Robinson Cano’s volcano-hot April has attracted the attention of the baseball universe. He’s been recognized as one of the best 2nd basemen in the AL for sometime, but now he’s making a case for being included among the game’s elite players.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Robbie’s 2009 offensive line of .320/.352/.520 translated into a VORP of 50.3, which was 3rd-best among all 2nd basemen in either league. Only Chase Utley and Ben Zobrist ranked higher than Cano.
Prior to Monday night’s game, Robbie was hitting .387/.433/.763, which translates into a VORP of 20.3. That’s the best in baseball at any position. It’s unlikely that Cano will keep up his current pace (OK, it’s all but assured) but how much of a dropoff should we anticipate?
Last season Robbie shot out of the gate as well. But he couldn’t keep up the pace. In May and June he played to the league average, and his overall numbers deflated somewhat. Then, he turned it on again after the All-Star break, a time during which he’s been a beast throughout his entire career.
If Robinson’s post-All-Star surge can be taken as a given then the coming two months will determine what kind of 2010 he has, and just how good a player he has become. He can slow down considerably. So long as he remains a powerhouse in the late summer months, he will still emerge this year as one of the best in baseball.
In January 2008 the Yankees broke their own rules and signed Cano, then a cost-controlled player, to a 4-year extension. Normally the team deals with young players on a year-by-year basis. Unheralded at the time, the $30 million contract may have been one of Brian Cashman’s best decisions in recent years. Last season alone Cano was worth $21 million. He’s been worth $6.2 million this year, and it’s not even Memorial Day.
Robbie is a free agent after 2012, assuming the Yankees exercise their option year on him, which the team almost certainly will. 2012 will be his age 29 season. Last year BP rated him as the 25th-best player in all of baseball. He ranked ahead of Carl Crawford, who is due to receive $60-$70 million beginning next year, his age 29 season. He also ranked ahead of Ryan Howard.
Could Robinson Cano be working his way toward a $100 million payday? He’s certainly on the right team. Recent talk has focused on Mark Teixeira as the best player on the Yankees three to four years from now. Is the media looking at the wrong infielder?
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3 Responses to What will Robbie Cano be worth?
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TIQ IQ
I don't know that I would commit $100M to Robbie. It isn't necessarily the money but the years that that would entail.
Cano has always been a free swinger. It seemed like this year he was becoming a much more patient hitter, at least from what I saw of him, but a quick glance at Fangraphs tells me that while he seems to swing at the first pitch a little less often, all the other swing numbers are right around his career norms. He isn't a big walker, and gets away with it because his incredibly quick wrists allow him to make contact and stay alive on almost anything.
My biggest worry about him long term is what happens when his wrists lose a half a step. I think Cano will have a very high peak but I don't see him aging gracefully and a $100M contract could too easily turn into a Howardian albatross.
I think it all comes down to what happens over the next couple of seasons. Cano has only been able to raise his OBP through his batting average. His IsoD remains around .050 for his career, or lower.
If he can keep his average up for a few seasons, I struggle to see why he wouldn't be in line for 5 years, $100 million if he's a free agent at 30.
Fortunately, we don't need to worry about that for a while.
I'm inclined to agree with JGS, Mike. As exciting as Cano's start has been, we all know he's due to cool off.
Unless he ends up being a .390 wOBA hitter for the next three seasons, I don't think he's going to merit $20M/year.