[image title="javier-vazquez" size="full" id="17732" align="left" linkto="full" ] [image title="phil-hughes-smi2" size="full" id="17733" align="center" linkto="full" ]
I was having a discussion this morning with @NYBD on twitter, and he raised an interesting question that I wanted to pose to you: if the Yankees had known that Phil Hughes would be as good as he has been thus far, would they have made the move for Javier Vazquez? To elaborate, let’s assume that Hughes finishes the year with 14-16 wins and an ERA below 4.00. If you had guaranteed to Brian Cashman that Hughes would turn in that sort of season, would he have felt it necessary to bring in Javier Vazquez and relinquish Arodys Vizcaino? Or would he have allowed Hughes to be the 4th starter and gone with Joba Chamberlain or possibly Alfredo Aceves at #5?
I happen to think that Vazquez would be a Yankee no matter what the Yankees expected out of Hughes. The allure of Vazquez had a lot less to do with his sub-3.00 ERA in the NL last year and a lot more to do with the fact that he is practically a lock for 200 league average innings every year. With Hughes on an innings limit, Andy Pettitte aging, and the two horses at the front of the rotation having thrown a lot of innings last year, Vazquez represented a quality insurance policy against injury. Having 200 guaranteed innings in the rotation is something that takes a lot of pressure off the GM, and the quality level of Phil’s 170 innings does not really impact those considerations.
Conversely, one could argue that Cashman made the move with the playoffs in mind. After being forced to use just 3 starters in last year’s postseason, Brian wanted to assure that he would have 4 solid starters come playoff time. Under this angle of reasoning, Hughes stepping up and becoming a reliable rotation member might have precluded a move for a veteran such as Vazquez. A playoff rotation with Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and an effective Hughes would be more than adequate, and would probably make the Yankees the favorite in any playoff series. If the move was made with the playoffs as the primary consideration, then Hughes’ emergence might have rendered it moot.
I lean towards the belief that the move would have been made regardless of the emergence of Phil Hughes as a strong starter. How about you?
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6 Responses to Discussion: Do Yanks Trade For Javy If They Know About Phil?
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It’s a good question that I’ve thought of too. I still think the Vasquez trade is a good one. I also think the health history and innings that the Yankees’ top 4 can be counted on for appeared to be the greatest advantage over the Redsox and Rays going into the season. I’m torn though because I hate that Joba is relegated to the pen and even knowing what Hughes would do, you wouldn’t have known that Gardner would be as good as he’s been and adding Vasquez’s salary is what forced Cashman to live with Winn and Thames as the other OFers. Maybe they would have put Joba as the fifth starter and resigned Damon to a 1 year deal instead. In the real world, we still don’t know that Hughes is going to provide 170 innings or that Pettitte and Burnett and CC all stay healthy so you probably still do the deal. You can never have enough pitching.
The trade was a good one if you consider that he gave up an average at best OF and a low A prospect. Vizcaino could turn out to be a top of the rotation starter but chances are that he wont´t. Vazquez was a needed depth.
The interest thing in the question is that it would had revealed the Yankees plans for Joba. With 4 good starters it would had been easy to give the 5th spot to Joba and just let him grow there, so maybe Cashman would had gone to get a more stablished 8th inning reliever.
But my conclusion is that yes, he would had done that trade.
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I agree with you, Mo. The main consideration was the price involved, the deal that Cashman was looking at was Melky, Viz and a wild marginal lefty in Dunn for one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year. Also, don’t forget the Yanks would stand to get 2 draft picks from the team that signs him, as he was a lock Type-A free agent as things stood when the deal was made.
I asked Michael Kay about this the other day, and he said that the Yanks “wanted Melky off the team” for a variety of reasons. One was Gardner (who Girardi loves) and another was they thought he was a distraction to Cano. They also viewed him as a 4th OF and eminently expendable. The deal simply made too much sense to pass up, with or without Hughes’ emergence.
Dunn is far from a marginal lefty.You will be vry surprised how not marginal he is.JAvier sucks and is making big bucks that could have been spent elsewhere.
Like where? Matt Holliday? Jayson Bay? John Lackey? Ben Sheets? Joel Pineiro? As I’ve said before, if Dunn ever turns out to be anything more than a LOOGY (doesn’t mean he won’t be good at it), I’ll eat my hat.