Hughes confident in his heater

Here’s something I wrote regarding Phil Hughes back in early February:

In 2009, working primarily as Mariano Rivera’s setup man, Hughes’ fastball averaged 93.7 mph. In 2008, as a starter, Hughes’ velocity averaged nearly 3 mph less at 91.2 mph. The noticeable uptick in velocity can help to explain the changes in Hughes’ demeanor from 2008 to 2009 as he was simply working with more gas last year, in a relief role (he could let it “fly”), as opposed to two years ago. As stated by Piliere, Hughes had “more confidence in his fastball command,” and, obviously, it is a lot easier to believe in your fastball when you throw it harder since added velocity means not having to worry as much about your overall location or control. The numbers bare this out with regards to swing percentage. In 2008, while in the rotation, hitters only swung at 16.5% of the pitches Hughes threw outside of the zone – he throws his fastball the most, so many of those off-the-plate offerings were fastballs – whereas, in 2009, hitters swung at 25.7% of the pitches Hughes threw that were outside the strike zone. Also, hitters swung at more pitches in the zone a season ago – 69.0% compared to 64.4% in 2008 – while making less contact (82.5% in 2009 as a reliever versus 91.5% in 2008 as a starter). Thus, pitching out of the ‘pen coaxed an extra 3 mph (roughly) out of Hughes’ California-bred arm, which basically led to his now vaunted confidence and celebrated aggressiveness.

This big question, of course, is whether or not this confidence, which was so essential to the Yankees in 2009, will remain with Hughes if he is reinserted into the rotation, where he will lose the added velocity he gained last season.

Obviously, so far this season, the fastball I wondered about has been central to Phil Hughes’ success. Though he is not throwing the four-seamer as hard as he was as a reliever, at 92.8 mph, on average, Hughes’ fastball velocity is still very impressive (and we might even see glimpses of 95-96 in a given start). Plus, the above average movement he gets on it, particularly the vertical movement – 11 inches and the league average is 8.8 – adds to its overall effectiveness. After a good year with his four-seamer in 2009, following a poor year with the pitch in 2008 (which can be attributed to lesser velocity), Hughes has picked up where he left off. With the offering being as good as it is, Hughes is throwing it a lot (just over 52% of the time) and he’s throwing it for strikes (close to 70% of the time).

Basically, Hughes’ fastball confidence remains because the pitch continues to be a weapon for him. There hasn’t been a significant or substantial drop in velocity and the movement is definitely there. In retrospect, last year’s stint in the bullpen certainly helped the Yankees in 2009, but it also seems to have helped Hughes’ future as a pitcher.

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