On the season, Brett Gardner, the Yankees’ speedy left fielder, is batting a very impressive .346/.430/.432. Even with an abnormally high BABIP of .382, Gardner’s fleet-footed ways will allow him to maintain a BABIP close to .320-.330 or so, meaning that his numbers won’t completely flat line with a regression. He could still end the season well above ZiPS’ current projection of .279/.356/.371. With that said, I want to point to an intriguing number for Gardner that might help to explain why he is hitting as well as he has this year.
100%–that’s the number. While the league average for contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone this season is 88.1%, Brett Gardner’s contact rate on pitches in the strike zone stands at 100%. It seems he is hitting strikes whenever he swings at them (the 100% must be a rounded figure, albeit even with that occurring, it would mean his contact rate is very close to 100%). The key here is that Gardner is not swinging at many strikes. In fact, his swing rate on pitches in the zone is currently 39.5%, the lowest mark in the majors (the season average for the league is… 63.2%). From this, we can gather that Gardner is being particularly selective with the pitches he sees in the strike zone and, when he decides to actually swing at a pitch in the zone, he tends to hit it. This is an interesting situation. It is not as though he is swinging at everything and hitting everything. He is swinging at a very small percentage of the strikes he sees, and he is hitting them with freakish regularity.
What does this mean? I’m not sure, really. Gardner is being very selective in the zone and is identifying pitches he can handle, allowing him to pick and choose what he should go after. When he decides to attack a chosen strike, he almost always puts his bat on the ball. A low swing percentage on balls in the zone and a high contact rate on balls in the zone seems like a pretty positive combination, as it signals that a hitter knows his limitations and knows what he can hit (maybe I’m not seeing something, though, so feel free to comment away below). It will be interesting to see how this inverse relationship looks in a few months.
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One Response to Gardner swinging at what he can handle
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TIQ IQ
I’m surprised by the fact that despite his decision to be more aggressive he’s operated from a wait for strike one stance most of the season. Clearly its been successful to this point but it seems he’s almost always 0-1 every at bat. He’s definitely adopted an approach though, one which capitalizes on what you say he’s done here, recognize his limitations and strengths and stay within himself. He’s been a joy to root for this season.