star break.
Johnson, meanwhile, has really helped his numbers with his high OBP. His updated projection isn’t that much lower than his preseason projection.
It’s also a bit concerning to see A-Rod’s ZIPS Update wOBA now projected at a rather un-A-Rod-like .383, a pretty significant drop from his .402 average projection (though clearly not as precipitous as Teixeira’s fall).
The big offensive story lines — Cano and Gardner, Tex and Stick — have overshadowed A-Rod’s and Granderson’s struggles, a bit. Curtis, unfortunately, is now on the 15 day disabled list and Joe Girardi sat Alex yesterday. It’s frustrating for me as a fan to watch two of my favorite players struggle, but I firmly believe that come July both guys will be right where we want them to be, provided Curtis’ injury isn’t too severe.
Here’s a look at the Yankees’ pitching in April:
One of these things is not like the others. Javier Vazquez has been just awful so far for the Yankees. Interestingly, his stats indicate that he may be due to pitch better. He couldn’t pitch much worse.
For those who don’t know, FIP tries to measure how effective a pitcher has been on those things he controls — home runs, strikeouts, etc. It tries to remove the defense from the ERA equation. The stat is informative, but it unduly harms pitchers who rely on a lot of ground balls, like Mariano Rivera. xFIP is actually a forecast of what a pitcher’s FIP is likely to be in the near future, according to The Hardball Times.
According to these two stats, Javy hasn’t been quite as horrible as one might think. Make no mistake, he’s been bad, but it looks like he may also be the victim of bad luck. Apparently the defense behind him has been lacking. He’s forecast to have a much improved FIP because xFIP tries to estimate what a pitcher’s FIP would be if the fly balls he gives up turn into home runs at the average rate for MLB. I am interpreting the discrepancy between Javy’s FIP and xFIP as evidence that a higher proportion than average of the fly balls he gives up have been carrying as homers.
If these stats are correct then Javy may be in a position to turn it around soon, although he’s not going to be breaking any (good) records this year. For my part, I’m not convinced. Javy gave up a couple of wall scrapers to Andruw Jones yesterday, but otherwise most of the homers have been legitimate, as far as my eyes can tell. Sometimes a pitcher gives up a lot of homers because he gets unlucky about where a fly ball is hit. Other times the pitcher stinks. Javy, my friends, stinks.
I hope my take on it is wrong. I like Vazquez and believe that he can be a valuable asset to the team. Unfortunately, he’s a total head case. New York eats those kinds of players alive. Let’s hope he gets it together soon.
The rest of the starting rotation has been breathtaking. CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes both took no-hitters into the 8th inning. A.J. Burnett is averaging only 2.43 walks per 9 innings, versus 4.22 last season. Finally, Andy Pettitte has turned back the clock for one more season.
The starters are going deep into games, and giving the offense a chance to win every day that Vazquez doesn’t start. Which is all very helpful, because the middle relief has been uneven. While the team has gotten good performances from many of its relievers, David Roberston and Damaso Marte have been awful. Mark Melancon has been called up to replace Granderson. He may wind up taking Robertson’s job.
Bullpen shuffles are nothing new for the Girardi Yankees. The team replaced half its relievers in 2008 and 2009. It was likely to happen again this season. Bullpen management is one of Joe Girardi’s strengths. I expect good things come June.
Finally, Mariano Rivera has given up zero runs this year. His velocity appears to be up as well, now that he is a year removed from shoulder surgery. So far all the evidence points to another solid season from the Yankee closer.
It’s easy to feel pretty good right now if you’re a Yankee fan. Had I been told in March that in April Nick Johnson and Mark Teixeira would hit below the Mendoza line and Alex Rodriguez would set a career record for his worst home run output in a calendar month, I would have guessed the team’s record would be 7-15, not 15-7. It’s exciting because, as Larry put it in an email, “these guys haven’t forgotten how to play.” Our 2-3-4 hitters may not win the MVP this season, but I do believe they’ll perform to expectations as the season matures.
When that happens, watch out.
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5 Responses to Yankeeist’s April 2010 Wrap-Up
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TIQ IQ
Really good post, just one correction: Other Yankees have hit .400 in April before (O'Neill hit .448 one April), but Cano is the first Yankee to hit .400 with 8 HR.
Glad you liked the post. Thank you for the correction. You are absolutely right. I forgot about Paul O'Neil, who did hit .448 in April in the strike shortened 1994 season. Just sloppy work there on my part.
Thanks Andrew; appreciate the kind words.
Mike,
I like Gardner a lot. if i had to draft a team to play a game tonight, i would pick Crawford over Gardner, but baseball is a business, and I think the Yankees should not sign Crawford next fall and move forward with Gardner.
I think Javy is a good player and he'll come around; although Tex has had an awful April, he's a good player and he'll come around. Why has their been so much heavy media criticism on Javy but Tex, for the most part, has gotten a pass. I know Tex always starts slow and he comes around, but wasn't April 2010 the worst month of his entire career? this seems like cause for as much alarm as Javy's performance, but its not happening. i'm glad, i just dont think Javy deserves the full brunt of the criticism. as you pointed out, others are struggling.
~Jamie
Javy is taking all the heat because the team is losing his starts.
Tex is getting a pass because the team is on fire otherwise. If the Yankees were running pace with the Red Sox right now no one would like Tex. He took monster heat last year for his slow start.
If the team begins to slow, with the injuries for example, expect Stick, Tex and ARod to come under the microscope, big time.