Back in the off season of 07-08, there was one story that dominated all others. One of the best pitchers in Baseball, Johan Santana, was on the trade block. Given Johan’s high salary demands and the prospect of an enormous extension being part of the deal, the universe of potential suitors was relatively small. The Yanks were at the front of the list, with Boston and the Mets as other possibilities. You may recall some of the internal Yankee front office wrangling at the time, where Yankee GM Brian Cashman was dead-set against including Phil Hughes in any package. But he was outvoted by other elements of the Yankee hierarchy, with Hank Steinbrenner at the head of the list. They reluctantly included Hughes, were told by Twins GM Bill Smith that it still wasn’t nearly enough to make a deal, at which point Brian Cashman walked away from the table and never returned. Yankee fans, local sportswriters and pundits were apoplectic when Johan was later traded to the Mets, in what appeared to most observers to be a very weak package of prospects.
But Brian Cashman was a man with a plan. One of the reasons why Cash didn’t want to trade Hughes for Santana was that he was looking at the trade from a long term perspective, not just looking at the time it was to be made. Given Johan’s somewhat smallish build (6’0″ 195) for a power pitcher, he profiled as the type of player who would typically break down and/or decline in his early 30s. Locking him up until age 36 looked like the type of deal GMs regret halfway through. As a 21 year old with an ideal pitcher’s frame (6’5″ 240) who was the total package according to scouts, Phil Hughes projected to have his best years ahead of him. So looking down the road, just as Johan would be entering his decline phase as a player, Hughes would be entering his prime. Cash didn’t want to repeat the mistakes of the 04-08 teams loaded with aging, overpriced and under performing veterans. He insisted on total control of Baseball Ops in 2005 for the purpose of reversing this trend, and he was sticking to his guns.
Looking at things as they stand today, it appears Cashman’s long term projection appears to be coming to pass. Johan Santana and Phil Hughes careers are presently going in two opposite directions. I’m not talking about just last night’s horrendous start from Johan, but of the recent trend line of both pitchers. Johan’s fastball has been down all year, sitting in the 88-90 MPH range for his first 6 starts. This is nothing new, as the link shows his velocity has been declining annually for the past 4 seasons. While he’s been an effective pitcher for the Mets over his first two+ seasons with the team, Mets fans have never seen the guy who threw 96+ in his prime. His Walk and SO rates are also trending in the wrong direction, despite pitching in the National League in a terrific pitcher’s ballpark. He has also had two (relatively minor) surgeries in his two seasons with the team, one on his knee and another on his elbow.
The Mets gave up nothing for him, so the trade always made more sense for them considering the prospects involved and where they were as a franchise at the time. Twins GM Bill Smith was said to be asking the Yanks for Hughes+, the ‘+’ being some combination of an outfielder (Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson) and another lesser minor league arm, with Jeffery Marquez mentioned in some packages. Given the Twins love for defensive-minded CFs and the fact they chose Carlos Gomez from the Mets over their other OF prospects, it stands to reason the OF included in the deal would have been either Gardner or A-Jax. There were reports at the time that Bill Smith didn’t love Melky, so including one of the younger, more talented players would have come as no surprise.
By no means am I arguing that this is this a slam dunk win at this point for Brian Cashman. There are still 4 1/2 more years to go on Johan’s contract, and much can change on both sides between now and then. You also have to factor in that the Yanks missed the playoffs in 08, and that Johan would have almost certainly helped them get there that year. The Mets have got 2 good seasons out of Santana starting for them every 5th day, while Hughes 08 season was a big disappointment and his successful 09 campaign was limited to bullpen duties. Johan has been far more valuable to the Mets in the 08/09 seasons than Hughes was to the Yanks. But long term, I think the decision Cashman made was right, and as Hughes rounds into the pitcher we all hoped he could be it’s time to give Brian some props for his patience and foresight. Johan will be a very expensive, declining pitcher just as Hughes is entering his prime years making no money. Long term, I think Cashman made the right call.
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11 Responses to 2008 offseason redux-Hughes and Santana heading in opposite directions
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TIQ IQ
(On another website–a football one actually) there were several people that argued against the trade, for many of the same reasons you listed. A large percentage of those in favor of the trade said that Hughes would never be a front end starter (many of this group also described him as a AAAA pitcher or having a ceiling of a 4th or 5th starter-a description I recall hearing this spring by some of the folks that insisted Joba win their competition).
I thought one of the most compelling reasons to not make the trade was Santana’s historical comps: almost all were lights out right up to their 30th birthday, but soon after started breaking down.
BTW didn’t some packages suggested by the media and a lot of Yankee fans include Cano?
You are right about Cano. I remember, at the time, debating with hordes of Yankee fans who believed that because of Cano’s one off year (.271), he was worthless and should be disposed of. At the time, I predicted that, sometime in the next 2-4 years, Cano would make a run at .400. Might not this be the year?
a clarefication—Whereas some media did include Cano in the Twins demands, and many, many fans were willing to include him, I remember no indication at all that the Yankees were actually really considering it.
BBI? I argued until I was blue in the face against the trade. I said this was going to happen back then. I’m so happy for Hughes and even happier for me :-)
I think one of the main things that Cashman should be given credit for is for devising a long term stategy to counter the outrageous practice of other MLB teams & agents having one price for the Yankees and another (lower) price for everyone else.
This practice grew up over 2 -3 decades, and I believe was due to George S. wanting some player, he would bully his organization to get it, no matter what the cost. His public comments, sometimes, undercut his people’s negotiating power. Now, I am a fan of George S., and respect what he has done, and indeed, liked it many times in the 70′s and 80′s, when he forced his people to go out and get big names. But an unintended negative consequence of this approach was the realization that other teams could, and, quite too frequently, did get the Yankees to overpay for players, when it was clear that other teams would not.
In recent years this practice infuriated me, as I read the inside of potential trades. Other teams & agents were were becoming even more outrageously arrogant in their demands from the Yankees. If it angered me, I can imagine how Cashman must have felt.
This potential trade here, in your posting, was the first time that I detected a major change in the Yankees way of doing things. And in Hank S,. comments after the trade broke down, it was obvious to me that Cashman had convinced the new Yankee Administration, that this was the way to go in the future—walk away when the price was too high, simply because it was the Yankees. At the time, I was extremely mad that the Twins would have the gall to ask for so much from the Yankees, yet let Santana go for a basket of garbage from the Mets. In the end, I was glad that Cashman didn’t pull the trigger, even though I lusted for Santana.
I think Cashman did a similar thing in the Damon situation, when Boras was trying to get the Yankees to overpay. The battle is far from won, though, as other teams still try it. Witness the Riccardi demands from the Yankees for Halliday, and what he eventually went for from Philly. No one likes to get held up, all the time.
I believe that this subtle element is a story that has yet to be fully brought out. Thanks for bringing it up.
As a fan, I get furious and disappointed in the short run, but it is the only way to go to keep the Yanks on top over the long haul.
I agre with 99% f your post, but on the other hand; I don’t necessarily think it’s unfair, if you’re trading away the best pitcher in the game, to demand more in return from a team in your division than from a team in the other league. That makes pretty good sense, for a while anyway, from a competition standpoint. The Twins did the same with Johan, to the Yankees and Red Sox, because they didn’t want to have to go through him in the playoffs.
Steve, I forgot to say–a very good post. Summed it up very well. Agree with it all. You should keep doing these “revisits” of past major controversial points, years later. i enjoy them. I’ll be looking for the sum up to the Granderson trade in about 3 or 4 years. lol This makes everyone revisit past viewpoints in current time, and better prepares us for future analysis.
Of course, it usually takes 10 yrs, or more to fully evaluate trades, or potential trades, espicially those involving young players.
I remember thinking at the time that it was sort of crazy, and then being fairly peeved when the pitching was horrible in 2008, but in retrospect, I’ll say the no-trade was an unmitigated slam dunk. Just leaving aside Hughes and Santana, Marquez was traded for Swisher, Ian Kennedy was a linch-pin in the Granderson deal (along with AJAX, obviously), and signing Santana to an extension would have meant no Sabthia. So the Yankees could have Santana, or they could have Hughes, Sabathia, Granderson, Gardner, and Swiher. And if they had Santana, they’d have to have someone other than those guys in their positions. Walking away from the table was a total win, in every sense, for Cashman and the Yankees. They won the World Series two years later for Christ’s sake, and won a non-paltry 89 games in 2008 for that matter.
Steve…great post!
I wish more people could think and react to trades with a little restraint. We don’t have the information the Yankees do, and a lot of time the reports are just hearsay not fact.
Will there be a mistake made in trades…heck yes! No one is perfect!
Also, not to be overlooked is that CC wouldn’t be a Yank right now if they got Santana.