From the charts above, one can see that the Yankees’ top three starters in 2009 – CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte – when paired with Jorge Posada, often struck out fewer batters and, in fact, walked more batters when compared to their career averages, and to the work done with backup catcher, Jose Molina. While with Molina, the trio actually struck out more batters – in the cases of Sabathia and Burnett, significantly more – and walked fewer batters (an issue that was particularly prevalent for Sabathia and Pettitte). Obviously, with regards to strikeouts and walks, pitchers and the hitters they are facing have the most control over what occurs in an at-bat, however, when one looks at pitching splits like those featured above, it is difficult not to wonder about game-calling and catcher influence.
As Keith Woolner noted back in 1999 – h/t to David Gassko – “if there is a true game-calling ability, it lies below the threshold of detection. There is no statistical evidence for a large game-calling ability, but that doesn’t preclude that a small ability exists that influences results on the field.” If we permit ourselves to believe in catcher influence, at least for the purpose of this article, can one suppose then that Jorge Posada’s game-calling ability is not as effective as Jose Molina’s, based on the charted ’09 statistics? Well, no, because there are contextual factors at play specific to the pitcher that I have not noted which might affect the presented peripherals. For instance, Burnett dealt with a few mechanical issues earlier in the year, when he was paired primarily with Posada. In addition to such issues, there are sample size problems here as well since I only use one season’s worth of data. Still, even with the analytical weaknesses on the table, viewed plainly, these remain notable figures as we approach the start of the new season.
This year, it will be interesting to see how the Yankee pitchers fare with Posada behind the plate. Will CC Sabathia strikeout a low number of hitters when compared to his career average K/9? What about A.J. Burnett? Will Andy Pettitte continue to walk too many hitters while with Posada? These are questions to keep in mind. I also wonder how they will perform in comparison when paired with Francisco Cervelli, who steps in as the new defense-first catcher.
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9 Responses to Posada a poor game-caller?
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Is there any chance offense is down for day games, which would lead to better pitching performances? If a team has a game that ends at 10, go all of the post game crap, go home and fall asleep at 1-2 in the morning, then have to play a day game, wouldn’t that affect them? And since the starting pitcher for the day game didn’t play the night before, he’s obviously well rested. Considering that backup catchers catch the majority of day games after night games, could this actually be a factor? I’d love to see the stats across the board for day vs. night games and see if there is any correlation, as well as seeing if pitchers usually have better stats with the backup catcher catching. I would guess they do, as there is a tiny percentage of backup catchers who are offensively gifted. The backup catcher is almost always defensively minded, and if they could hit, they would be a starter.
Though I agree the small sample sizes (especially for Molina) caution against taking this too seriously, the fact that the same pattern (fewer K’s, more BB’s) is there for all three pitchers should send up a flag.
Interesting numbers. What are Pettitte’s stats with Posada for his career? (as opposed to just 2009)
terrible game caller, afraid of contact, can’t catch guys with hard breaking stuff. example burnett..
What do they do with Cisco next year? When Jesus comes up, does Cervelli go down to Scranton? Or do they trade him? Of course, it depends on how Cervelli, Montero, and Romine do this year, and where Posada is at the end of the year. But it’s never too soon to wonder how it all plays out.
“Still, even with the analytical weaknesses on the table, viewed plainly, these remain notable figures…”
Weak data coupled with strong presentation = strong, if flawed, impressions.
If you want to be fair, display the numbers with the graphs, Chris.
Were the data set large enough to negate anomolies, and the conclusions trustable, then I would say the plan for Montero to catch (badly, as it seems) is seriously flawed. Similar cases, Posada and Montero (doesn’t move well; affinity lacking in game-calling). Pitching efficiency has to be huge in winning, and in maintaining a winnng team, long term.
I love Jorgie’s heart, so it pains me to say. Montero’s candidacy to catch should be judged on defensive prowess. If he fails, showcase him, use him as DH, trade him high.
Given the small sample size, I didn’t draw any conclusions and I’m not sure what displaying the numbers would do here, as the career averages are presented and are useful for comparing the trends in 2009. I just highlighted the numbers, which we should continue to follow this year.
The numbers would let the viewer see how small the samples are.
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